[Westheim]

Thought experiment I did while failing to sleep last night: Concie Guerin’s career OBP is .342 – which is a bit on the low end for a leadoff batter, and a bit worse than Ingall f.e. (.351). But Concie has been getting better every year, and last year got on base 35.6% of the time. Neil Reece’s career OBP is .371, which is the best on the roster. But you wouldn’t bat Neil Reece leadoff.

So, Concie got on base at a .356 clip last season, having approximately 708 PA. That adds up to 252 times on base. He scored 88 runs.

The three seasons I constantly wet my pants over on-base terror David Brewer donning the brown shirt, he averaged a .420 OBP (roughly, not exactly, this will not be science). He had about 655 PA on average, and was on base 275 times. On average, he scored 93 runs, while stealing less bases than Guerin and with an arguably more successful team behind him.

The difference between Brewer and Guerin as leadoff hitters, comparing 1995-1997 and 1999, was five runs. The difference in their contracts this year is $1,125,000. [When I did this in bed and my mind was racing, without numbers in front of me, I estimated the difference to be 16 runs. Not that that would change anything.] The difference can not be paid for by any team in baseball. No team can afford to pay $200k or more for a single run.

Maybe we don’t have to spend the most money. Maybe we really just need to spend it wisely, split the cherries from the beans and give guys a chance.

There are some guys, however, who had had chances. And they failed. Buell. Tamburrino. Crowe. Those are the players we are looking to move during the rest of the winter. That would free up $600k to put elsewhere.

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There are also a few other things to sort out. Right-handed relief is one of those things. With Chubby Martinez and Lagarde not extended, Tamburrino on the shipment list, and Nordahl and Manuel Martinez scheduled for another round of seasoning in St. Pete, we have nobody left but Daniel Miller, Bob Joly, and Kelly Fairchild. Even by the numbers, we *need* at least one more right-handed reliever, better two.

Maybe Buell could be flipped for one. Tamburrino had no trade value, that was already well established. At best you could piggy-back him with someone. As winter meetings started in Boston on December 3, it was also soon well established that Mike Crowe had no suitors. Another undevourable piece of meat.

Buell was easiest to move and we got into talks with the Crusaders, Indians, and Miners on the first day of the meetings. Looking for right-handed relief, primarily, the Miners had the most interesting player in Paco Barrera, but weren’t willing to trade him for Buell.

On the second day of the meetings, the Warriors offered OF Paul Theobald for Antonio Donis. There were several issues with this offer. I was looking forward to adding a right-handed impact bat. Theobald was not exactly an impact player, since he didn’t hit home runs and was steadily degrading from a .893 OPS season with the Condors in 1996, even though he was only 30. He was also due in excess of $3M the next three years, and was thus unaffordable. Don’t even make me start on why I wasn’t going to trade Donis. Maybe the Warriors needed the salary space? They added two free agents the same day.

That was December 4. The same day, the Indians and Miners traded WITH EACH OTHER, as the Indians sent the reliever that was in talks as a trade bait for Stephen Buell, Kevin Rhodes, to Pittsburgh.

BOOZE!! I NEED BOOZE!!!

The deal with the Crusaders fell through because they wouldn’t trade MR Jose Hernandez for Buell, and had outlandish demands for a second player (think Ralph Ford and up from there).

That night at the bar, I resorted to loading up on Whiskey and a small bowl with these Italian of French or whatever cookies the bartender would readily fill up once I emptied them. He did so with the Whiskey, too. In time I was joined by the Capitals GM, who had his own problems after failing to re-sign their star pitcher Ramón Ortíz before the Gold Sox swooped in and signed him.

I woke up the next morning on the floor of my room with a head the size of a tow truck. Once I crawled down into the lounge to sober up on a few coffees, I eventually overheard the Bayhawks GM talk to someone how he was stunned that the Raccoons had managed to flip one of their outfielders for an ace right-hander.

Raced back up to my room, and really, there was contract. Apparently we had moved Buell for a right-handed reliever that night. Vince gave him 4.5 stars. Vince was sober, by the way. He was stunned, too.

For lunch (which didn’t come long after the coffee), the Salem GM invited me to the grill. Of course he had some business to do. He actually offered a fairly spectacular deal, with LF/RF Jeff MacGruder and MR Willie Young bundled up for - … Randy Farley.

MacGruder WAS an impact bat, having hit 29 home runs this season, and while he was left-handed – 29 home runs! He was also in discussions in the trade talks last year for Gabby De La Rosa, whom we eventually traded to the Stars for Cesar Gonzalez.

But… but Randy?

Now, Young was pretty much worthless for us. MacGruder had received a $950k contract in his final salary arbitration. And … and Randy?

The deal fell through. The Wolves were insisting on Farley, and were not after any of our other starting pitchers, even the prospects. They could have had any other starting pitcher on the roster, except Ralph Ford, but the Wolves insisted on Farley, and that was not a deal I could do. Randy was the real deal and slated to be our Opening Day pitcher. I just … I just couldn’t.

By now it was clear that a first rate bat was not in the books. Not in one sense, and not in the other (financially, and with the available personnel, you know). But - mind the thought experiment. Sometimes, first rate bats will cost so excessive amounts of money and/or talent they're not worth it. So, settle on a second rate bat? That’s what we did. It still has some pop.

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December 3 – The Gold Sox sign ex-WAS SP Ramón Ortíz (166-103, 3.29 ERA) to a 3-yr, $4.62M contract.
December 4 – The Warriors blow $9M on a single day, as they sign 27-yr old ex-LVA LF Javier Encarnación (.292, 47 HR, 408 RBI) for $5.7M over five years, and also add 32-yr old ex-IND CL William Henderson (53-50, 2.46 ERA, 358 SV) for $3.3M over three years.
December 4 – The Indians trade 25-yr old MR Kevin Rhodes (5-4, 4.02 ERA, 1 SV) to the Miners for their 17-year old Puerto Rican development player, OF Felix Gonzalez, and strike another deal with the Blue Sox, sending away 2B Alberto Burgos (.276, 3 HR, 47 RBI) for MR Momsilo Plavsic (4-6, 5.03 ERA, 3 SV).
December 4 – The Raccoons trade LF/RF Stephen Buell (.268, 8 HR, 125 RBI) to the Capitals for MR Elliott Meeks (19-14, 3.60 ERA, 15 SV).
December 6 – The Raccoons strike a deal with the Buffaloes that seems them acquire 28-yr old LF/RF Daniel Richardson (.268, 42 HR, 221 RBI) in exchange for MR Brad Tamburrino (22-15, 3.73 ERA, 17 SV), AAA LF/RF George Wood, and AA SP Tyler Sullivan.
December 11 – Although he’s 40 years old, he’s not done yet: Superstar CL Andres Ramirez (91-105, 2.51 ERA, 686 SV) signs a 2-yr, $2.28M contract with the Cyclones.
December 14 – The Canadiens sign the Crusaders’ former catcher, Antonio Clemente (.274, 29 HR, 336 RBI). The 29-year old gets a 2-yr, $1.42M deal.
December 14 – The Crusaders console themselves with ex-LVA C Andres Manuel (.268, 64 HR, 582 RBI), who signs a 1-yr, $620k deal.
December 15 – The Crusaders also take a risk with 38-year old ex-SFW SP Arnold McCray (224-197, 3.37 ERA), who signs on for 2-yr, $3M.
December 21 – INF Bob Hall (.276, 37 HR, 285 RBI) jumps onto the Bayhawks’ bandwagon for 2-yr, $1.83M. The 26-year old ex-Miner should help the team offensively as defensively.
December 24 – The Capitals and Raccoons exchange minor leaguers, with the Coons adding AAA SP/MR Felipe Garcia in exchange for AAA 1B Harry Jackson.
December 27 – The Gold Sox deal LF/RF Ramón Trinidad (.265, 19 HR, 140 RBI) to the Pacifics for MR Javier Gonzalez (7-8, 3.80 ERA, 5 SV).
December 27 – The Crusaders trade for the Falcons’ 26-yr old 2B Ron Brantley (.299, 1 HR, 19 RBI in 264 AB) in exchange for 31-yr old MR Jose Lopez (45-50, 2.99 ERA, 158 SV) and a non-prospect.
December 30 – The Cyclones are fired up over the addition of ex-BOS INF Haruki Nakayama (.277, 46 HR, 514 RBI), who receives a 3-yr, $2.58M contract.
December 31 – The Loggers sign their 29-yr old 2B/3B Jose Perez (.271, 72 HR, 434 RBI) to a 7-yr, $6.3M extension.

Meeks is in the second year of a 2-yr, $620k contract. Scouted 18/13/10 by Vince, his high octane fastball that reaches 99 mph and has a sink to it that results in lots of groundballs should be a perfect fit to us. BNN rates the deal a 2.9 WAR gain for us, too.

There will be a Daniel roaming left field again. Just like in the old times! Isn’t that great!?

While the prize for Richardson (who bats left-handed, but you CAN’T have everything) looks rather steep, it isn’t quite. Tamburrino is a pure dump. They would have done the deal readily with just Wood and Sullivan. They would have dealt for Nick Brown alone, but he’s the best bet among the three SP prospects we protected from the rule 5 draft just a few weeks ago. Sullivan was the second-best bet, and well Dwight Williams is home run-prone and won’t ever make it in Portland, but we don’t have to tell that to everyone right now.

This signing nails down our lineup for next year. SS Guerin – RF Brady – CF Reece – 3B Gonzalez – LF Richardson – 1B Martin – 2B Ingall – C Mata – P. In reality, Ingall might bat second against left-handed pitching, and we are looking into our options regarding a right-handed backup outfielder now. Luke Newton stays. Chris Parker won’t.

The Richardson deal generates another 5.0 WAR gain for us. We might lose some of the benefits in the long run (Sullivan might become a good pitcher), or even in the short run (someone’s gotta pay for Daniel by next November…), but just those two deals go a long way to improve the roster.

The Jackson-Garcia deal eases the glut at first base, while adding a versatile arm in Garcia, kind of compensating for the earlier trade in which we departed with Sullivan. The downside is that Garcia is on the 40-man roster and will cost $120k.

Another player I looked into before settling on Richardson is Trinidad, who was dealt by the Gold Sox on December 27. He is actually a right-hander, but I found is overall skill set vastly inferior to Richardson’s. Handedness isn’t all…

So far we have parted with 12 players this off season. While I always loved Chubby Martinez and Jackie Lagarde – although way more during their first stints – the only one I’ll be crying after is Kisho Saito.

Financially, the deals added salary, though, and we are now on the brink of going overbudget again. I hate the fact that the budget won’t show contracts of players not on the expanded roster during the offseason.

We still should have another $400k to $600k of room, even accounting for a contract offer to ex-MIL MR Andrew Schaefer, that’s been out there for a month now. I’m still looking into a right-handed backup outfielder.

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Some of the roster depth has been reduced, or maybe reshuffled is a better word. We upgraded our bullpen, we upgraded corner outfield, and it didn't cost us the world. Tyler Sullivan might break out, he might not. Before him in line was former 11th round (!!!!) pick Nick Brown.

At the bottom line: Meeks, Richardson >>> Tamburrino, Buell