Replay with Free Agency

[ojoe]

Hello, all --

So I just now got an email from OOTP regarding the appearance of an exec on MLB Network (which is very cool), and partnerships with Nate Silver and the Trenton Thunder, etc. Says something about replaying Ryan Howard's career without the shift, and how we can do our own "What if?" scenarios, including, "What if free agency always existed?"

...Which is exactly the simulation I was running in the background when I got the email.

So, I started with 1871. I usually edit the league structure to have the real historical teams when I do a historical replay, but in this case, I just used the teams provided, turned on league expansion, turned on free agency, turned on the amateur draft, turned off the real retirement years, and let it run.

I stopped a few times along the way - I allowed for an All-Star Game from 1871, but turned off the Hall of Fame until 1939. Actually 1938...I activated the Hall of Fame on Jan. 1 of that year, thinking I wouldn't get an election until the next year. But of course, I should have waited until after the voting period had ended for '38. I stopped sometime in the '70s because I realized that injuries had been set to "low" the whole time, and so I had a number of players going well into their 40s.

Anyway, the game is in the 1992 season right now. I plan on taking it into the future. Not sure how far yet, but probably far enough so that any of today's players would have retired.

So, I'll post some reports, in case anybody wants to see them, once it's done. ...I can now tell you that the 1992 Cincinnati Reds won 114 games, but lost to the Cubs in the NLCS, and then the Cubs went on to beat the Indians.

...And then I stopped writing this to watch 1993 play out, and the Reds won 116...only to lose to the Cubs again, who lost the World Series in 7 to the White Sox.

I am finding that - a lot more 100-win, and 100-loss teams than in real life. And it's not that uncommon to see 105 or 110 in the W or L column.

Beyond that, I'll report on the results when I get them. And if you're curious how any particular team or player did, ask, and I'll look it up and post it.

Cubs and Indians fans will be much happier with this fictional 20th Century than they were in real life. Giants fans will be happy about the team's ability to get to the World Series, but frustrated by their inability to win it.

[ojoe]

I had a big long thing, but screwed up posting images...It'll take me a second to remember how to do this...

[ojoe]

Really not trying to boost my post count...just can't figure out how to delete these...

[ojoe]

So, again, I just had this running in the background and so wasn't terribly invested in it - if I were actually spending time with this, I'd have had players retire on time and made sure the injury rating was more realistic. Probably would have checked seasonal stats and settings, too...

But I didn't do any of those things. I just turned on free agency and the draft. And I got a lot of extreme results.

To illustrate them, I first give you Tommie Agee:



The slash line is actually really good. In real life, he was .255/.320/.412 - in the game, he was .255/.326/.413. Outstanding accuracy. And there were a number of personal highs that closely mirrored his real career - in the game, his highs for hits, doubles, homers, walks, strikeouts, and steals were 178, 31, 28, 58, 136, and 36. In real life, those bests were 178, 30, 26, 59, 156, and 44.

But he does reflect the extremes I'm talking about in two ways.

First, the replay version of Agee played 13 seasons longer than the real guy. And the second way is on the team he's in.

Look at that 1971 season - most of his numbers dipped to some degree over 1970, but he still posted an outstanding season with a 5.9 WAR.

So what's extreme?

This is the team he played for:



24-138. Scored 431 runs, allowed 930. The four guys who started 25 or more games had a combined record of 12-70 - and two other guys who combined for 33 starts were 7-27.

Incidentally, the team featured two 22-year-old members of the Big Red Machine - George Foster and Dave Concepcion. Foster was basically a replacement level player at 0.2 WAR, and Concepcion was a disaster. A slash line of .199/.242/.240 over 713 PA, and a WAR of -1.7.

And while those Royals were the worst of the worst, at least five other teams (two more in the AL and three in the NL) lost 131 or more games. And at least six teams in league history have won 116 or more.

The league record for runs is 1231 by the '95 Yankees, and for homers it's 310 by the 2031 Rockies....And OK, that's still 14 years away, so maybe that will happen. But among seasons that have been played in real life, the Expos hit 304 homers in 200, while the 2017 Red Sox and 2000 Yankees each hit 296.

So I don't know if anybody else besides me finds any of this interesting, but I'll post a few more tonight before going to bed.

[ojoe]

Since I mentioned him earlier as part of a really bad team, I thought I'd post his career so you'll see he turned out fine...



Close to 20 percent more pop than what he exhibited in real life, but the hit totals and slash line are almost identical.

[ojoe]

There were actually a few surprising names inducted into the Hall of Fame. I only made a few adjustments to the election process. Probably the biggest one was that I initially set the service years requirement at 5 years in hopes of getting some of the early year players who played much shorter schedules and so who might legit take four seasons to add up to the number of service days that constitute a "year."

...And then I never switched it. I also had the threshold for being dropped off the ballot set at 0% for a while, then to 2%, and finally 5. I allowed for 20 votes per ballot, and kept guys on the ballot for 15 years. And I made guys eligible immediately after retirement, which I generally like to do because it's more likely they'll be inducted wearing a uniform that they actually wore in life.

So my nominee for the most surprising Hall of Fame inductee:



He played until age 45 and finished in the top 10 in home runs for catchers. But the real guy had a SLG of .461, so I dunno. Maybe he got hurt in real life, but avoided major injury in the game?

And if you're looking at 1997, when he played 161 games - only one of those games was as a catcher. The '97 Pirates used him at first base 147 times, and then in the outfield.

[ojoe]

By which I mean, a player beloved by one fan base, who ended up starring for a rival in my replay. I'm thinking along the lines of Yaz being a Yankee (he wasn't - he was mostly a Cub) or Willie Mays being a Dodger.

And Mays could have been my selection. He's in the Hall of Fame as a Cardinal, which bothers me as a Giants fan. And he did play one season for the Dodgers. But he also played a season for the Giants, and had better stats there.

So, with that in mind - if you're a Phillies fan, you'll want to look away...

[ojoe]

This is just...oh my God...



The first few years of his career are cut off, but he played with the White Sox the whole time. ...515 wins, 7656 strikeouts, 18 Cy Youngs (though I just named it "Pitcher of the Year Award") and 9 MVPs. He faced 27360 batters in his career - they batted a combined .194. Unreal.

Those 515 wins, incidentally, put him SIXTH all-time - though the five guys ahead of him all played most of their careers in the 19th Century. Of players who started in the 20th Century, Walter Johnson is next with 467 wins. Of players who debuted after 1950, Roger Clemens has the next most wins with 374.

Also, from 1962-73 and again in 1976-77, he was teammates with Don Drysdale.

[hqbaseball]

Interesting results. Koufax' career is ridiculous. In regards to Agee, WAR is the same regardless of the team he is on. Right? Maybe his defense was just abnormally outstanding. I could be wrong tho...

[BoomsdayDevice]

Schmidt as a Met and Koufax as a White Sox (in that hat) looks creepy haha. Love it.