View Single Post
Old 02-18-2023, 03:45 PM   #55
ArquimedezPozo
Minors (Triple A)
 
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 227
2038: July Update

As a result of the lost save, the two games above were wiped out. Jason Blanche had been having an incredible month, but in the new run through it was more mundane and may cost him the all-time NABF K record; Mike MacArtney, meanwhile, did break the 3,000 hit plateau, and did so much much earlier, in a two hit game against the Padres on July 5. Some standings changes did occur, but they weren’t ones that I had referenced above, so no corrections are needed there.

Division 1 East

The biggest story in D1 East is the rise of the strikeout. K’s are up all over the Division, and it’s unclear why, but the effect has been especially pronounced in the East. Division 1 has always been a strangely low-strikeout division, so perhaps this is simply a long-overdue correction, but it’s certainly dramatic.

Coming into 2038, the single game strikeout record in D1 was 15, set by John Belhumeur in 2030; as of the end of July, there have been four additional 15 K games, three 16 K games, a 17 K game, and a new NABF record 18 K performance. It stands to reason, then, that the all-time single season D1 mark of 209, set by Jason Blanche in 2031, has also been eclipsed - more than once.

Entering the month, it was clear that the record would go, as Jason Blanche himself entered the July on a tear, just 28 away from #210. But teammate Matt O’Brien was on his own run, and was not far behind at 167. Blanche broke a seven game streak of double digit strikeout games with two straight 9 K outings on July 3 and July 9, then had Brooklyn fans holding their breath as he left a game against Toronto in the first with what turned out to be a mild blister. All of that gave O’Brien an opening, and he seized it. On July 10, O’Brien set down a startling 18 Industriales in front of a packed Ebbets crowd, setting the new single game record. He pulled ahead of Blanche in his next start. Then, finally, on July 23, Matt O’Brien eclipsed Blanche’s 2031 season with his 210th strikeout; he enters August as the all-time single season D1 record holder with 224, though Blanche is just behind him. So too, suddenly, is Seattle’s Jeff Baltimore with 212. All three are potentially in position to threaten Jarrod Scott’s all-time NABF single season mark of 333. If any succeed, it would mean that the three great strikeout marks in NABF history - the single-game record, Scott’s single season record, and Malcolm Bush’s all-time career record - could fall in the same season.

But as exciting as things are in Brooklyn right now, New York’s lead isn’t going anywhere, as the Giants remain 10 games up on the division, 30 games over .500. The club went 16-10 over July, with the biggest highlight coming from free agent acquisition Jon Sayre, whose output finally began to match his peripherals. Sayre got off to a rough start but improved in June, and continued at an elite level in July: a 62 FIP- and 2.63 SIERA speak to that effectiveness. His turnaround, along with strong contributions by SP Josh Dent and a rapidly improving bullpen, have helped New York cover for a slight offensive dip: they’re now averaging 5.7 runs a game, no longer on pace for a record-shattering 900.

Brooklyn’s 16-10 run in July was fueled in part by the heroics of O’Brien and Blanche, but also by the joint batting heroics of Carson Prince (.295/.358/.600) and D1 HR leader Dane Best (.286/.369/.538). Though they’ve kept pace with New York, the month was good enough to sneak them into second place. That’s in part due to Tampa’s reversal of fortune, dropping 16 of 26 over the month despite strong offensive production. Tampa’s pitching ran into a brick wall this month, as the back end of the rotation was pulled apart time and time again; the Tarpons are now 54-46, just a game behind Brooklyn but trending in the wrong direction. Philadelphia and Chicago lag behind at 49-51, while Toronto sits 25 games back despite a resurgent season from CF Benni Phillips. Look for Philadelphia to drop, as they did some selling at the deadline, headlined by a trade that sent SP Ryan Ratliff to the Whales for a solid 1B prospect in Roger Agosto.

Division 1 West

This is shaping up to be the best race of them all, as the lead has shifted again and again between the Steelheads, Sun Kings, and Angels.

This was Seattle’s month, as the young club won 18 of 26 to seize first place away from El Paso. Hector Razo continues to build a case for the best pitcher outside Kings County NY, but the leading hurler on the squad in July was Jeff Baltimore, whose 6-0, 1.61 ERA month, in which he struck out 60 in just 43 innings, was enough to earn him Pitcher of the Month and propel him into the great strikeout race - and possibly the Pitcher of the Year discussion himself. Young catcher Roger Alvarado, who many picked as a likely D1 Rookie of the Year coming in, hit another level in July smacking ten homers with a staggering 1.246 OPS to win Rookie of the Month for the first time, and international signing Ki-chun Moon also began delivering on his promise with a .308/.336/.635 line and nine homers. Mike Hood, too, keeps quietly adding to a dark-horse MVP campaign. Seattle appears to be for real.

El Paso’s respectable 15-11 showing in July dropped them to second place, but in this wild Conference that hasn’t meant much yet. Brian Castrovinci continues to top MVP predictions in a massive breakout season, winning his second Batter of the Month with a .316/.427/.633, 8 homer stretch that has him competing for the Triple Crown. SP John Belhumeur has had a little of Brooklyn’s strikeout magic dust onto him as well, as his K rate has skyrocketed; he now has 159 on the season, already his career high.

The third contender in the conference, Los Angeles, held their own in July despite being hobbled by injury. The club has lost Bobby Hardy and Nick Book from their rotation, along with closer Nick Memic, but they remain four games out and a streak away from first. Monterrey, too, keeps hanging around at 7 back, with RF Greg Allen carrying a damaged offense. Monterrey has had injuries in its rotation as well, which has led to a backslide, and while the bullpen has been outstanding they haven’t had much to protect. Chase Maze has continued his tough year as well, which has taken a lot of wind from the sails.

Denver had been looking at a decent month until they lost nine straight coming out of the All-Star break; Donovan Bryant is just three behind the pace in the HR race, but Denver doesn’t have much more to cheer. That’s better than Tijuana can say, though: at 33-69, they’re the worst team in D1 and are hurtling toward their first-ever last place finish.

D1 Batter of the Month: Brian Castrovinci, 1B, El Paso - .316/.427/.633, 8 HR, 24 RBI
D1 Pitcher of the Month: Jeff Baltimore, SP, Seattle - 6-0, 1.61 ERA, 60 K
D1 Rookie of the Month: Roger Alvarado, C, Seattle - .343/.395/.851, 10 HR, 21 RBI


Division 2 East

Could we be witnessing the rise of a new Terrapins dynasty? Omar Juarez says yes, as he continues his amazing season. The superstar 2B had yet another outstanding month (though his worst of the season), hitting .350/.416/.660 with 7 homers to bring his season line to .357/.433/.660 with 26 homers, a .461 wOBA, and a 204 wRC+. Juarez’s 100.4 RC are far and away the most of any batter in D2, and he sure seems like a unanimous MVP pick right now. The deep Baltimore lineup has scored the most runs in D2, though the club did take a hit mid-month when young star CF Wayne Richard went down with a forearm injury that will keep him out for a few more weeks. And starter Randy Putnam may be putting up his best career year for Baltimore, in the running for what would be his second Pitcher of the Year.

Boston has also made a major move this month, gaining on everyone with a 17-9 run that included back-to-back series wins over Baltimore and Detroit. Russ Mesaros has become a fairly one-dimensional player, but that dimension is homers; the Bees are a little light on table-setters and on-base guys, though, and could improve in that department. And while Dave Wyatt and Jorge Ortiz have been holding the rotation up, Boston could certainly use another starter.

Detroit took the biggest fall of the Conference contenders, winning just ten games in July as the offense collapsed. Other than Ali Brown, who had a bounce-back month, few Stars did much with the bat; five of the starting nine had an OPS+ under 75 on the month, contributing to the woeful run scoring. Things are better in the rotation due largely to Zack Root, who continues to dominate in his first D2 season, but the bullpen has given up too many late wins for Detroit to handle.

That leaves Ottawa, New Orleans, and Montreal to fight for table scraps in the East. Robert Zermeno continues to produce, but he’s just about the only thing going right for the 43-59 Zephyrs now that the glow from Mike MacArtney’s 3,000th hit has faded. In Montreal, young
Jordan Burford has been sensational in the rotation while Bubba Fread has had a good if not great season, but instability throughout the rotation and bullpen have given the Expos middling results, made worse by the powerless offense.

Division 2 West

It’s looking increasingly like we can put a pin in this one, as Vancouver extended its lead in the Conference further: the Mounties have the best record in the NABF at 68-34, having won an even ⅔ of their games. They sit 13 games over the Buffaloes, with the three-headed monster of Tony Hines, John Witherspoon, and Leo Rodriguez scoring runs in front of a lock-down pitching staff that has admittedly benefited from some luck, but has been deeply effective nevertheless. Rich Buxkemper in particular has been a true surprise - after years as a relief arm or back-end rotation filler, the 35 year old veteran is now 10-2 with a 2.18 ERA and 86 FIP-, in the conversation for year end hardware.

After Vancouver is Houston, and after them not much. The Buffaloes are 55-47 behind the strong offensive production of Bill Tucker, and recent rotation adjustments (most notably removing Tyler Wilson and Dennis Herring from the rotation in favor of younger options such as Nate Blomdahl) show promise. Realistically, Houston can’t catch Vancouver without a major drop north of the border, but they’re holding their own.

Outside of the top two, the biggest story of July was a resurgent month from Kansas City ace Rhett Frew, whose abysmal June had fans worried. Frew righted the ship and then some in July, winning Pitcher of the Month honors and striking out an incredible 65 hitters in 45 innings - over 36% of batters faced. Frew has been the only positive for a struggling Kansas City club, which sits 25 games back in fifth place; above them are the Solons and Padres, and below lie only the sad Ft. Worth Cats, memories of their 2037 championship long faded.

D2 Batter of the Month: Roberto Zermeno, 1B, New Orleans - .340/.394/.760, 13 HR, 30 RBI
D2 Pitcher of the Month: Rhett Frew, SP, Kansas City - 3-1, 1.18 ERA, 65 K
D2 Rookie of the Month: Jordan Burford, SP, Montreal - 3-1, 0.74 ERA, 33 K


Division 3 East

For much of the season, Miami held the conference’s best run differential but remained on the outside looking in as Nashville kept afloat at the top. Things have righted themselves, however, as Nashville’s surge in July, going 18-8 while outscoring opponents 149-102, kept them atop the W/L leaderboard and brought them into the top spot in run differential as well at +111. They are still playing four games above their expected record, however, with a strong offense backed by a pitching staff that’s something of a mirage. No one exemplifies that better than Andres Orozco, whose 14-1 record and 1.78 ERA are tops in the Division despite a more pedestrian 3.73 FIP. Isaiah Phelps has been a guarantee at the back end of the pen, however: Phelps went the entirety of July without allowing a run and is riding a 25 inning, 22 game scoreless streak that stretches back into mid-June.

The pitcher who has really set the pace in D3 is Paul Herrin, whose Amigos are at +81 in terms of run differential and only two games behind Nashville in expected W/L. The problem for Miami is that they are ten games behind Nashville in actual W/L, and in third place, despite Herrin’s continued brilliance. In between Nashville and Miami are the Atlanta Crackers and Sam Stanton, who is enjoying a good if not great year. Atlanta has a huge gap between their starters and bullpen, too - a deficiency they at least attempted to address by picking up RP Sergio Franco from Philly at the deadline.

Memphis has an even 50-50 record in large part due to Eric Olson and Ian Weaver; the Blues’ two major stars have kept an otherwise unremarkable team from sinking further. Olson has been among the Division’s most complete offensive players, hitting .312/.360/.583 with 28 homers, while Weaver - often overlooked in a division with other excellent starters - has become a dependable and high-quality workhorse, with 170 innings under his belt and an 87 FIP-. Cleveland and Columbus take up the rear, with Columbus in danger of risking relegation after a fifth place finish last year and a last place, .392 winning percentage to this point in 2038.

Division 3 West

D3W continues to confound, as the team with the clear advantage - the Salt Lake Gulls, with the Conference’s only positive run differential and a startlingly good offense - is still mired in second place. The Gulls suffered a major blow in the last week, as Nate Madden, who was on his way to an incredible career year at age 36, partially tore his labrum and will be out until at least mid-September. Madden had been hitting .349/.416/.627 with 22 homers at the time of the injury. Salt Lake still has Ralph Keough, who now takes over as a prime MVP candidate, but Madden’s loss will make it even harder for Salt Lake to convert its offensive excellence into success in the standings.

The current D3 West leader is St. Paul, eight games above .500 despite a 50-52 expected record. St. Paul was 16-10 over the month, led by Batter of the Month Alfredo Martinez and his .354/.394/.711, 11 homer month and by rookie starter Jerry Dudek, who seems to have already established himself as the team ace at age 23. Dudek took Rookie of the Month honors with 49 strikeouts and a 2.35 ERA over five starts and 38 innings in July. The rest of St. Paul’s roster hasn’t been playing at a championship pace, and it’s hard to see the club maintain this level the rest of the way, but they’ve built a four game lead while Salt Lake continues to flounder.

The last nail in Austin’s coffin likely got hammered in when ace Chris Parker went down in late May, but the Pioneers have hung around, and despite a losing record are still just 5 games out. Leadoff hitter Danny Loaiza has been doing his best to keep them in it, at .301/.368/.457 with a D3-best 16 steals, though his SB rate is a poor 64%. And Austin’s rotation remains solid with Masahiro Nakanishi stepping into the #1 slot and winning 12, but the back end has seen some instability. San Francisco, too, has stuck around and is tied with Austin for third place; by run differential, at least, the Seals have been the conference’s second best team, though their offensive attack leaves much to be desired.

Portland, meanwhile, had a brutal start to the month, going 5-12 before the All-Star break. But the rest did them good, and after dropping the first post-ASB game to Cleveland in a 7-0 shutout, the Beavers have ripped off eight straight wins, including a sweep of Salt Lake. The club remains well out of first with no meaningful offense and an overworked bullpen, but they should be able to stay out of the basement. That’s also due to the continued struggles in Calgary, whose 38-62 record is among the worst in the Federation.

D3 Batter of the Month: Alfredo Martinez, 1B, St. Paul - .354/.394/.781, 11 HR, 29 RBI
D3 Pitcher of the Month: Isaiah Phelps, CL, Nashville - 9 SV, 0.00 ERA, 20 K
D3 Rookie of the Month: Jerry Dudek, SP, St. Paul - 4-1, 2.35 ERA, 49 K


Division 4 East

The D4 East continues to be the weakest conference in the NABF this year, but something is stirring in Pittsburgh: the Crawfords have risen to the top of the standings with a 16-10 month that has put them a game up on both Washington and Columbus. Pittsburgh, rather famously, is the only NABF team that has never seen postseason play, and the excitement is palpable as PNC Park is suddenly at capacity nightly. Young 3B Nick Nissen has led the offense to its biggest month, hitting .360 with a .573 slug while Manny Rodriguez continues to excel. But the pitching has led for Pittsburgh, as Ryan Goldy, Karunamaya Nema, and SP/2B Gary Stophel have all pitched brilliantly for the Crawfords. This will be an exciting story to watch as the season’s last two months unfold.

Three clubs hang just behind Pittsburgh: the Senators and Hornets are both a game back, with 50-50 records. Washington has made some moves to try to take advantage in a weak conference, bulking up its rotation by getting Nate Ney from Philly’s firesale and groundballer Tyler Welsh from Sacramento. This has allowed the Senators to shift arms in their division-worst bullpen as well. And in Charlotte, after a down month Ernesto Gonzales roared back to hit an incredible .431 in July, adding 14 doubles and a .473 OBP; his .356 average would be third-best in D4 history if the season ended today, and another month like this could put him in position to threaten Bobby Usry’s NABF-best mark.

Indianapolis, however, continues to suffer through a disappointing season. Aaron Cottrell has been a shadow of his 2037 self, and sits at 6-10 with a 4.26 ERA that is the product of some regression and some bad luck - his .335 BABIP is high, but then he won a Pitcher of the Year and MVP last year with a .310. Jason Stanfill and Nate Mefford - now the all-time K leader with 3,551 and counting - have kept Indy in it, however, despite a typically weak Clowns offense.

Cincinnati’s pitching also remains its strength, with Willie Rodriguez ripping through June with a 52 FIP- while striking out 34% of the batters he faced. Rookie of the Month Jay Basinger has also seen some success. But Cincinnati has struggled to score runs all season, and nothing they did at the deadline will come close to addressing that issue.

And that leaves Havana, mired at 37-65, sixteen games out of first, with no hope on the horizon: OSA ranks Havana’s farm system as the worst in the Division.

Division 4 West

San Antonio, the only team that has never escaped D4, is now the team to beat in the West, and maybe in all of D4 itself - at 59-42, they have a better record than anyone else in the Division, and lead with 493 runs scored courtesy of a lineup that has seen above average production from nearly every position. LF Sukehiro Sakamoto had a stellar month to help keep San Antonio on top, while an improved rotation and the addition of RP Manny Saenz have given the club badly needed run prevention.

Milwaukee continues to hang around second place with the Division’s best pitching staff, top to bottom, though, and while they lag on offense D4 is not a heavy offense league - Milwaukee is absolutely a threat here, especially if Jamie Ibarra has turned a corner as he appeared to in July. Pete Morin is still the rock of the rotation, but this crew can pitch, and in a tight race that might get them over.

Tied at 55-45, the Firebirds and Browns are on the outside looking in, but are still very much alive. You could argue that Phoenix remains a favorite, as the club has a top two offense and the best staff FIP in the division, though they’ve underperformed. At just four games back, it wouldn’t take much to put them back on top, though, especially if young ace Kerry Chumley keeps pitching the way he did in July - 5-1, 2.23 ERA, and a 79 FIP-. Bob Paul has been unreal as well, putting up one of his three best relief seasons despite turning 40 before the season began. The offense keeps cranking, too, behind Pitcher of the Month Fred Levang, who hit .389/.511/.750 over 21 July games at DH. The Browns, by contrast, have been solid but unremarkable; it’s hard to imagine that they’ll end the season even with or ahead of Phoenix. The bullpen has been the biggest bright spot, as Xavier Mayes could be looking at a Reliever of the Year award with 28 saves, a K rate of over 33%, and an insane GB ratio of 65% to go along with his 37 FIP-.

That leaves Vegas and Albuquerque to, ahem, Duke it out over last place. The clubs enter August tied with 46-54 records.

D4 Batter of the Month: Fred Levang, 2B, Phoenix - .389/.511/.750, 5 HR, 21 R
D4 Pitcher of the Month: Kerry Chumley, SP, Phoenix - 5-1. 2.23 ERA, 39 K
D4 Rookie of the Month: Jay Basinger, SP, Cincinnati - 3-1, 1.41 ERA, 38 K
Attached Images
Image Image Image Image 
ArquimedezPozo is offline   Reply With Quote