[Westheim]

2018 PORTLAND RACCOONS – Opening Day Roster (first set shows 2017 numbers, second set overall; players with an * are off season acquisitions):

SP Jonathan Toner, 27, B:R, T:R (18-9, 1.94 ERA | 70-32, 2.35 ERA) – coming off his second Pitcher of the Year campaign, Jonny Toner will be trying to reach for that elusive triple crown again. For the second time in three years, wins were the thing where he got beat. Might just about be the very best pitcher in the league right now, and he has led the league in ERA three times in four years, in strikeouts twice, and in K/9 three years in a row, with the value steadily rising, reaching 11.4 K/9 in 2017.
SP Tadasu Abe, 26, B:R, T:R (22-10, 3.12 ERA | 35-19, 3.23 ERA) – huge arsenal that allows him to dazzle batters and keep them guessing; led the CL in wins despite being prone to home runs (20 conceded in ’17) in his sophomore season, which came a bit surprising.
SP Hector Santos, 29, B:S, T:R (13-6, 2.50 ERA | 80-60, 3.19 ERA) – sometimes a bit the forgotten man in the rotation, Santos silently led the league in WHIP in 2017 (for the second year in a row!), also thanks to a career-best BABIP (and the lowest in the CL), but his sub-1.5 BB/9 is also a great advantage to keep runners off base. While he failed to strike out 200 last season, he is surely among the best number threes in the game. His slider is the bane of batting, but unfortunately he tends to leave things hanging over the middle from time to time to get clonkered. He’s allowed 122 homers in 1,335 innings, with a career-high of 30 dingers in 2013, which then led the league.
SP Ricky Mendoza *, 34, B:S, T:R (10-11, 5.15 ERA | 107-98, 4.49 ERA, 1 SV) – the Raccoons’ annual attempt to fill the hole at the back end of the rotation hasn’t pitched to a sub-4 ERA since 2011, so the value to be gained here is still uncertain.
SP Nick Brown, 40, B:L, T:L (8-4, 4.53 ERA | 223-130, 2.86 ERA) – the stuff is really gone, and the only way for Brownie to make it through a game is by consistently feeding balls to the infielders. Whether he even keeps the spot in the rotation is entirely up in the air so far.

LR Chet Cummings *, 32, B:R, T:R (0-2, 5.73 ERA | 5-6, 4.12 ERA, 3 SV) – one piece (along with Kaiser) in the Adam Young giveaway, Cummings’ scouting report and track record indicate that he is primarily suited for long relief, and really nothing else.
MR Wade Davis *, 28, B:R, T:R (4-3, 3.90 ERA | 28-37, 4.40 ERA, 3 SV) – groundball pitcher with a basic splitter/sinker combo brought in as free agent to fill the ranks. No Jayden Reed-type numbers of strikeouts are to be expected, although Reed was cheaper than him last year.
MR Seung-mo Chun, 29, B:S, T:R (1-2, 2.88 ERA, 1 SV | 5-5, 3.30 ERA, 3 SV) – routinely handles the seventh inning with great consistency, but he lacks the stuff to put hitters away reliably in close situations, which in our view limits his value in later innings.
MR Jason Kaiser *, 31, B:L, T:L (2-1, 4.50 ERA, 1 SV | 7-6, 3.29 ERA, 2 SV) – Kaiser is a general purpose left-hander with pretty alarming walk numbers that was the other piece that came in return for Adam Young. If things go pear-shaped for Nick Brown (which is something we had to account for), then Kaiser might be the first guy to slide into the rotation.
SU Chris Mathis, 31, B:R, T:R (4-1, 1.56 ERA, 7 SV | 19-10, 2.59 ERA, 20 SV) – oddly unreliable in a closing assignment despite strong overall numbers, Mathis continues to be an enigma to his own front office. He has developed a reputation for streaking, with lights-out stretches alternating with several outings in a row in which he creates a mess or incinerates somebody else’s mess.
SU Ron Thrasher, 30, B:L, T:L (2-3, 2.29 ERA, 6 SV | 27-24, 2.71 ERA, 38 SV) – blessed with an executioner’s stuff, but saddled with a drunkard’s control, Ron continues to strike out 12.3 per nine innings (a career value) while walking close to as many. Terrible choice to bring in with the bases full and the tying run at third, but if you start an inning with him he usually has enough space for his faux-passes.
CL Alex Ramirez, 32, B:R, T:R (3-2, 3.63 ERA, 28 SV| 36-28, 3.41 ERA, 59 SV) – the luxury closer deal that Ramirez got did not pay off for the Critters in 2017, who got a very good first half of the season from Ramirez before he simply stopped retiring people. He is back in the closer’s role due to other options simply not available.

C Mike Denny, 27, B:R, T:R (.261, 17 HR, 67 RBI | .252, 33 HR, 134 RBI) – it was a mild breakout at best for Denny, who had been the backup in Indy for the first three years of his career, but he produced along the lines of what he had hit for them, and the Critters have to be grateful for even that. Has power, but also considerable contact issues, with 113 K in 444 AB in ‘17.
C Danny Margolis, 27, B:R, T:R (.244, 2 HR, 21 RBI | .239, 12 HR, 63 RBI) – this poor man’s backup catcher continues to stick around mainly because better options were not financially feasible for the Raccoons. Good defensively, but struggling to hit any meaningful amount. Despite that, he enters his fifth major league season, and when has a catcher ever lasted the Critters five seasons?

2B/3B/SS/1B Shane Walter, 28, B:L, T:R (.300, 8 HR, 62 RBI | .286, 20 HR, 217 RBI) – versatile infielder that was claimed off waivers by the Crusaders early in 2016 and soon took over at second base for the hapless Howard Jones, despite dropping 24 points of batting average in Portland. With no real first baseman remaining on the roster, Walter is expected to slot over there to make room for Tim Prince.
2B/SS Tim Prince *, 27, B:R, T:R (.275, 3 HR, 36 RBI | .266, 11 HR, 114 RBI) – coming over in a trade with the Miners that saw Chris Munroe depart to Pennsylvania, Prince is a pretty daft defensive second basemen (which should help our stuff-challenged starters a ton), and while he hits for some average, he doesn’t possess any significant power. Has yet to hit for a .700 OPS in two major league seasons.
SS/2B/3B Ronnie McKnight, 27, B:L, T:R (.254, 17 HR, 78 RBI | .269, 52 HR, 243 RBI) – a unicorn, combining a power bat with a top notch glove at the premium defensive position on the field. What is not to like about that?
3B Matt Nunley, 27, B:L, T:R (.319, 9 HR, 78 RBI | .294, 41 HR, 261 RBI) – after a lull in ’16, Matt finished third in the batting race in 2017 behind Cookie and some Adrian Quebell. Paired with excellent defense at the hot corner for which he is continuously not rewarded, he is everything a GM can hope for from a third baseman. Wishing him to hit 25 homers would be a bit overkill.
RF/3B/2B/1B/LF/CF Brian Petracek, 27, B:S, T:R (.256, 4 HR, 29 RBI | .247, 6 HR, 41 RBI) – super utility player that is able to fill in everywhere in the field, although he didn’t hit much at all after a good offensive two months at the start of the year.
2B/3B/SS Joey Mathews *, 34, B:S, T:R (.263, 9 HR, 57 RBI | .249, 49 HR, 342 RBI) – former Indian that is quite versatile on the infield, and while his 2017 production looks interesting, he also batted a grisly .203 the year before that.

LF/RF R.J. DeWeese, 31, B:L, T:L (.229, 25 HR, 100 RBI | .247, 249 HR, 818 RBI) – okay, DeWeese is an asshole and a real cancer to any clubhouse, but at least he hits homers and drives in runs, even though 2017 was his worst season by OPS since he was a sophomore with the Miners. Third year of his monster 7-year deal, and we are still waiting for one of those seasons where he leads the league in homers, which he did twice with the Cyclones.
LF/CF/RF Ricardo Carmona, 26, B:L, T:R (.344, 2 HR, 52 RBI | .329, 17 HR, 272 RBI) – after missing six weeks in the early season, Cookie only managed to qualify for the batting title late in September, but then seized the chance and took it, his .344 mark leading the CL by a bunch. What we would love right now would be a season where he stays healthy, bats .333 and steals 50 bases again. He has never appeared in more than 146 games in a season, and missed 112 games total between the last two years.
RF/LF/CF/1B Hugo Mendoza, 27, B:L, T:L (.335, 36 HR, 141 RBI | .329, 167 HR, 658 RBI) – pitchers cry themselves to sleep three days before even having to throw baseballs in his direction, he is that good; batting for average, batting for power, and amassing a whopping 8.8 WAR (which is a worthless stat) in 2017 between the Raccoons and Stars, from whence he came in a blockbuster deal in late June when the Raccoons went all in. Should Mendoza fall into another 4-week hole like he did last July, the Raccoons could be in another spot of bother.
LF/RF Eddie Jackson *, 33, B:R, T:R (.254, 12 HR, 61 RBI | .267, 58 HR, 388 RBI) – the Raccoons were out-bid for Jackson’s services prior to the 2017 season and it ended with him batting .429 for the Bayhawks in the CLCS to rip our collective heart out. There are totally no ill feelings towards him.
LF/RF Brandon Johnson, 28, B:L, T:L (.338, 1 HR, 11 RBI | .296, 1 HR, 17 RBI) – that he batted .338 and still didn’t get more than 139 AB despite being on the roster all season long in 2017 probably speaks a bit over the actual grim details of his scouting reports. Can also fill in for the centerfielder.

On disabled list: Nobody.

Otherwise unavailable: Nobody.

Other roster movement:
MR Barry MacDonald *, 34, B:S, T:R (3-4, 6.28 ERA, 1 SV | 24-23, 4.80 ERA, 1 SV) – another reclamation project the Coons signed for next to nothing in late March and hope to squeeze through waivers to provide depth at the AAA level. Yes, we have even run out of relief prospects.
2B/3B/SS Ricky Moya, 27, B:R, T:R (.167, 0 HR, 2 RBI | .167, 0 HR, 2 RBI) – waived and DFA’ed; defensive infielder with little batting prowess that was on the 40-man roster for much longer than any meaningful prospect ever would without breaking the major leagues.

Note: Tom McNeela is NOT DFA’ed to start the season, which would have been the sixth year in a row where he is designated on Opening Day. He was already DFA’ed during the winter.

Opening day lineup:
Vs. RHP: CF Carmona – 3B Nunley – RF H. Mendoza – LF DeWeese – SS McKnight – C Denny – 1B Walter – 2B Prince – P Toner
(Vs. LHP: CF Carmona – LF Jackson – RF H. Mendoza – C Denny – 3B Nunley – 2B Prince – SS McKnight – 1B Walter – P Toner)

We actually have options for left-handed opposition now, with only two left-handed infielders on the roster, and also Jackson walking on as spare outfielder that is right-handed. We have two switch-hitting bench players in Mathews and Petracek, so flexibility has returned, and both could be inserted to rest left-handed regulars against southpaws.

OFF SEASON CHANGES:

The worst WAR loss the Raccoons took was the departure of free agent William Waggoner (+1.7), who was not an everyday starter past the Mendoza trade anyway, but still was worth twice as much as Adam Young in 2017. While the relievers received in the Young trade brought on a total of zip WAR, the freed up budget space helped patch the manifold other holes. Remember that the Raccoons started the offseason with scarcely half a bullpen and only three infielders. There is no big addition to the team this year because resources were simply not available, due to a flurry of huge contracts on the roster already, but perhaps the Tim Prince trade will at some point turn out to be a stroke of genius (I sure hope so). Overall the Raccoons gained 1.9 WAR and ranked seventh, tied with Tijuana, in the BNN table.

Top 5: Pacifics (+7.9), Crusaders (+7.6), Rebels (+6.7), Canadiens (+5.0), Scorpions (+5.0)
Bottom 5: Blue Sox (-4.4), Gold Sox (-5.4), Aces (-6.6), Loggers (-8.6), Miners (-9.0)

PREDICTION TIME:

I picked the Raccoons to finish 16 games out behind the Crusaders last year, when in reality the Crusaders ended up 13 games behind the Raccoons, who made the playoffs more or less by surprise thanks to rebounds from players like Matt Nunley, a strong 1-2-3 punch atop the rotation, and the timely addition of “Tiger” Mendoza.

Those three things are still here, as are two question marks at the back of the rotation and a bullpen that looks like having been randomly drawn from a $5 bin at the convenience store. The rotation will get the Raccoons a fair bit, and the lineup should be strong from the start, and the bench is also better than in 2017. In turn, the bullpen has gotten worse.

With the Indians good on pitching, but with a few soft spots in their lineup, and the Crusaders still hampered by lots and lots of bad contracts, the Raccoons have a good chance for their first back-to-back in division titles in over 20 years, but they can probably not get away with a pile of significant injuries, especially to any of the top three of the starting pitchers.

Since neither the Indians nor Crusaders look like a threat to win 100 games, and the Raccoons’ lineup has teeth all over for a change, I actually fancy our chances here.

Prediction: the Raccoons will go 94-68 and make it back to the playoffs, with the Indians and Crusaders both around 90 wins.

PLAYER DEVELOPMENT:

Farm? What farm? The Raccoons drop from 18th to 23rd with their prospects, and there is really not much to like about the few ranked prospects they have. They had six ranked prospects last year, they still have as many, but their three top 100 prospects turned into a single top 100 prospect. The balance was traded away (#24 John Waker, #92 Ricky Cruz), and #162 Alex Duarte exceeded rookie limits without really getting noticed.

67th (+17) – AA SP Danny Arguello, 21 – 2013 international free agent signed by Raccoons
107th (new) – AA SP J.J. Rodd, 22 – 2014 tenth round pick by the Raccoons
124th (new) – A 1B Ruben Santiago, 19 – 2017 first round pick by the Raccoons
132nd (-1) – AA SP Ricky Martinez, 23 – 2011 international free agent signed by Raccoons
148th (new) – AA 1B Michael Wilkerson, 21 – 2015 supplemental round pick by the Raccoons
183rd (-8) – AAA OF Andy Bareford, 23 – 2013 supplemental round pick by the Raccoons

The franchise top 10 were completed by unranked A OF Kyle Muller (4th Rd. in ’17), AA CL Mike Rehbock (2nd Rd. in ’17), A INF Sam Armetta (3rd Rd. in ’14), and AA OF/1B Dwayne Metts (3rd Rd. in ’16).

No, I still can’t draft. Stop asking.

The top 5 overall prospects this year are:

#1 VAN AAA OF Alex Torres (was #22)
#2 DEN SP Tommy Weintraub (was #3)
#3 TOP A CL Matt Duskin (newly drafted in 2017)
#4 SFW A OF Adrian Feliz (was #31)
#5 DEN AAA SP Warren Polito (was #6)

Weintraub has been in the top 3 for three years, and Polito has been in the top 6 for three years.

Last year’s #4 (LAP C Matt Dehne) and #5 (SAL OF/1B/2B) Quinn Jewell dropped to #9 and #6, respectively, while the top two from last year, TIJ SP Andrew Gudeman and NAS INF John Muller, have been promoted to the majors.

Next: first pitch.