The Groundhog Experiment

[Brad K]

I think real or neutralized don't matter for what you are doing. You're trying to find what are the differences in 1 year, 3 year 5 year and different settings for development. Your input is the same database and it's consistent so whether it is right or wrong doesn't matter.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by luckymann

Again, I'm not seeing this. Maris had 62 in 1962 on dev only, as I said earlier. Sounds to me like they are making it up as they go along...

I checked ratings for Maris and they are drastically lower in real than neutralized.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

I checked ratings for Maris and they are drastically lower in real than neutralized.

Well this was with real stats - so, like '61 IRL, it must have been a bit of a fluke.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by luckymann

Again, I'm not seeing this. Maris had 62 in 1962 on dev only, as I said earlier. Sounds to me like they are making it up as they go along...

All kinds of stuff is qualitied by I think, If I remember correctly, stuff like that. Clearly documentation of what has been done is lacking. They don't know what they've done.

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Philadelphia Athletics (88-65)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Pittsburgh Pirates (99-53)
• WORLD SERIES: Athletics 4-2
• WS MVP: Harry Krause

Awards

• AL MVP: Ty Cobb
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner [4]
• AL CYA: Rube Waddell [2]
• NL CYA: Christy Mathewson
• AL ROY: Frank Baker
• NL ROY: Dots Miller

Leaders




Milestones

• 200 wins: Christy Mathewson, Rube Waddell
• 2500 K: Rube Waddell

HOF inductees

Dan Brouthers, Jim O’Rourke


Other points of note

• Triple Crown: Ty Cobb
• Cycle: Ty Cobb
• Perfect Game: Ed Walsh

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: New York Highlanders (87-64)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Chicago Cubs (98-55)
• WORLD SERIES: Cubs 4-2 (2nd title)
• WS MVP: Frank Chance

Awards

• AL MVP: Ty Cobb
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner [4]
• AL CYA: Rube Waddell [3]
• NL CYA: Orval Overall
• AL ROY: Donie Bush
• NL ROY: Tom Downey

Leaders




New season records

• Eddie Collins 42 CS

Milestones

• 200 wins: Christy Mathewson, Rube Waddell, Jack Chesbro
• 2500 K: Rube Waddell
• 2500 hits: Bill Dahlen
• 1000 runs: Roy Thomas

HOF inductees

Dan Brouthers, Jim O’Rourke


Other points of note

• 6-hit game: Hans Lobert
• Cycle: Bill Hinchman

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Detroit Tigers (91-61)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Pittsburgh Pirates (97-55)
• WORLD SERIES: Pittsburgh 4-3 after being down 0-3 (1st title)
• WS MVP: Honus Wagner

Awards

• AL MVP: Tris Speaker
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner [4]
• AL CYA: Rube Waddell [3]
• NL CYA: Orval Overall
• AL ROY: Donie Bush
• NL ROY: Dots Miller

Leaders




New season records

• George Gibson 19 IBB
• Eddie Collins 42 CS

Milestones

• 200 wins: Rube Waddell
• 2500 K: Rube Waddell
• 2500 hits: Bill Dahlen
• 1000 runs: Roy Thomas

HOF inductees

Dan Brouthers, Jim O’Rourke


Other points of note

• Triple Crown: Honus Wagner
• 6-hit game: Steve Evans
• No-hitters: Cy Morgan, Lew Moren

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Detroit Tigers (95-57)
• NL CHAMPIONS: New York Giants (94-59)
• WORLD SERIES: Giants 4-2 (2nd title)
• WS MVP: Larry Doyle

Awards

• AL MVP: Ty Cobb
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner [4]
• AL CYA: Rube Waddell
• NL CYA: Rube Marquard
• AL ROY: Frank Baker
• NL ROY: Dick Egan

Leaders




New season records

• Russ Ford 9 SV
• Harry Davis 160 batter strikeouts

Milestones

• 200 wins: Christy Mathewson
• 2500 K: Rube Waddell
• 3000 hits: Willie Keeler
• 2500 hits: Bill Dahlen

HOF inductees

Dan Brouthers, Jim O’Rourke, Roger Connor


Other points of note

• 6-hit game: Eddie Collins

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Detroit Tigers (98-54)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Chicago Cubs (111-42) – new record for wins
• WORLD SERIES: Cubs 4-1 (2nd title)
• WS MVP: Harry Steinfeldt

Awards

• AL MVP: Eddie Collins
• NL MVP: Solly Hofman
• AL CYA: Eddie Plank
• NL CYA: Johnny Lush
• AL ROY: Donie Bush
• NL ROY: Dick Hoblitzell
• AL Reliever: Elmer Steele

Leaders




New career records

• Cy Young 321 losses

New season records

• Eddie Collins 13.35 bWAR

Milestones

• 200 wins: Christy Mathewson, Jesse Tannehill, Rube Waddell
• 3000 hits: Willie Keeler
• 2500 hits: Fred Clarke
• 1000 runs: Roy Thomas, Jimmy Sheckard

HOF inductees

Dan Brouthers, Jim O’Rourke

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Philadelphia Athletics (97-56)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Chicago Cubs (103-50)
• WORLD SERIES: Athletics 4-2 (1st title)
• WS MVP: Harry Davis

Awards

• AL MVP: Eddie Collins
• NL MVP: Frank Schulte
• AL CYA: Ed Walsh [3]
• NL CYA: Mordecai Brown
• AL ROY: Frank Baker
• NL ROY: Dots Miller

Leaders




New season records

• Eddie Collins 10.90 bWAR
• Russ Ford 12 SV

Milestones

• 200 wins: Christy Mathewson, Rube Waddell
• 3000 hits: Willie Keeler
• 2500 hits: Fred Clarke
• 2000 hits: Bobby Wallace
• 1000 RBI: Bobby Wallace

HOF inductees

Dan Brouthers, Jim O’Rourke, Gus Weyhing

[luckymann]

• 1909 marked the third straight time the Tigers had made it to the World Series, only to come up short. They make it to the playoffs in three of the 1909 sims but lose all three, and remain winless in all six sims.
• Bob Bescher led the league in SB four times, with 81 in 1911 being his highest total.
• Johnny Lush never led the league in ERA.
• Ty Cobb one the AL Triple Crown in 1909. Amazingly, he never hit for the cycle in his career. Neither did Bill Hinchman.
• Honus Wagner went close a couple times but never won a Triple Crown.
• Cy Morgan never threw a no-no.
• Russ Ford led the league in saves once, with 6 in 1914.

[Brad K]

I was thinking about your comment Maris hit 62 in 62 in a game with ratings based on development only. And what came to mind is what is the basis of development?

We don't see Dave Kingman as a singles hitting batting champ, or Vic Davalillo as the HR champ, so development only has to have some basis in what the player actually did.

So I don't see any surprise with Maris hitting 62 in 62 even though with recalc using real stats that's nearly impossible. It may be we're more likely to see peak performances that match real life with dev only than with real stats.

It would be enlightening to examine your dev tests closely for evidence of this.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

I was thinking about your comment Maris hit 62 in 62 in a game with ratings based on development only. And what came to mind is what is the basis of development?

We don't see Dave Kingman as a singles hitting batting champ, or Vic Davalillo as the HR champ, so development only has to have some basis in what the player actually did.

So I don't see any surprise with Maris hitting 62 in 62 even though with recalc using real stats that's nearly impossible. It may be we're more likely to see peak performances that match real life with dev only than with real stats.

It would be enlightening to examine your dev tests closely for evidence of this.

Unfortunately those sims have gone to God. Let's hope we see something similar in the GE for you to deep dive into.

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Boston Red Sox (92-61)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Chicago Cubs (95-59)
• WORLD SERIES: Red Sox 4-3 (2nd title)
• WS MVP: Harry Hooper

Awards

• AL MVP: Tris Speaker
• NL MVP: Fred Beck
• AL CYA: Walter Johnson
• NL CYA: Christy Mathewson [2]
• AL ROY: Russ Ford
• NL ROY: Zack Wheat

Leaders




New career records

• Bill Dahlen 42 SF

New season records

• Jake Stahl 139 batter strikeouts
• Walter Johnson 16.55 pWAR
• Sam Crawford 12 SF

Milestones

• 2500 hits: Fred Clarke
• 2000 hits: Bobby Wallace
• 1000 RBI: Bobby Wallace
• 1500 runs: Fred Clarke
• 1000 runs: Jimmy Sheckard

HOF inductees

Jesse Burkett, Gus Weyhing


Other points of note

• Cycle: Frank Schulte
• No-hitters: Bugs Raymond, Eddie Cicotte

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Boston Red Sox (99-54)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Pittsburgh (94-51)
• WORLD SERIES: Red Sox 4-3 (2nd title)
• WS MVP: Harry Hooper

Awards

• AL MVP: Ty Cobb [2]
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner [5]
• AL CYA: Walter Johnson
• NL CYA: Christy Mathewson
• AL ROY: Duffy Lewis
• NL ROY: Jake Daubert

Leaders




Milestones

• 500 wins: Cy Young
• 250 wins: Vic Willis
• 200 wins: Jack Powell, Eddie Plank
• 3000 hits: Willie Keeler
• 2500 hits: Fred Clarke
• 2000 hits: Bobby Wallace
• 1000 RBI: Bobby Wallace
• 1500 runs: Fred Clarke
• 1000 runs: Jimmy Sheckard

HOF inductees

Jesse Burkett


Other points of note

• 31-game hit streak: Harry Lord

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Boston Red Sox (103-50)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Pittsburgh (88-65)
• WORLD SERIES: Red Sox 4-2 (2nd title)
• WS MVP: Jake Stahl

Awards

• AL MVP: Tris Speaker [2]
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner [5]
• AL CYA: Walter Johnson
• NL CYA: Christy Mathewson [3]
• AL ROY: Duffy Lewis
• NL ROY: Zack Wheat

Leaders




New season records

• Johnny Kling, Honus Wagner 21 IBB

Milestones

• 500 wins: Cy Young
• 2500 hits: Fred Clarke
• 2000 hits: Bobby Wallace
• 1000 RBI: Fred Clarke, Bobby Wallace
• 1500 runs: Fred Clarke
• 1000 runs: Jimmy Sheckard

HOF inductees

Jesse Burkett

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Philadelphia Athletics (93-57)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Chicago Cubs (88-66)
• WORLD SERIES: A’s 4-1 (1st title)
• WS MVP: Charles Bender

Awards

• AL MVP: Eddie Collins
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner [5]
• AL CYA: Walter Johnson
• NL CYA: Mordecai Brown [2]
• AL ROY: Willie Mitchell (a rarity – a pitcher winning)
• NL ROY: Doc Miller

Leaders




New season records

• Eddie Collins 52 CS
• Bill Burns 11 SV

Milestones

• 200 wins: Rube Waddell
• 2500 hits: Fred Clarke, Nap Lajoie, Honus Wagner
• 2000 hits: Bobby Wallace
• 1000 RBI: Bobby Wallace
• 1000 runs: Jimmy Sheckard, Roy Thomas

HOF inductees

Jesse Burkett


Other points of note

• 6-hit game: Amby McConnell
• No-hitter: Christy Mathewson
• 30-game hit streak: Harry Lord

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Philadelphia Athletics (104-46) – new AL record for wins
• NL CHAMPIONS: Chicago Cubs (96-58)
• WORLD SERIES: A’s 4-3 (1st title)
• WS MVP: Charles Bender

Awards

• AL MVP: Eddie Collins [2]
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner [3]
• AL CYA: Charles Bender
• NL CYA: Mordecai Brown
• AL ROY: Bert Daniels
• NL ROY: Zack Wheat

Leaders




New season records

• Eddie Collins 13.67 bWAR

Milestones

• 200 wins: Jack Powell
• 2500 hits: Fred Clarke
• 2000 hits: Bobby Wallace
• 1000 RBI: Bobby Wallace, Fred Clarke
• 1500 runs: Fred Clarke

HOF inductees

Jesse Burkett


Other points of note

• Hit 400+: Eddie Collins
• 6-hit game: Dick Hoblitzell
• Cycle: Bris Lord
• No-hitters: Jack Pfiester, Vic Willis, Orval Overall

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Philadelphia Athletics (91-59)
• NL CHAMPIONS: New York Giants (91-63)
• WORLD SERIES: A’s 4-0 (2nd title)
• WS MVP: Charles Bender

Awards

• AL MVP: Tris Speaker
• NL MVP: Larry Doyle
• AL CYA: Walter Johnson
• NL CYA: Christy Mathewson [2]
• AL ROY: Bert Daniels
• NL ROY: Doc Miller

Leaders




New career records

• Sam Leever 21 SV

New season records

• Clyde Milan 49 CS
• Miller Huggins 158 BB
• George McBride 130 SO
• Tris Speaker 11.66 bWAR
• Sam Leever 12 SV

Milestones

• 200 wins: Eddie Plank
• 1000 runs: Jimmy Sheckard

HOF inductees

Jesse Burkett, George Van Haltren


Other points of note

• Cycle: Harry Steinfeldt
• No-hitters: Fred Beebe, Jack Coombs

[luckymann]

• 1910 is widely remembered for the batting title controversy involving Nap Lajoie, Ty Cobb and a Chalmers 30 automobile. On the field, the 102-game winning A’s easily account for the 104-game winning Cubs in the World Series.
• Eddie Cicotte threw a no-no in 1917, as did Vic Willis in 1899. Matty threw two, in 1901 and ’05. Bugs Raymond, Jack Pfiester, Fred Beebe, Jack Coombs and Orvie Overall never did.
• Frank “Wildfire” Schulte never hit for the cycle, neither did Bris Lord nor Harry Steinfeldt.
• Gus Weyhing and George Van Haltren are not HOFers.
• Jack Meyers did lead the league with a 441 OBP in 1912 but never won a batting title.
• While Jake Daubert’s 12 HR in r5x2 match his career high (in 1922), he never led the league in this category.
• The 1910 Red Sox, who win all three of the recalc sims, only finished 4th – 21 games behind the A’s – IRL.
• Hal Chase won just the one batting title in his career, with a 339 mark in 1916. Doc Miller, who only played 5 seasons IRL, led the league with 192 hits in 1911 but never in BA. Nor did he ever reach double-figures in HR, with 7 his highest in 1911.
• Cocky Collins’ highest seasonal BA was 372 in 1920.
• Fred Beck led the league IRL in 1910 with 10 HR.
• “Sleepy” Bill Burns – later, the intermediary in the Black Sox scandal – only had 2 saves his entire career.
• Sam Leever (retrospectively, as they weren’t an official stat for a while after that) led the league with 3 SV in 1899, and this was his highest total in a season.