[Westheim]

Sometimes they’re going, sometimes they’re staying. The offseason for the Portland Raccoons began with the announcement of one guy sticking around, and another one throwing in the towel. The latter was scouting director Nick Ridler, who was giving up on the radar gun and crudely constructed four-liners for scouting reports to focus completely on another project that had been on his mind for decades, a three-volume epic about Ezra Meeker’s 1906 return to the Oregon Trail, in the anapestic metre.

We certainly wished him all the best with that endeavor.

While that left us without a head scout for now (and also no hitting coach, interim coach Mark Smith leaving as well), at least we weren’t left without a closer, as Brett Lillis picked up his option for 2024. In the press conference in which he announced his decision he also expressed his confidence that he would be part of a contending team in his age 35 season.

Well, *someone*’s gotta be confident …

I was not that confident, given that the Mexican Prick continued his hacky-hacky, slashy-slashy tactics on the budget, which dropped slightly from $27M in ’23 to $26.2M in ’24. In terms of ranking, the Raccoons fell from t-14th last year to 17th among all teams, and even in absolute numbers were closing in on the bottom of the table fast, sitting more than three times further away from the top financial powerhouses as they were from the bottom.

The Crusaders, who dumped their manager Juan Gil after losing out in the CL North tie-breaker to the eventual champions, the Boston Titans, would have the biggest budget in 2024, tied with the once-again-embarrassed Scorpions. Both teams could throw around a crisp $40M. The twice-defending champions from Boston ranked third with $35M, the twice-swept pennant winners from Washington were fourth with $34.5M, and the Gold Sox and Rebels tied with $33.5M in fifth place.

At the bottom of the pack ranked the Elks and Thunder, tying for 19th actually with $25M apiece, followed by the Indians ($24.2M), Warriors ($22.8M), Stars ($22.6M), and Wolves ($22.2M). The only CL North team missing still are the Loggers, who would have the eighth-biggest budget at $30.5M.

The average budget for 2024 was $29.1M, the median budget was $28.8M.

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After that general overview and a lengthy hand-written note about my performance in the last 12 months in very angry scrawls by the Mexican Prick that I must omit at this point because children are still watching, let’s dive a bit further into the Raccoons’ financial situation in particular, because there are some things that need talking about.

With Lillis picking up his option, the Coons had all of six players with a proper contract to start the 2023-24 offseason, ranked here in terms of the total commitment to them, rounded to full $100k:

$7.5M – Cookie Carmona, signed through 2027 (good move!)
$7.1M – Shane Walter, signed through 2026
$1.9M – Will Newman, includes $1.72M for 2024 and the $160k team buyout for 2025 option
$1.8M – Brett Lillis, contract year
$1.4M – Matt Nunley, signed through 2025
$1.0M+X – Jesus Chavez, it’s complicated*

Chavez originally signed a 4-yr, $3.6M deal when he came out of Cuba prior to the 2021 season. The upcoming season will be the final one where he receives a guaranteed $1M salary. His 2025 salary would be subject to standard league rules for players under team control, but it is so far uncertain (and might be for the entire year) whether he will be arbitration-eligible for 2025 or whether he will not qualify as a super-2 player. His major league experience so far is 1 year and 109 days, placing him reasonably close to the cutoff to prevent a clear guess. You could expect him to make close to $1M in arbitration, but he would make only around $180k if he does not become a super-2 arbitration case.

The list above excludes our arbitration cases this year, some of which we might sign to a deal earlier to prevent arbitration. We have five such players, four pitchers (“Tragic” Travis, Adam Cowen, Vince D, and Cory Dew) and outfielder Frank Santos. None of them are tapped for more than $300k in arbitration by the pundits who claim to know everything.

There are also four free agents that need talking about, including this year’s waiver claim addition Raul Claros, veteran catcher Tony Delgado, starting centerfielder Josh Stevenson, and smoldering wreck Jonny Toner. [Find the full arbitration table before any actions were taken at the bottom of the post]

Let’s start with the elephant in the room right away, which is old #39, four-time Pitcher of the Year Jonny Toner. A once-in-a-generation talent, 32 years old, and increasingly ripped apart by opposing pitching and his own health. His career ERA is 2.61 against a 157-69 record and 2,234 strikeouts, but a once-assured Hall of Fame career has become derailed by three nightmare seasons … well, by his standards. He got tagged for a 3.74 ERA ever since turning 30, and that also includes pitching only 171.2 innings between 2022 and 2023, including a 4-6 record, 4.41 ERA, and 5.6 BB/9 in his disastrous 12 outings in ’23. He made $3M in 2023, and he’s out with elbow ligament reconstruction surgery well into the new season. Given our limited financial prowess (we have roundabout $3M to play with at this point, but have to fill up on coaching, too), we can not reasonably make him an offer at this point.

Not that I don’t want to try him out again. But another go has to start in the new year, after nobody has picked him up and he will drop his asking price. Right now he thinks he’s worth $2.6M in 2024.

Now that the worst is out of the way, let’s talk about what we have, and what we don’t have (and after a general discussion of the general state of the roster we’ll get into some specifics later);

It looks like Jesus Chavez, Rico Gutierrez, and “Tragic” Travis Garrett will play rock-paper-scissors for the Opening Day tap. I would have been after a strong starting pitcher this offseason, but I guess our financial situation forbids an encouraging discussion of this. These three are varying degrees of capable, and all are often serviceable, sometimes excruciating. A team that isn’t going to compete (sorry, Brett) can get along well with all three of them in the rotation. The real problems start behind them, where Matt Huf was been rapturously mind-numbing with 111 walks in 185.2 innings between AAA and the majors. Juan Mendez was merely a stop-gap for the double-header against the Loggers in September, and stuck around when Chris McKendrick went down to injury. McKendrick will miss all or at least the very most of the 2024 season with the same surgery that Toner had, so for now it’s probably best to disregard this poor soul entirely. AAA holds no salvation other than Jonathan Shook, who walked three for every strikeout and posted a 7.99 ERA in his brief time up.

We probably don’t have to worry about the bullpen; there’s enough talent there to make it through a season unharmed, especially with Lillis sticking around. We have numerous options for right- and left-handed pitching, and while his ERA was not that good (4.40), David Kipple’s emergence has been especially encouraging in ’23. He easily leapt past Billy Brotman to #1 on our lefty reliever depth chart (which does not contain Lillis, who is the anointed closer anyway). Brotman’s ERA was better, but his other numbers weren’t – Kipple beat him outright in about every measure. For righties, between Vince D, rule 5 pick Surginer, and the sometimes-sorry Joe Moore, you have a guy for most every situation. And we can easily find a long man between Cowen, West, Barzaga, and what about Cory Dew? He caught himself a bit at the very end of the AAA season, and certainly is making a case for a return to the majors, where he posted a 6.61 ERA in 19 games after returning from injury mid-season.

Behind the dish, Elias Tovias banged 19 homers in his rookie year, which counts for something. The question is whether we need Tony Delgado around. Probably we need a veteran backup still; while we have an interesting option in AAA in 23-year-old Ricky Ortiz (no accent on the I!), his defense is not very good (though Tovias certainly didn’t show much of the advertised catching ability). He did hit .268 with seven homers in 78 AAA games after promotion from Ham Lake, though, so he is definitely on the radar now. Ortiz was the return in the 2022 Joel Davis trade with the Condors.

The infield is where the problems *really* start. Well, we have Matt Nunley at third base – that one is sure. After that it gets tight and porous at the same time. We have two strong defensive shortstops in Tim Stalker and Daniel Bullock, one of which is even hitting okay-ish. Second base is crowded between veteran Shane Walter and still-young Jarod Spencer. Walter played at first base all year, but maybe we would want to try a proper first baseman at some point? Truth be told, I haven’t been not disappointed ever since recycling Al Martin for Adrian Quebell, but come on, every 20 years a team should be able to find a competent first baseman…

There is also the particularity of Raul Claros, who fell into our lap in July. Claros, 30, batted only .271 for the Coons after hitting .340 in the Cyclones’ uniform, but he is something the team does not otherwise have: somebody willing to be patient and draw a ****ing walk. His career OBP is .349, which while not amazing would certainly liven up the top of the order especially with Cookie’s light appearing to have gone out grossly and prematurely. Jarod Spencer, slapper of singles, batted .301 the first time he qualified for the batting title, but he hit only 22 extra-base hits, and drew even fewer (17!) walks in 543 plate appearances. Well, yeah, he’s more than doubled his walks from last year, when he walked eight times in 496 plate appearances.

Add to that Spencer’s utter lack of power (zero homers in 1,234 at-bats), and here you have a .301 batter that was a net loss to his team even with 27 stolen bases, putting up a slash of .301/.325/.350. Even with that .301 batting average, he barely managed to get over the team average in OBP, a disastrous .312…

What about Claros, who played on four teams in the last two seasons? His numbers fluctuated wildly from a high .390 OBP with the Bayhawks in early 2022 to the natural low of .318 with the Coons in the second half of 2023. He finished the season in a slump, which is not designed to be an excuse, though it sounds like one. If you sign Claros to an extension (and I don’t even know whether we can) you have to get rid of Spencer, because there’s just no room for three second basemen on the roster, or you resign yourself to putting Spencer on the bench for those situations where there’s the go-ahead run on third base, two outs, and the pitcher’s spot up in the bottom of the sixth. He will put that ball in play.

Shane Walter can well spend another season at first base, given that Manuel Cardona was a gross disappointment. Batting .239/.282/.294 with no home runs in 109 at-bats as a first baseman automatically disqualifies you from any discussion.

There’s more conundrum in the outfield.

First off, you have Cookie Carmona and his huge extension which he cleverly signed him to before the season even began. His .247/.301/.279 slash in 104 games this year was by far the worst of his career, and it came at age 31. Of course we’ve seen MUCH better of him for a long time, and there’s no reason for him not to get back to his earlier OBP prowess (.386 OBP *one* year ago!), but “we’ve seen better of him before” is a dangerous argument and gave the Coons five more terrible years of David Vinson just a wee few years after his 1990 breakout. Since Cookie is not tradeable right now with the $7.5M commitment and the shambles performance and the health record, it’s best to pencil him in to bat first on Opening Day and refuse to think about it until then.

Omar Alfaro broke out late in ’23 and eventually hit 14 homers for a middling .724 OPS, which is far from great, but he was a lot better in the second half than in the first. Like, it wasn’t even close. He slugged .238 in June. He slugged .413 in September. He slugged .800 in July, but in a small sample size before getting hurt. The truth should lie somewhere between the July and September numbers. His power is for real. We might want to get ready for 130 strikeouts, but I fully expect him to potentially whack up to 30 dingers eventually.

I have to expect that. It’s all the hope to cling on to. It’s the Age of Omar after all.

There’s also Will Newman’s dead contract, whatever we want to make of Zach Graves’ erratic bat, and then the real issue, centerfield. Josh Stevenson was okay in maintaining the grass out there for three years, but never reached a league-average OPS. He’s a free agent, and I feel no urge to hold on. Frank Santos is a pile of nothing, who was sent packing even by the Wolves (though I should not speak ill of a team operating on next-to-no budget and beating the Coons by nine games while facing the Scorpions 18 times). Even his $290k estimate is too much for him. Which leaves us with Greg Borg, who got every chance we could stuff him with and batted .143/.176/.171. (Technically, there’s also still Dwayne Metts, who always hits in AAA, and never in the Bigs, but who’s not on the 40-man roster)

You know, the cynic in me advises to pack Cookie in center, since he obviously can’t withstand the vigors of playing any position anymore, and platoon Graves and Newman in left. Once Cookie invariably shatters in week 2, call up Borg to bat eighth, and spend a modest sum on a Eddie Jackson-like player to be the fifth outfielder in the meantime.

We also have somebody studying up to a business degree sitting next to me, but I can’t be certain whether Cristiano Carmona actually advises me to play Cookie because whenever he plays we sell 15% more uniforms at the park, or because he’s his ****ing brother. He also made a 78-slide Power Point presentation about starting Daniel Bullock at third base and batting cleanup, which has almost convinced me, I must admit.

Hey, we batted Matt Nunley cleanup for a .682 OPS all year, so how bad can Bullock reasonably be compared to that?