The Reference League - Random Debut Historical

[quillenl]

The questions I ask myself are the same as most...
How would Babe Ruth or Walter Johnson do in today's game?
What would Hoyt Wilhem's career have looked like if he'd ben used more similarly to closers of the last 40 years?

These and other fantasy baseball world questions drive me to make one Random Debut Historical League after another looking for just that right combination of settings in game to satisfy me. Sometimes I would use ActionJackson's idea of picking a year and using that each season (I preferred 1979), often I would set my own settings for palatable looking leaderboards and use autocalc. These leagues often had results that looked good but something in the back of my head just kept bothering me...

While I was happy with the results I was hardly using a seasonal statistical model that reflected an average of what all these players experienced. In 1984 .77 HRs per game were hit but in 1927 that number was only .37. In playing a historical sim using players from 1897 on I was weighting the results towards the latter half of the century. What would the results look like if I my stats used to adjust the modifiers were based on an average and not some season I selected with bias?

And thus was born "The Reference League" - A Random Debut Historical League based on the average stats of 1901-2019.

Nothing is perfect, and this isn't a science project by any means. Parks are neutralized along with finances. many settings are still biased towards the seasons after 1970 because that's what I enjoy playing. I am using the Talent Development Engine set to Randomness of 1 instead of Recalcing each year (I have been very happy with these results for the most part). Player Personalities are on, injuries are on Very Low (Fatigues is on Very High), and I am sure I have no less than 10 other settings in a configuration that will upset others.

All that aside, I decided to share this journey as I reexplore the fantastical world of Random Debut. Welcome to 1901 Major League Baseball.

[quillenl]

Couple other settings of this league that are probably worth knowing .

1) The Screenshot I attached shows the general stats I am autocalcing to. Some do not like Autocalc, but it works for what I am looking for as long as I am willing to babysit a couple of other settings (I regularly have to set Bunting to Normal from high and Stealing Bases from Normal to Rarely as two quick examples).

2) Pitching. Starting Rotation Mode is set to "Strict Rotation, occasionally highest rated". The number of Starters and relievers are set to 5 each with position players set to 14. This is only 24 players, but I like leaving the decision of 10 or 11 man staff to the AI.

3)There is no DH, two-way players, or the use of openers in this league. This is just a personal preference for the most part though usually, I like playing with a DH. I felt DH should be all or nothing for a more neutral player career and there simply have been more seasons without than with so it missed the cut.

4) It is a 154 game schedule with Interleague play on. Interleague play also goes against what I would normally play... but I want all these players to have to face each other as often as possible to minimize the outliers in statistical categories any given season.

5) Injuries are set to Very Low with Fatigue set to Very High.

6) Storylines are on because it is not an immersive experience unless you get pissed off at least obce.

The League was setup by a pretty overly complicated process that works for me so I'm sticking with it.

Short version:

I start the League in 1885 and expand over the next 3-5 years to the desired league size and alignment.

I proceed to run through season editing the draft pool to remove players I know I want to have the potential of seeing a full career ( I will delete all League History once I hit 1901). This is just personal preference to make the league more fun to play for me later.

[quillenl]

Another thing I like to do when I am putting this much effort into a league is get all the stadiums right. By right, I mean replace with stadiums I prefer.

Silvam14 has a great thread where I get most from.
https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=287547

This will eat up a good chunk of time as I'll be doing the same for the Minor League Teams as well. If you are not concerned about neutral park factors these will make you happy as they have some pretty decent factors you can just run with. At the end of the day when I am watching a game play out... Fenway Stadium on the left just looks a lot better than Fenway stadium on the right

[quillenl]

With the league in day one of the offseason prior to the 1901 seasons it is time to apply for some jobs. I've unchecked "cannot be fired" (it is left checked in the Quickstart File), turned off Commissioner Mode and am ready to see what is open.

I've got a couple inquiries from the Nashville Sound and the Fresno Grizzlies about managing their AAA teams that I politely decline. For the top gig I see offers from
Pirates (80-82)
Royals (65-97)
Indians (80-82)
Rangers (81-81)

None of these cities particularly appeals to me. Kansas City has the first pick in the draft but I don't see anyone in the pool I'd build a team around. Cleveland has the tops Minor League system but it's due to the current #3 prospect being a reliever... so nothing really appealing there either. The Rangers are the closest to having a prospect with a name I recognize in Matty Alou who sits with a max contact rating and above average ratings for Center.

I look a little closer at Pittsburgh. They second to last for Minor League System ranking with only a 25 year old 1st baseman with no bat ranking in the top 100. They ranked 4th in ERA with a very young pitching staff but have a ton of guys about to hit Free Agency in less than a month. Will be tough to hit 80 wins if none of these guys resign as you have to put 9 guys out there on defense.

Sounds like a rebuilding project... count me in.

In the lineup below the following players are unsigned:
Babich (25 yr old 3 star), Boswell, Greene, Hendriks (4 star), and Smith (27 year old elite fielder).

[quillenl]

I'm hoping to turn this gig into an opportunity for something better. You couple that with being a new GM on a short leash and it's clear it would not be prudent to use a strategy of giving up on the season for a high draft pick. I need to do what I need to this season without losing too much and try to be competitive by 1902 or 1903 at the latest. I won't be given very long to turn it around before getting fired.

For short turnarounds, my strategy is to focus on defense up and down for both the Outfield and Infield. I won't be able to be as picky as I'd in acquiring pitching in a short time period so they'll need defensive help pretty much everywhere.

The breakdown:
C - Gene Oliver starts here, is 33, and is only a 5 rated catcher. There's no one else in the organization that should be starting so this will have to be filled by a trade or Free Agency. I'll be looking for a young guy with a high Catcher Ability in Free Agency or via Trades. If he can hit it will be an unexpected surprise I'm not counting on.
1B - 27 Year Old Pancho Herrera starts here and looks solid. He's green for contact, power, eye, and defense. He's under contract for 4 more seasons so I have high hopes he will see a lot of time in the FOUR spot.
2B - Jimmy Smith shows blue level power but is a Free Agent. Behind him is another slick fielding 2B with less power in Nick Hoerner. Nick is a weak hitter overall, but his fielding may allow me to fix 2B later instead of sooner.
SS - This position is a hot mess. Only 1 person in the organization looks like he can field and I'd be lucky if that guy batted over .100. The previous starter (Khalil Greene) is 35 with a weak bat and a glove that doesn't make up for the bat. Maybe he was good at one point but I'll lose him in Free Agency this offseason and not lose sleep over it. I can't really end up worse at the position. This will be a priority upgrade with a focus on elite fielding.
3B - 28-year-old unmotivated George Arias is the current starter. Clubhouse chemistry is going to be key in a quick turnaround so his day's are numbered. He'll get moved to acquire a body at one of the positions of need. 28 yr old Rafael Ynoa is the current backup. He looks mediocre in every way... but at least he doesn't look like he will hurt the team. he may get to stay a season before I go looking for an upgrade unless something surprises me in Free Agency (looking at you Mr. Unsigned Thirdbasemen in March).
LF - 25 yr old Carl Crawford is a lock in Leftfield. His yellow rated arm is weak for what I like at the position... but his bat is solid and this is a low priority position to mess with. He is only moved if I find myself in a corner trying to upgrade Shortstop this offseason.
CF - This position is a trainwreck. Everyone in the organization is either old or bad... but mostly both. The current starter (Clint Conaster) is a 2.5-star player but clearly 1 full star of that is work ethic. His bat is average, his fielding not quite so, but the utility OFers make him look like a stud.
RF - 28 Year Old Zaza Harvey starts here with a decent arm for the position and blue rated Contact. He also brings speed and additional ratings that cement him at leadoff. He makes 19 mil a year so he likely won't be appealing to other teams as I look for upgrades so I feel certain I'll be seeing him two more seasons.
SP - Team has a decent 1/2 between 24 yr oldBrian Lawrence and 28 yr old Lefty Chambers. The former brings 5 above-average pitches and elite control while the latter gets by with only 3 pitches of which one is an elite changeup. I am a huge fan of seeing that sky blue and max number when looking at a player's pitches. The current 3 and 4 are headed for Free Agency. Babich is only 25 and looks like one of those guys who fade out after 25. Boswell is 32. I'll probably have to replace both unless one is willing to sign cheap. We'll be counting on the defense to make our players here look much better than they are. 22 yr old second-year player Frank Castillo was the 5 guy last season but may move to 3 this year. He brings 6 pitches, 2 of which are great. He looks like he will give up some homers... but that's ok for the #3 guy on a turnaround project.
Bullpen - 32 yr old closer Liam Hendriks looks elite but he's a free agent and I fully expect he will be looking for a long term paycheck I'm unwilling to spend. A shame as I'd like to have traded him the previous season on an 80-82 team instead of losing him for nothing. There are no other superstars in the bullpen, but plenty of guys 28 and younger who look adequate. Relievers are notoriously hard to trade for position players I need... so it looks like most of my bullpen is set for the immediate future.

My minor league affiliate is filled with old men and first baseman. I'll use every opportunity I have to move these guys and replace them with youth regardless of the talent level. an 18-year-old half star prospect is more valuable to me than a 25-year-old 2 star that will never see the majors.

[quillenl]

I went ahead and offered all my minor leaguers eligible for free agency extensions. Need to find out who needs adding to the 40 man roster. That allows me to focus on the current immediate concern of who will be on the staff going forward.

I look at my Trainer first. Injuries are set to Very Low and Fatigue is Very high so the most important trait they will bring is Fatigue Recovery and this guy is rated Poor. I fire him and start looking at coaches.

My coaching philosophy is based on a couple of things I can gleam from the information we have without busting into the editor.
1) For Minors, I am looking for "pretty good influence on Young Players". This does not tell me he has a high rating, but it does tell me his Handles Young Players is much higher than his Handles Veterans. It does not tell me anything about his ability to teach Pitching or Hitting... and I don't know that it makes any measurable difference... but it can't hurt
2) Hitting and Pitching coach philosophies are similar for the Majors. I'll tend to try and fill these spots with folks that want to be Managers as their ratings under the hood have a better chance of being decent. If a Manager is Excellent for Development Influence he generally has pretty good traits across the board and will make a great coach. I won't have guys like this everywhere I want in one offseason
3) For my teams, I will be looking for a Personable Manager. and Bench Coach. The way I put together Team Chemistry will result in these guys tending to have the best relationships with my players. The Bench Coach will always be hired with the intent of being a Manager in waiting. I favor Managers who tend to be middle road in most of their strategies but slightly aggressive calling steals and hooking starters. The only extreme I'll tolerate are managers who do not like bunts... you guys are fine!

None of my guys fit what I look for so I'll get replacing them

[quillenl]

All the Minor Leaguers signed Minor League extensions. That is not necessarily a good thing as it means none of them thought they deserved a Major League spot. Not a good sign... but not a surprise either.

The coach and trainer pickings on the Market were slim. I put warm bodies in spots, but I am a little concerned about the Manager position. I ended up going with a 46-year-old Unorthodox Manager who has 15 players in the "Lower Influence" list. he has pretty good relationships with the players but his tactics don't mesh up with mine either so he'll be replaced as soon as someone better comes along unless he is winning playoff games.

[quillenl]

Pickings are slim with the 18th pick. I start off the my rebuild project picking up CF Cesar Geronimo. He's not nearly developed enough to start this season so he'll have to sit in the Minors for this next season as I look forward to Free Agency and trades.

First trade I make lands me a temporary fill in at CF in 28 yr old Milt Byrnes. He's making 9 million after arbitration for the Royals which is apparently too much for them as I land him and some B level prospects for my utility infielder Tyler Smith.


I pick up elite fielding 3 star Brendan Ryan to fill the shortstop role for a package of prospects. He has a below average bat but the fielding will be everything I need.

The catcher I need is available in Free Agency. The catch is he is 41 years old. He is asking for 5.9 mil with a vesting option for a 2nd year. I offer him 7.9 each hoping he will sign quickly.

It is Day 2 of Free Agency and I have 24 million in comfortable margin and a need to win soon. Chemistry problem children have been jettisoned and I have 2 leaders in the clubhouse already. The only positive type I am missing is a prankster so I wil keep an eye out for someone who can fill that role as I fill positional needs.

I shop another of my utility infielders around and nap 35 yr old 3B Al Dark. He is the wrong side of 30 and in the last year of his contract, but he cost me very little. He's an elite fielder at third and had I gotten him 10 seasons ago I'd probably have moved him to short. The fans love him and I have about 12 million of salary room left before I start cutting into cash.

In Free Agency I find a backup SS with the captain trait who is only asking for a little over a million. I still need a couple cheap starting pitchers to fill the 4 and 5 holes and find one immediately in Jeff Sellers. He is 29 with 2 elite pitches and an above average changeup. His other ratings are nothing to write home about, but he is asking for a minor league contract so I am hoping a 2 year deal for a million each will sway him quickly. He looks like someone who can do well short term in the right environment. 28 Year old Drew Pomeranz is similar to Sellers with two elite pitches and otherwise pedestrian looking stuff. He has the high leader trait and a 9 rating for Holding runners and looks to be well worth the risk at 3 years of 3.8 mil each (last yr is a team option). For bullpen help Liam Hendriks is there asking for 4.4mil per season over 3 which is less than I previously offered him. I make the offer and cross my fingers.

Looking at my current roster, Al Dark is looking for 6 mil to extend a season. He is probably declining, but with his Defense and intangibles it is worth the risk. He'll make a great backup and clubhouse guy worst case and I should have plenty of budget room in 2 seasons.

By Dec 2nd Sellers and Pomeranz have signed and everyone else still favors my offers. The starting rotation looks set, I have 4 mil in budget room and 10 mil in cash to increase offers if anyone gets made a better deal. Liam Hendrik is resigned by December 5th and the rotation is actually starting to look pretty good for the budget. By December 16th Buck Ewing signs for the original offer. Took a bit so I expect he had some nibbles from other teams... but he will go a long way towards decreasing the number of runs allowed this season if he can hold up for just a few more months.

On the 18th Dave Anderson has signed to provide infield depth and leadership in the clubhouse. I look at the projected lineups and see my new Manager has my stud SS signing as the starter at 2B. I'd picked up a great fielder to provide depth there that he's going to start apparently. I'll allow it for now, but wil be watching it early to see if I have to force him to start the guys where I intended. Rosters look set across the board earlier than expected and the rest of this offseason will be spend checking for any late deals on the Free Agent market.

Next up will be simming to Preseason which is my personal milestone for ensuring all my staff get offered extension along with my minor league players. Newly drafted players have the opportunity to decline a minor league extension in my league so now is when I want to find out if I'll have to add them to the 40 man roster. Not as big a concern right now with only 28 players on it. With injuries set to Very Low I am tempted to reduce the 40 man roster down to 30 players but I'm afraid of how the AI might react. The last thing I want it doing is throwing prospects on waivers needlessly.

With extensions done, and no deals in Free Agency I can happily sim to the start of Spring Training and check the intial Predicted Standings and see where I stand. It seems I stand at a predicted 86-76. This doesn't mean as much as the opening day one will, but it still makes me feel good as I always expect to have at least 5 more wins then the predicted standings with how I build my teams.

[quillenl]

With Spring Training behind us, we cap the evening by simming to Opening Day. This offseason we replaced 2 departing starting pitchers with similar value bargains in Free Agency. We picked up Buck Ewing n Free Agency as well who is an elite defender but over 40. We also picked up Free Agent SS Cesar Izturis as a backup Infielder but he wowed the coaches and is now pencilled to start at Short.

We continued the wholesale replacement up the middle by trading for Milt Byrnes for CF and Brendan Ryan who will start the season at Second.

The procrostinators have us winning 99 games and taking the National League East behind a stout pitching staff. 3 of our returning starters appear in the top 10 National League pitchers and are joined by Free Agent Drew Pomeranz who they see going 15-9 with a 3.36 ERA.

Will be a very fine season indeed if this pitching staff lives up to the hype.

[quillenl]

With some sleep, and a feeling of refreshment, I jump back into it ready to go. Ir is day one and I have a few more boxes to check before playing through my first season.

One thing I check to keep myself honest is the player positional rankings. It's a good AI "abuse" check when you trade for several players. I wouldn't expect to have acquired top-rated players for what amounted to utility players... and checking the rankings I did not so all is good in Reference World.

The other thing I will have to do is fiddle with the Strategy settings the Manager has set. As managers gain experience you will be able to fiddle with the settings less and less but I take advantage of it when I can. For a example my current Manager REALLY loved the intentional walk... and we are going to go ahead and lower that to just below neutral. He also hates to pitch around about as much as he loves walking... so we will move that towards the center as well. I alter some others but I think you get the idea by now.

The last thing that is a must setting for me, but oddly enough few others seem to use, is to set pitch count to 110. I'll do this in every league with modern-day settings. Might be observer bias, but always seems to make a huge difference to me. Managers are an odd lot and will leave guys in till their arm falls off if they are pitching a good game... but I prefer pulling them prior to that first big hit. The pitch count of 110 minimizes the times these guys will be asked to throw 120+ pitches. With a different team-building strategy (remember I am not out hunting Aces to trade for) I might think differently.

Time to play ball!

[quillenl]

April 12th
27 yr old SP Roy Oswalt is released and I eat 13.8 mil of his salary. He had nothing left in Spring Training and I could find no takers either on the trade block or the waiver wire. Luckily he was in the last year of his contract.

May 1st 13-12
My Pirates are 13-12 scoring the second-most runs in the National League. We are committing a lot more errors than anticipated at this point (11th in the league) and the pitching is not currently reflecting the pregame hype as Lefty Chambers carries a 5.17 ERA. I'm not too worried, however, as underlying stats tell me things are better than they look for all but Jeff Sellers. Sellers is giving up both a lot of walks and home runs while having only a .223 BABIP. He has the best ERA of the starters right now (3.13), but those stats are an indicator that his ERA could balloon quickly.

June 1st 29-23
Pirates trail the Atlanta Braves by 2 and a half games and are currently in 4th place. It is shaping up like a tight race between the Braves, Cubs, Expos, and ourselves. The Offense is still doing well and is 3rd in runs scored. Zaza Harvey, who I expected to bat leadoff has been hitting 3rd and currently leads the team in HRs with 5. The lineup is very different than I would like, with things like Carl Crawford batting 4th, but it is doing well and I am less than 3 games out so I'll leave it alone. Brian Lawrence continues to struggle in the top rotation spot with a 4.92 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Jeff Sellers continues to outperform is underlying stats (4.63 FIP) going 5-1 with a 3.52 ERA. So far things look good and I resist the urge to tinker.
This is also a good point in the season to revisit any players who may be considering Free Agency. Dick Conger, a 29-year-old reliever is the only one I am considering. He is young, semi-reliable, and brings High Leadership. He also wants over 2 million for an extension for a guy who throws about 35 innings a season. I'll have to pass and look for clubhouse leadership a bit more cheaply elsewhere this offseason.

June 28th 44-33
Liam Hendriks is injured with an uncertain return date. Even at Very Low settings this can and will happen. My bullpen is solid, but he makes a huge difference there. He was projected to pitch 121 innings this season (probably part of the problem). I may have to look at how the manager is running his bulpen when he comes back.


All Star Break 50-37 1 1/2 GB 2nd
Zaza Harvey (RF) finsihed 2nd in All-Star Voting for RF behind Sherry Magee of the Houston Astros. Liam Hendriks (still out with a sore shoulder and no return date) was the top vote getter amongst relievers. Both men went on to represent the Pirates in the All Star game.

The team itself is still keeping it close trailing the bubs by a little more than a game. Starting pitchers Drew Pomeranz and Jeff Sellers continue to be solid in the #3 and # 5 slots of the rotation with a 2.61 and 3.68 ERA respectively. Defensively the team has given up the 2nd fewest runs in the league. Offensively, things are coming back down to earth and the team ranks 6th in runs scored. The Manager has started batting Zaza first which I am grateful for. Al Dark, despite his positional ranking, is hitting like the 36 year old he just became. Buck Ewing is batting .269 which is great because I'd have taken far less than that with his glove and game calling ability. None of the guys aI brought on are batting below 200 so I am doing much better than expected at this point.

[quillenl]

July 15th 52-39 1 1/2 GB 3rd
Liam Hendriks seems to be recovered and is back on the roster. I go ahead and tell the Manager to use him as a Closer instead of a Stopper for fear of overuse. We may need to ensure he is available for the playoffs.

August 1st 62-44 1st Place

September 1st 78-56 1st Place
I have a 2 1/2 game lead over the Cubs. Zaza contnues to lead the way at the top of thew batting order with a .338 batting average. Pancho leads the team with 10 home runs at this point so while the team leads the league in runs at this point... it has been due to anything but a Murderer's Row lineup.

Regular Season End. 94-68 1st Place

The Pirates are in the Playoffs! They will meet the Houston Astros for the right to represent the National League in the World Series against either the Milwaukee Brewers or Texas Rangers. Lineup and final player stats in the screenshot below. Al Fark really turned it around with the bat in the second half to top 100 RBIs. The new guys I picked up didn't embarrass themselves in the bottom 3rd of the lineup. Couldn't have been happier with both Sellers and Pomeranz at the prices they cost me.

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[quillenl]

2001 Top Batters and Pitchers by WAR

[quillenl]

2001 League Leaders

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[quillenl]

The Pirates win the League Championship Series behind Buck Ewing who bated .480 in the series. This series was a nailbiter with the Astros taking the first two games in Pittsburg and then the first of the series in Houston. Pittsburgh went on to win the next 4 and advance to the World Series. Very exciting series!

[quillenl]

Pirates win the World Series behind Series MVP Milt Byrnes over the Milwaukee Brewers 4 games to 2. The pitching was stellar and never gave up more than four runs in any game of the 6 game series.

[quillenl]

A little collage of all the important screens I want to be able to look back on

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[quillenl]

I pick late and it hurts. Team doesn't have that much talent, but it had a great season. Everyone left is a risk so I decide to go with 18 year old Tom Underwood and hope he develops well. Youth is the theme throughout the draft as I go for the long game. I'll have to count on Free Agency and outsmarting the AI on expenses in the short term.

Top 5 picks below.

[quillenl]

At the start of Free Agency I have about 5 mil in budget room. I'm returning basically the same team that won the World Series so I can't change much. One of the unfortuneate side effects of trying to "keep it real" is not tearing up a team for any reason other than budget when you win. I know this team outperformed, but no way does a profitable team make major changes to a team that just completed a great season (1981 Yankees excepted).

Looking at my minors, my previous #1 pick Cesar Geronimo is not ready. He bat .215 in the minors last season and is still far below average for most ratings. My #2 pick from that same draft, Pete Broberg, did ok with a 3.54 ERA at Indianapolis. I'm returning the same rotation that won a World Series so he will likely get an additional season of development. He'll be available as trade bait for a future catcher if the opportunity arises.

Zaza Harvey wants 30 mil a year for a 3 year extension. I'm still actively pursuing job openings in New York, Chicago, or Oakland... so maybe. I think it's a mistake and would mean losing some other key pieces. Still, can't trade the star on a team that just won the World Series. We'll see how we look closer to the Trade Deadline.

We start the season with much the same team we enoyed last season. This year, however, the OSA does not seem to be quite as enthusiastic about our pitching. Buck's age and performance at Catcher will be key this season as we will keep our finger on the trigger for a big move there if the season is headed south come the trade deadline.

[quillenl]

At the start of Free Agency, I have about 5 mil in budget room. I'm returning basically the same team that won the World Series so I can't change much. One of the unfortunate side effects of trying to "keep it real" is not tearing up a team for any reason other than budget when you win. I know this team outperformed, but no way does a profitable team make major changes to a team that just completed a great season (1981 Yankees excepted).

Looking at my minors, my previous #1 pick Cesar Geronimo is not ready. He bat .215 in the minors last season and is still far below average for most ratings. My #2 pick from that same draft, Pete Broberg, did ok with a 3.54 ERA at Indianapolis. I'm returning the same rotation that won a World Series so he will likely get an additional season of development. He'll be available as trade bait for a future catcher if the opportunity arises.

Zaza Harvey wants 30 mil a year for a 3 year extension. I'm still actively pursuing job openings in New York, Chicago, or Oakland... so maybe. I think it's a mistake and would mean losing some other key pieces. Still, can't trade the star on a team that just won the World Series. We'll see how we look closer to the Trade Deadline.

We start the season with much the same team we enjoyed last season. This year, however, the OSA does not seem to be quite as enthusiastic about our pitching. Buck's age and performance at Catcher will be key this season as we will keep our finger on the trigger for a big move there if the season is headed south come the trade deadline.