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OOTP 23 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 05-09-2022, 12:27 AM   #21
luckymann
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1906 Draft

A fairly uneventful Draft, with Shawn Green taken first overall by the Halos, from Matt Williams and Al Bumbry. NeL superhero Satchel Paige makes his entrance, along with Ray Brown and Rap Dixon.




This year's LL is Richard Treadway, whose sole season was in 1963 with Wytheville of the Appalachian League.
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Old 05-09-2022, 08:06 AM   #22
italyprof
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This is brilliant! How do you combine the MLB and MiLB databases? Do you need to know about coding, or, you know, things invented after Jimmy Carter was president? Or is it some simple procedure?
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Old 05-09-2022, 08:14 AM   #23
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This is brilliant! How do you combine the MLB and MiLB databases? Do you need to know about coding, or, you know, things invented after Jimmy Carter was president? Or is it some simple procedure?
Hahahaha. No, not at all. If you did, it would be well beyond me.

PM me your email address and I'll get you sorted.

G
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Old 05-09-2022, 08:56 AM   #24
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1906 Top Players / Prospects





The usual roll call of randoms to be investigated further.

11th-ranked pitcher Ben Smith's only season IRL was in 1925 for Kinston of the Virginia League, where he went 9-14 / 4.02. His four OFA seasons have seen him work a solid enough 49-40 record with an ERA+ of 119 and 17 WAR.

Sven Ellinger, whom BNN thinks will hit a whopping 63 homers this season, is perhaps the greatest enigma the OFA has yet seen. He is actually a pitcher first and foremost, playing in the MiLB nether reaches in the 1900s. Given his in-game career hitting stats allot him 6 HR in 38 AB, I can see how that pro-ratas out to a big number, but seeing as I had adjust / weaken set to 120/100 on import, I am unsure how he hasn't - as David Watts has got me saying - been "made bad". But his 95 PWR rating shows he hasn't, not one bit. After playing for the M's in '01 and '02 (belting 29 HR combined), he has been down in the minors ever since. Obviously he's been working out and working hard on his game because he has come back a beast. Was BALCO around back then, per chance?

Cubs 3B Jerry Mally is another expected to do big things in this, his rookie season. Jer played his only season for the brilliantly named Fargo-Moorehead Twins in 1906's Northern League, going 16-for-46 with 3 HR.

Finally, meet Thomas Waivada, soon to be playing SS for the Reds in his rookie year. Thomas - Tom to his friends, among whom I now consider myself one - also played just the solitary season, which for him was with the Morristown Cubs in the Appy League. BNN thinks he'll make quite the splash with a 266/307/562 slash, 48 HR and 140 RBI. Let's see if the pressure gets to him. Knowing Tom as I do, I doubt it.

Quite a few interesting offseason moves, including legendary slugger and all-time OFA HR leader Maurice Colona being shipped from the Dodgers to the Royals. Wonder how he'll like the change of scenery.

Interestingly, IRL HOFer Bill Terry, who was imported into this save back in the league's inaugural year as an age-17 pitcher and played for the Pods (34-19 / 118 ERA+) until becoming a FA last offseason, remains unsigned as at OD.
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Last edited by luckymann; 05-09-2022 at 09:16 AM.
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Old 05-10-2022, 06:42 AM   #25
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1906 Season Recap




The Red Sox beat the Yankees in a tiebreak for the AL East title, forcing the Pinstripers into another sudden-death game against the White Sox for the WC2 slot, which Chicago wins 9-3 to advance.


Awards







Top 20s by WAR





Feats of Note
  • No-Hitters: NIL
  • Cycles: Connor Norby, Eric Karros, Urbane Pickering
  • 50+ HR Seasons: Brandon Lowe (60), Thomas Waivada (50)
  • 150+ RBI Seasons: Thomas Waivada (154)
  • 6-Hit Games: Ed Sauer

Those BNN guys really know their stuff!

Tom Waivada excels as predicted, belting 50 HR and driving in a league-high 154 runs, yet somehow fails to win the NL RoY. Instead, it is Jerry Mally who earns that gong by dint of his stellar 5.9 WAR campaign.

Sven Ellinger, meanwhile, has a fantastic two-way year - he goes 13-3 with an ERA+ of 99 and also cracks 49 jacks, racking up a combined 4 WAR for his efforts.

Grover Gillen is another breakout star, with his 23 wins for the A's leading the OFA. IRL, Grover spent a decade up and down the minors and across the country as both a hitter and hurler, with his 22-22 1907 for Toledo of the American Association arguably his best seasonal effort.

Ben Smith decides to hang up the cleats aged 33, closing out his career with a 65-58 record, a 120 ERA+ and 24 WAR while signing off in '06 with a new OFA-high 273 strikeouts. Same goes for Harry Taylor, who burns brightly but for only a short time with 123 HR and 305 RBI in his three OFA seasons for the Brew Crew.
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Old 05-10-2022, 07:50 AM   #26
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1907 Draft

Some real quality entering the OFA in this Draft, as Ralph Kiner is taken first overall by the Rays, ahead of Roy Campanella and Danny Tartabull.




1907's LL is Bo Ford, whose only season was for the Orioles' team in the GCL in 2009. A native of Lakeland FL, he'll start his OFA career nice and close to home at the Baton Rouge Rapids, the Reds' A-Ball club.
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Old 05-10-2022, 10:45 AM   #27
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1907 Top Players / Prospects






In addition to the usual suspects, three players are worth watching out for in 1907.

NeLer Buddy Fields (erroneously imported under the name "Romey") didn't make much of a splash IRL in his three seasons spread over 8 years, but finds himself the #2-ranked position player in the league as of Opening Day.

The wonderfully-named Ledger Free spent most of his short career in the 1910s at the MINK League's Auburn Athletics. Can't exactly say why, but BNN believes he's set to take the OFA by storm in his third season, predicting he'll power the Rays offence with 59 HR.

Another they regard highly is Cubs 1B Richie Meningall. Richie's real-life career consisted of just the one season for the Johnson City Phillies in the APPY League of 1958, where he put together a pretty impressive performance including 11 HR and 42 RBI in 216 AB. He had a fantastic rookie season last year, slashing 284/354/558 with 42 taters and 124 ribeyes, and the pundits are predicting him to do something similar this time around.

And this time it is Wahoo Sam Crawford who joins the league.
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Old 05-11-2022, 09:59 AM   #28
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1907 Season Recap




The Yankees are involved in another AL East title tiebreak, this time against the Blue Jays after they both finish the regular season at 86-76. the Pinstripers win it 7-1 to advance, while the Jays miss out entirely.


Awards







Top 20s by WAR





Feats of Note
  • Cycles: Ed Sauer, Jason Regan, Rap Dixon, Rudy Regalado
  • 50+ HR Seasons: Brandon Lowe (56), Harmon Killebrew (52)
  • 150+ RBI Seasons: Brandon Lowe (160)
  • 4-HR Games: Brandon Lowe

Milestones
  • 300 HR: Harmon Killebrew

New Season Records
  • Rusty Greer: 470 OBP
  • Ken Raffensberger: 25 wins


Ledger Free (49 HR / 121 RBI) lives up to the hype, while Richie Meningall just drops off a bit of a cliff and Buddy Fields' season is interrupted by injury.

Arthur Haas, who played just one season for two teams in the 1931 Middle Atlantic League, certainly outshines that in his second OFA season. Arthur goes 22-5 to pace the NL in wins with a sparkling 130 ERA+, good for 5.7 pWAR.

Michael Stefanic, who is currently working his way up the Halos system (at present he's playing at AAA Salt Lake), continues his fine OFA career with a career high 321 BA and nearly 5 bWAR.

Despite a sensational rookie year that sees his rack up 7.3 pWAR, 19th century American Association pitcher Henry Porter decides to give the game away.
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Old 05-11-2022, 10:08 AM   #29
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I see you started out using 1961 financials. Are you using the reserve clause or did you start free agency early?
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Old 05-11-2022, 10:14 AM   #30
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I see you started out using 1961 financials. Are you using the reserve clause or did you start free agency early?
FA - I hate the reserve clause. Like slave labour to me...
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Old 05-11-2022, 11:21 AM   #31
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FA - I hate the reserve clause. Like slave labour to me...
I'm trying to figure out if something's happened to make it so the AI no longer makes trades when free agency is turned off. Was messing around with a 1915 historical over the weekend and played up to August 1st. No trades were made. I have a random debut set in 1947 that I planned on just allowing financials to progress according to history and again, no trades. I'm approaching the end of May in the random debut. If no trades get made by the trade deadline, I will be turning on FA.
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Old 05-11-2022, 11:22 AM   #32
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I'm trying to figure out if something's happened to make it so the AI no longer makes trades when free agency is turned off. Was messing around with a 1915 historical over the weekend and played up to August 1st. No trades were made. I have a random debut set in 1947 that I planned on just allowing financials to progress according to history and again, no trades. I'm approaching the end of May in the random debut. If no trades get made by the trade deadline, I will be turning on FA.
What AI trade frequency setting do you have it on, DW?
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Old 05-11-2022, 12:06 PM   #33
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What AI trade frequency setting do you have it on, DW?
I always use average.
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Old 05-11-2022, 07:49 PM   #34
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I always use average.
That is weird then, there should be some trades.
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Old 05-12-2022, 12:19 AM   #35
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1908 Draft

Catchers are all the rage this Draft as Mickey Cochrane is taken first overall by the Twins, ahead of Jorge Posada. Freddie Freeman has landed at my A's, with NeLer Quincy Trouppe also entering the league, taken by the Jays with the 19th pick.




This year's LL is Rafael Diplan, who never really made much of an IRL impression in the Cubs organisation during the early 2010s.
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Old 05-12-2022, 02:18 AM   #36
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1908 Top Players / Prospects





13th-ranked position player Brandon Lowe signs a 7-year / $2.962m re-up with the Rockies, while the Mets nab superstar Al Simmons from FA for 8 years / $3.302m - two of the largest contracts in the OFA's (admittedly short) history.

Guardians OF Jose Campos has been a handy contributor since being drafted in '05 (including 98 career HR), and BNN expects this to continue. I really had to get creative here, as no-one of that name appears in BBRef's or Seamheads' DB. After much digging, I got my man. He is actually Roberto Campos, who played a couple seasons (though credited in-game with just 1923) for the Cuban Stars West. He looks a fair player in his day, but has certainly been treated kindly here. Let's see how he goes under his correct nomenclature.

Another to catch my eagle eye is pitcher Darren McCaughan. Mariners fans out there might remember the name but I doubt few others would know it. An alum of Long Beach State, Darren became part of the Seattle organisation in 2017 and finally made it all the way to The Show last year. That didn't work out so well for all concerned, as he made just one start and a relief appearance, ending up with an ERA of 8 over 9 IP. He's back at AAA Tacoma for '22 so I doubt that's the last we've heard of him (then again, at 1-3 / 6.86...). The game has untold faith in him, ranking him as the OFA's second-best pitching prospect (and 8th overall) as at OD.
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Old 05-12-2022, 03:11 AM   #37
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A Quick Observation

For those of you following along who apply your own LTMs to the various levels, something has come to my attention that I thought worth sharing.

I have chosen a particular season for all four levels of the OFA to be replicated, and have manually inserted the required totals and locked them, with the AUTOMATICALLY ADJUST FOR ACCURACY box checked.

What I am seeing here is that, while the MLB LTMs autocalc each season without you having to do anything, this is not the case for minor leagues. These need to be done each season "manually" IE by hitting autocalc on the mornig of Opening Day or else they will stay the same ad infinitum.

Not sure if this is how it is meant to work or if it's a bug.
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Old 05-12-2022, 07:07 AM   #38
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1908 Season Recap




Another rip-roaring finish in the AL East sees the Rays get home with a final day win as the Red Sox lose and have to be content with a WC entry. They do, however ride that almost all the way to the WS, eventually losing in a thrilling seven-game ALCS to the Tigers.


Awards







Top 20s by WAR





Feats of Note
  • Cycles: Urbane Pickering [2], Freddie Freeman, Lou Finney
  • No-Hitters: Lew Moren, Howie Camnitz, Satchel Paige
  • 50+ HR Seasons: Matt Olson (52), Brandon Lowe (51)

Milestones
  • 300 HR: Maurice Colona, Brandon Lowe, Leon Ballard

Brandon Lowe misses out on achieving the OFA's first-ever Triple Crown by just 4 BA pips.

Dick Brookins has parlayed a fairly humdrum four-year IRL career in the low minors into a nice little cameo here in the OFA. After belting 125 HR over his four seasons at Milwaukee, he decides he's had enough and calls time.

Ed McKean sweeps through the OFA like a Category 5 Hurricane, winning both the AL RoY and MVP in an astonishing debut season, then retires. IRL he was a very handy player for various clubs in the late 19th century, with BBRef crediting him with nearly 40 WAR.

Another player leaving the game is pitcher Kirby Hoon. IRL, Kirby played a handful of seasons for the Butte Miners without really covering himself in glory. In the OFA, on the other hand, he retires with 104 wins and 38 pWAR to his credit.

Rusty Hall is the benificiary of some erroneous data, with the game placing the LA Angels of the early 1900s PCL at MLB level rather than the low minors. And boy doesn't he make the most of it this year, leading all OFA pitchers with 9.8 pWAR. That gives him nearly 30 in just three seasons, despite a barely-500 W/L record.

Richie Meningall continues his stellar OFA career, adding 48 HR to his career tally, which now stands at 114. Jerry Mally and John Honig also each break 5 bWAR for the year.
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Old 05-12-2022, 08:10 AM   #39
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1909 Draft

A bit of a shame, really, as the Cards choose Ed Delahanty as the first overall pick ahead of IRL Redbirds legend Stan Musial, who ends up with the Friars. Jorge Posada, who didn't end up signing after being drafted by the Rays last year, is again selected by them, this time third overall. TB must keep aggressively trading away players for picks because they are always near the top despite their consistently strong record in the standings. It might well be the same astute management group running them as in IRL...



The LL for this year is NeLer Robert Poinsette, who played for the 1939 Toledo Crawfords IRL then moved on.

And the world has returned to normal as Paul Molitor enters the fray. It just never feels like a real sim until he's in it...
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Old 05-14-2022, 06:56 AM   #40
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1909 Top Players / Prospects





Sadly, 6th-ranked pitcher Tim Belcher will miss the entire 1909 season through injury.

One player I had previously mentioned, albeit only in passing, is NeLer Clarence (C.B.) Griffin. He played just a handful of years in the 1930s but looks like he was pretty handy, and has certainly done well here. In 5 seasons with the Jays, he has slashed 299/370/440 with 93 HR / 414 RBI, an OPS+ of 121 and 16 bWAR. Nice going, indeed. And he has been rewarded for his efforts with a juicy $288k contract for 1909 with the Guardians.

Our old mate Ledger Free is going to be at it again this year if the pundits are to be believed, with them predicting he'll lead the OFA with 56 HR.

Finally, I'll be keeping an eye on Joe Dillon, the Reds 1B. BNN is expecting big things from him, and he has already far outstripped his relatively modest late-2000s IRL career here in the OFA, with 147 HR and over 20 bWAR (vs 3 and 0.6 IRL) since joining the OFA in its inaugural Draft. Cincy obviously likes what they see, having locked him down until 1914. Not bad for a guy taken 454th overall...
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