What's Best for the Future?

Juggernt · 01-25-2018, 12:54 AM

I'm leading my division by 5 games in the middle of August. My star 2B gets injured for the rest of the year. I have an 18 year old top prospect at the same position in AAA. Is it better for me in the long run to promote the prospect or let him stay in the minors and do well? I have an adequate replacement already in the majors (slick fielding, not much bat), but given that I have dominant pitching, that one bat doesn't matter that much. If there's a downside to bringing up the prospect, I'd rather leave him in AAA.

TGH-Adfabre · 01-25-2018, 11:03 AM

One downside is the service time clock. Other than that you can gove him a week or two and see how he does. I do not think this hurts a prospect. If he is clearly out of his league and you trot him out there I think there is a chance it can hinder development.

NoOne · 01-25-2018, 09:47 PM

mlb is a better development environment for any player *nearing* fully developed. they don't even need playing time to benefit from it (unlike minors).

where that line is drawn is the opinion part without data to back it up.

just a loose guess: if AAA is ~80% developed or outlined by sabermetric pcms?? then anythign >80% developed likely draws back down if left too long in AAA - excluding rehabs?. some "glass ceiling" due to AAA vs MLB that affects development -- or the % chance of positive development if not a hard ceiling based on proportion of the player's development. however it occurs, you probably don't want fully developed player stagnating in AAA for long.

whether you use him depends more on service time, like tgh said.

if they are going to be good players, i like to get their careers started ASAP, but if their current ability is barely mlb-baseline, i'd prefer to go with someone more expendable as an injury replacement.

if the guy can be inserted 1-5 and be a key contributor, that's a different choice for me even if they get some service time.

the way the math work on it, as long as you weren't intending to short-day the guy his rookie year, it won't matter in most cases if they get a month or 3 in beforehand.

you accumulate a year of service time only after the regular season and only if it adds up to the minimum days -- and never more than 1 year at at time.

it does carries over, but it doesn't always add up to another year... e.g. let's say "180" minimum time. a player has 300days at the end of year 2, but will only have 1 year of service time. (1 year and the extra 120days that don't mean anythign when it comes to financial stuff)

(same exmample #s) if they only get 60 days in year 3 due to injuries, that's an example of the rare instances it can hurt a bit, financially. they'll gain that 1 year back just be completing ~60 days (120+60=180, so 2 years, now) without those extra days they'd still be 1 year of service time.

Brad K · 01-27-2018, 09:44 PM

I have no objective reason for saying this.

Bring up the kid and let him start some of the games. Let the old man defensive whiz start the rest. And put in the old man as a late inning defensive sub.

Regarding one bat not mattering that much, well, your "dominant" pitching has gotten you a five game lead in August, which can disappear quickly. Every part of the team matters.

01-25-2018, 12:54 AM	#1
Juggernt Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 357	What's Best for the Future? I'm leading my division by 5 games in the middle of August. My star 2B gets injured for the rest of the year. I have an 18 year old top prospect at the same position in AAA. Is it better for me in the long run to promote the prospect or let him stay in the minors and do well? I have an adequate replacement already in the majors (slick fielding, not much bat), but given that I have dominant pitching, that one bat doesn't matter that much. If there's a downside to bringing up the prospect, I'd rather leave him in AAA.

01-25-2018, 11:03 AM	#2
TGH-Adfabre Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 2,599	One downside is the service time clock. Other than that you can gove him a week or two and see how he does. I do not think this hurts a prospect. If he is clearly out of his league and you trot him out there I think there is a chance it can hinder development. __________________ You mock me, therefore I am My wife

01-25-2018, 09:47 PM	#3
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	mlb is a better development environment for any player nearing fully developed. they don't even need playing time to benefit from it (unlike minors). where that line is drawn is the opinion part without data to back it up. just a loose guess: if AAA is ~80% developed or outlined by sabermetric pcms?? then anythign >80% developed likely draws back down if left too long in AAA - excluding rehabs?. some "glass ceiling" due to AAA vs MLB that affects development -- or the % chance of positive development if not a hard ceiling based on proportion of the player's development. however it occurs, you probably don't want fully developed player stagnating in AAA for long. whether you use him depends more on service time, like tgh said. if they are going to be good players, i like to get their careers started ASAP, but if their current ability is barely mlb-baseline, i'd prefer to go with someone more expendable as an injury replacement. if the guy can be inserted 1-5 and be a key contributor, that's a different choice for me even if they get some service time. the way the math work on it, as long as you weren't intending to short-day the guy his rookie year, it won't matter in most cases if they get a month or 3 in beforehand. you accumulate a year of service time only after the regular season and only if it adds up to the minimum days -- and never more than 1 year at at time. it does carries over, but it doesn't always add up to another year... e.g. let's say "180" minimum time. a player has 300days at the end of year 2, but will only have 1 year of service time. (1 year and the extra 120days that don't mean anythign when it comes to financial stuff) (same exmample #s) if they only get 60 days in year 3 due to injuries, that's an example of the rare instances it can hurt a bit, financially. they'll gain that 1 year back just be completing ~60 days (120+60=180, so 2 years, now) without those extra days they'd still be 1 year of service time. Last edited by NoOne; 01-25-2018 at 09:51 PM.

01-27-2018, 09:44 PM	#4
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	I have no objective reason for saying this. Bring up the kid and let him start some of the games. Let the old man defensive whiz start the rest. And put in the old man as a late inning defensive sub. Regarding one bat not mattering that much, well, your "dominant" pitching has gotten you a five game lead in August, which can disappear quickly. Every part of the team matters.