Help me understand the Jose Altuve deal

Elendil · 03-17-2018, 01:06 PM

https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/jose...os/c-268898340

The Astros had him under contract for '18 and '19 already. So why sign an extension now paying out $30m/year through his age 33 year? I can't see that they've gotten much of a break off what the market price would likely be for him at age 29. Factor in inflation and maybe it looks a little better for the team. Still, risky move making this extension so early.

Airdrop01 · 03-17-2018, 01:35 PM

Sometimes you do a thing because it is the right thing to do. It ends up working both ways (sometimes). Gil Meche for example. This seems to me a lot like the Salvador Perez situation a couple years ago.

joefromchicago · 03-17-2018, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Airdrop01

Sometimes you do a thing because it is the right thing to do.

Do people do that? Sometimes. Do multi-million-dollar corporations like the Astros do that? Never.

Signing a player to an extension, even when his current contract still has two years to run, undoubtedly struck Houston management as a good deal. It locks up a franchise player for three more years at what the Astros must believe is a bargain price compared to what they'd have to pay him as a free agent or pay some comparable player after 2019. The amount they're paying for 2018-19 above the existing contract price is just the cost of getting Altuve's signature on the extension. This isn't "doing right by Altuve" so much as it's "doing right by the Astros." As noted baseball commentator Michael Corleone once put it, "this is business, this isn't personal."

Airdrop01 · 03-17-2018, 03:14 PM

They do sometimes. Salvador Perez. Gil Meche. Stan Musial before them.

CMH · 03-17-2018, 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joefromchicago

Do people do that? Sometimes. Do multi-million-dollar corporations like the Astros do that? Never.

Signing a player to an extension, even when his current contract still has two years to run, undoubtedly struck Houston management as a good deal. It locks up a franchise player for three more years at what the Astros must believe is a bargain price compared to what they'd have to pay him as a free agent or pay some comparable player after 2019. The amount they're paying for 2018-19 above the existing contract price is just the cost of getting Altuve's signature on the extension. This isn't "doing right by Altuve" so much as it's "doing right by the Astros." As noted baseball commentator Michael Corleone once put it, "this is business, this isn't personal."

To clarify, the extension begins in 2020 for an additional 5 years.

He is locked up for seven years.

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Matt Arnold · 03-17-2018, 03:41 PM

They probably figured better to give him a 5 year extension now rather than have to give him 7 or 8 years when his deal is up.

Elendil · 03-17-2018, 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

They probably figured better to give him a 5 year extension now rather than have to give him 7 or 8 years when his deal is up.

That makes sense. Management must see him as the franchise cornerstone. Interesting choice, since Correa or Bregman could well be better 3 years from now.

Jeffy25 · 03-18-2018, 09:13 AM

In the end, it's probably mostly fine. It's a bit of a reach and too soon, they probably could have done this same deal next off-season with the same amount of information and another 8 win season. But it also gives him 2 years to get hurt have an issue or regress, and then this extension kicks in.

I believe Howard tore his achillies on the last play before his extension started. If they had waited, no way does he land 5/$125 that off-season.

Does Braun still get 5/$105 on the open market after 2015?
Does Tulo still get 6/$118M after 2014?
Does Miggy still get 8/248 after 2015?

Maybe on some of these, but usually these very early, max free agency pay deals, rarely pay out correctly for the team. It seems more about loyalty.

Altuve age at time of extension - entering age 28 season - covers age 30-34 seasons for $151M
Braun age at time of extension - entering age 27 season - covers age 32-37 seasons if mutual option exercised - $105M up to $116M if option picked
Tulo age at time of extension - entering age 26 season - replaced final three years of control for a new deal covering age 26-35 - 10-157.75M - with another 11M if option picked up - it's really a 6/118M deal over his age 30-35 seasons though

Ryan Howard was two years older, and his deal is treated a lot the same, but for $25M less. He was coming off his 4th consecutive, top 5 MVP finish (actually top 3 in 3 of those 4 years). He also gave them another two top 10 MVP finishes in those last two years of control

Over the time of the extension though, he hit a combined .226/.292/.427 and was worth a -4.5 rWAR

Pedroia and Tulo are the two, very early extensions that probably fit a bit better here than Howard. At least 2 years of team control at time of extension. Right handed hitting middle infielders who had already signed team friendly deals. Coming off repeatedly great seasons.

Tulo, the Rox got more years of control for more money. Pedroia, the Sox got more years of control for less money.

I remember lamenting in how awful that Ryan Howard deal was at the time. Altuve I can somewhat support more. Nothing about Howard's deal made sense. He was given a record amount for a 1B, per AAV. The same type of deal they would have potentially given him at that time. The Phillies paid him as if he was on the open market.

Altuve would have likely cost more than this if he was a free agent right now

I guess the risk for the Astros was that Altuve performs this well again in 2018, and then wouldn't take such a short term extension, and would have pushed for Cano money and years a year away from free agency. What they retain here is the shortness of only a 5 year extension, and are unburdened by him at his age 34.
It also shows guys like Correa that they are committed here and want to retain the face of the franchise and don't mind a high AAV coming up.

For Altuve, it's **** you money for the rest of his life. Obvious win for him. But for the Astros, I can see the value, when I couldn't see it for the Phillies with Howard.

Jeffy25 · 03-18-2018, 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joefromchicago

Do people do that? Sometimes. Do multi-million-dollar corporations like the Astros do that? Never.

Signing a player to an extension, even when his current contract still has two years to run, undoubtedly struck Houston management as a good deal. It locks up a franchise player for three more years at what the Astros must believe is a bargain price compared to what they'd have to pay him as a free agent or pay some comparable player after 2019. The amount they're paying for 2018-19 above the existing contract price is just the cost of getting Altuve's signature on the extension. This isn't "doing right by Altuve" so much as it's "doing right by the Astros." As noted baseball commentator Michael Corleone once put it, "this is business, this isn't personal."

I think they are showing the organization that they are going to treat him as a person, and not an asset.

Which is, of course rare.

Obviously, by the Astros measurements, they see surplus value here. But that seems hard to see by us.

actionjackson · 03-18-2018, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

I think they are showing the organization that they are going to treat him as a person, and not an asset.

Which is, of course rare.

Obviously, by the Astros measurements, they see surplus value here. But that seems hard to see by us.

I think the value for the Astros is coming in the fact that they won't be paying him a penny for a season after his age 34 season, which is relatively young for a deal of this magnitude to be ending. If Altuve is still playing well then, he goes out on the free agent market, which has been, to say the least, unkind to players of that age, but still he gets a chance to make some more. I think it's win/win, and let's face it, those are the best kinds of deals.

MBarrett · 03-18-2018, 10:51 AM

Altuve's current contract is an absolute steal for the Astros. He knows this, they know this, everyone knows this. This extension is them doing right by their franchise player and making up for those years where he was severly underpaid.

The Astros are letting everyone know that they take care of their own. That's how you keep your current players happy and that's how you attract Free Agents.

03-17-2018, 01:06 PM	#1
Elendil Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: the dynasty forum Posts: 2,318	Help me understand the Jose Altuve deal https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/jose...os/c-268898340 The Astros had him under contract for '18 and '19 already. So why sign an extension now paying out $30m/year through his age 33 year? I can't see that they've gotten much of a break off what the market price would likely be for him at age 29. Factor in inflation and maybe it looks a little better for the team. Still, risky move making this extension so early. __________________ Heaven is kicking back with a double Talisker and a churchwarden stuffed with latakia.

03-17-2018, 01:35 PM	#2
Airdrop01 All Star Starter Join Date: May 2009 Location: Lenexa, KS / Wilson, WY Posts: 1,354	Sometimes you do a thing because it is the right thing to do. It ends up working both ways (sometimes). Gil Meche for example. This seems to me a lot like the Salvador Perez situation a couple years ago. __________________ Last edited by Airdrop01; 03-17-2018 at 01:38 PM.

03-17-2018, 03:14 PM	#4
Airdrop01 All Star Starter Join Date: May 2009 Location: Lenexa, KS / Wilson, WY Posts: 1,354	They do sometimes. Salvador Perez. Gil Meche. Stan Musial before them. __________________

03-17-2018, 03:41 PM	#6
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 15,819	They probably figured better to give him a 5 year extension now rather than have to give him 7 or 8 years when his deal is up.

03-18-2018, 09:13 AM	#8
Jeffy25 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 2,506	In the end, it's probably mostly fine. It's a bit of a reach and too soon, they probably could have done this same deal next off-season with the same amount of information and another 8 win season. But it also gives him 2 years to get hurt have an issue or regress, and then this extension kicks in. I believe Howard tore his achillies on the last play before his extension started. If they had waited, no way does he land 5/$125 that off-season. Does Braun still get 5/$105 on the open market after 2015? Does Tulo still get 6/$118M after 2014? Does Miggy still get 8/248 after 2015? Maybe on some of these, but usually these very early, max free agency pay deals, rarely pay out correctly for the team. It seems more about loyalty. Altuve age at time of extension - entering age 28 season - covers age 30-34 seasons for $151M Braun age at time of extension - entering age 27 season - covers age 32-37 seasons if mutual option exercised - $105M up to $116M if option picked Tulo age at time of extension - entering age 26 season - replaced final three years of control for a new deal covering age 26-35 - 10-157.75M - with another 11M if option picked up - it's really a 6/118M deal over his age 30-35 seasons though Ryan Howard was two years older, and his deal is treated a lot the same, but for $25M less. He was coming off his 4th consecutive, top 5 MVP finish (actually top 3 in 3 of those 4 years). He also gave them another two top 10 MVP finishes in those last two years of control Over the time of the extension though, he hit a combined .226/.292/.427 and was worth a -4.5 rWAR Pedroia and Tulo are the two, very early extensions that probably fit a bit better here than Howard. At least 2 years of team control at time of extension. Right handed hitting middle infielders who had already signed team friendly deals. Coming off repeatedly great seasons. Tulo, the Rox got more years of control for more money. Pedroia, the Sox got more years of control for less money. I remember lamenting in how awful that Ryan Howard deal was at the time. Altuve I can somewhat support more. Nothing about Howard's deal made sense. He was given a record amount for a 1B, per AAV. The same type of deal they would have potentially given him at that time. The Phillies paid him as if he was on the open market. Altuve would have likely cost more than this if he was a free agent right now I guess the risk for the Astros was that Altuve performs this well again in 2018, and then wouldn't take such a short term extension, and would have pushed for Cano money and years a year away from free agency. What they retain here is the shortness of only a 5 year extension, and are unburdened by him at his age 34. It also shows guys like Correa that they are committed here and want to retain the face of the franchise and don't mind a high AAV coming up. For Altuve, it's **** you money for the rest of his life. Obvious win for him. But for the Astros, I can see the value, when I couldn't see it for the Phillies with Howard.

03-18-2018, 10:51 AM	#11
MBarrett All Star Reserve Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Canada Posts: 627	Altuve's current contract is an absolute steal for the Astros. He knows this, they know this, everyone knows this. This extension is them doing right by their franchise player and making up for those years where he was severly underpaid. The Astros are letting everyone know that they take care of their own. That's how you keep your current players happy and that's how you attract Free Agents.