[Westheim]

Addendum to the October post above:
Antonio Gonzalez is not THE ANSWER. But he’s young, he plays all infield positions well (which we will need upon shedding Walker and Thompson) and we won’t compete anyway for anything next season (at the current pace, 81-81 would be a great result). The winter 1989-90, that one will be the important one. Plus we grabbed two prospects, one of which (Randy Powers) could emerge to become a valuable big league hitter. With Sherman I grabbed everything I could get.



PORTLAND RACCOONS Roster Evaluation Report – by Richard Steward, Head Scout, October 31, 1988
Note: scrawls are by me, the GM

The following report has been compiled over the last week. Some players may have to be further analyzed, with support from the medical department of the organization. Players are ranked with up to five stars in parenthesis. If two numbers are given, the first defines the current level of the player, the latter the potential of the player. If one number is given, the player has reached his potential.

Rotation

Good 1-2-3 lineup with Logan Evans (3.0; currently on DL), Kisho Saito (3.5), and Scott Wade (*). A number of candidates are available for the remaining spots, including once 16-game winner Carlos Gonzalez, who had mechanical issues and has a history of injuries. Alejandro Venegas (1.5) and Jerry Ackerman (.5/1.5) do not match up to big league requirements. Top prospect Jason Turner (AAA, 2.5/4.5) should become a star, but may need another half or full season at the AAA level. Other potential future big league starters are Miguel Lopez (AA, 1/4), Gary Montgomery (A, 1/2.5), both at least two years away. Short-term depth is provided by Kiyomitsu Sano (1/2) and Jose Fernandez (1/1.5) at AAA.

No real surprises with the re-evaluation here, except for Evans, who lost a star compared to our former scouts. He’s 33 in January. I see him our #3 starter once he returns. Below that we are in trouble. Looks like Venegas will stay around for another year. Ackerman may or may not clear waivers. The AAA guys don’t help us. Turner needs a wee bit more time and the other guys will be blown up just as well.

Bullpen

There are a few bright spots here, but not too many. Grant West (4.5) is an elite closer and highly reliable. Juan Martinez (4/5) and Ken Burnett (3.5/4) should form a strong R/L setup pair once fully matured. Especially the 24.00 ERA to Burnett last season does not mean anything, he just needs to get into a groove and will succeed. Dirk Campbell (3) is a good veteran able to hold the fort. Pedro Vazquez (2/2.5) may be best suited to a long relief role, as is Emerson MacDonald (2.5). I am not very high on the other pitchers left at the big league level: Jason Bentley (1.5), Travis Brown (1), Yasushi Suto (1), and Jake Pitts (0.5/1). There is NO depth at AAA apart from CL Albert Matthews (3/5), who should be left to develop for another year. Beyond that, there is little potential in the lower ranks apart from AA CL Tony Vela (1/2).

Ouch, that’s a hit here. Steward has trashed not only our bullpen in Portland (for the most part), but also has thrown out *every* *single* reliever in the minor leagues! The exception is Matthews, who struggles with control. We have no depth at all here and need to try and improve through trades or FA signings. If we can’t get the relievers out of our system… a bad bullpen hurts the starters, too. Absolutely needing to improve here.

Catcher

The pair of catchers at the big league level is so strong, it is almost overstuffed with Sam Dadswell (4.5) and David Vinson (4/5). I see more offensive potential in Vinson, but Dadswell can call a better game. Rolled into one they would be perfect. Beyond the major league level, I see no promising talent at all, just a bunch of washed up veterans and kids with questionable talent.

Surprising to see Vinson with a higher potential than Dadswell, but either way it is not a question of one player or the other, but more of philosophy. Do we want a great hitter and good fielder or a good hitter and great fielder? It will depend on the rest of the team, but what team will we field in three years from now? I think we could get a good return in a trade for either, but whom to trade!? Maybe sit it out another year? What use could that have? Argh.

Infield

1B Tetsu Osanai (4.5) may be the best offensive player in the Continental League, with high average and power, but his defense is highly questionable. The other veteran corner infielder, Mark Dawson (3.5) led the majors in home runs last year, but I see him past his peak. Steve Walker (2) and Winston Thompson (1.5) are veteran players that should be replaced by the young players Ben O’Morrissey (4/5) and Matt Higgins (3.5) sooner rather than later. Joe Jackson (2/3) has been rated exceptional offensively before, but can not live up to that. I don’t see him amount to an All Star. With corner infield crowded, he may be left over. Antonio Gonzalez (2.5) is worth more for his defense than his offense, but should hold his own. Juan Ramirez (1) and Carlos Miranda (1/1.5) don’t provide much depth. AA 1B Vincente Rodriguez (1.5) is the only minor league player that stands out the least little bit.

Another roster area trashed, at least as far as the minor leagues are concerned. Plus, Mark Dawson is closing in on the big 35, and is declining? Walker and Thompson will go away anyway. O’Morrissey and Higgins should start as much as possible. We may look for another young middle infielder. Or should we keep Thompson, who bats left-handed? No, we take the draft pick. I guess.

Outfield

Daniel Hall (4), Yoshinobu Ishizaki (4), and Daniel Dumont (3.5/5) would make for a top notch outfield, if either could play center reliably. Glenn Johnston (2/2.5) is a good fit for center. Armando Sanchez (2) is declining in his ability and prone to long slumps. Gustavo Quintanilla (1.5/2) and Kelly Weber (1) may do for backup players, but one should consider an upgrade. Options at AAA include Randy Powers (1.5/2.5), Marcos Costello (2), Neil Reece (1/4), who may take over centerfield eventually, and Bill Stevens (1/1.5). Another top talent is at AA, Vern Kinnear (1/4). There are a few more players, and overall, the outfield causes the least concerns along with catching.

The issue with the Top 3 that can’t play together will be resolved by trading Ishizaki. He would have made a perfect fit last year, had he stayed healthy. In fact, had he stayed healthy, maybe the Raccoons would have fared better and we never would have chopped our team apart in July. Don’t wanna blame him, but on this team, there is only room for one outfielder in his 30s. Hall-Johnston-Dumont or Hall-Johnston-Quintanilla depending on the opposing starter sounds not too shabby, but Quintanilla has to pick up his hitting. Powers, Reece, and Stevens are right-handers at AAA, but Reece will be held back, he needs more time to develop. Reece batted .270 with 21 HR between AA and AAA last year and is our future centerfielder.

*Note that Scott Wade only has two pitches and the game rates him as 1-star player regardless of what he actually does as a starter. He’s rated 1/5.

And guys, I need an honest opinion! Am I over-valueing Daniel Hall because I am emotionally attached to our first ever draft pick? Note that sharp drop of production from '84 to '85. Since then he basically two hot streaks and two cold streaks every season, and can't hit the .270s for a full year anymore. Am I cutting him too much slack?[/B]

Next interesting question: how do we squeeze all the young talent through the rule 5 draft? Once Walker, Thompson, and Sanchez will clear in two weeks, we will have 36 men on there (and Evans on the 60-day DL). Sano, Reece and Powers need to be added definitely, that makes 39. And then there are still prospects left over that may be taken. We may want to hold off on trades for prospects that are rule 5 draft-eligible until December.

There’s still the trade proposal by the Gold Sox on the table. It would shore up our bullpen big time, at the cost of Kelly Weber. Let’s look at this. The Raccoons were awful with southpaw relievers after David Jones was traded in July. The assortment of misery sent out there can not be improved in-house, we need outside help. Their offer, Nate Goodman, has a devastating knuckle curve – if it hits the strike zone, but he always exceeds 2/1 K/BB. He was even the Gold Sox closer in 1987, and has a sub-3 ERA for his career. Weber (our 1981 round 3 pick) is more or less a .260 singles hitter with a bad eye living off his exceptional defense, but apart from Dumont the outfielders we currently have (and are going to retain) are all very good defensively as well. We lose a backup for a setup? Sounds great!

The Gold Sox even offer a prospect (not a good one) on top of that. We will negotiate a bit here, but it seems like Kelly is on the way out.