Alternative Universe Avs (NHL w/ fictional players)

[BirdWatcher]

While I don't want to over-react to one month, November felt like a month of progress for the Avalanche and possibly a turning point in the rebuild.




Certainly the early results from the trade to send away veteran Goalie Andriy Polischuk have been good as young Loren Sweeney, given the chance to play the lion's share of the games, has risen to the occasion.

The big 3 (LaFreniere, Watts, Nelson) continue to lead the team among skaters and 3rd line C Lance Williams quietly continues to be one of our better scorers.

The St. Louis Blues remain the best team in the Central, but the Avs are right up there, admittedly having played a few more games than most teams and in a weak division. Vancouver is once again a force in the Western Conference and the Arizona Coyotes, having made the playoffs for the first time last season (first time in this save), continue their rise.
The two New York teams are leading the Metropolitan Division and Detroit continues to be the best in the Atlantic.

[BirdWatcher]

A month that got off to a good start ending on a bit of a sour note, as the Avalanche lost 5 of their last 6 game in 2025.




Now that the team is being much more stingy about allowing goals they also aren't scoring as many.

Not much has changed in terms of who is playing well- other than Goalies the best 3 average Game Ratings belong to Travis LaFreniere (77), Matthew Watts (73), and James Nelson (70). We should probably mention that Ty Moyers, in his 2nd NHL season, has played in 41 games thus far and has a GR of 67, which is only behind the Big 3 and veteran Aleksandr Dugin among forwards. (The best GR among defencemen is for Joni Bjorkqvist, at 69.)

[BirdWatcher]

After what was a pretty good month for the Avs, they still found themselves slipping in the standings, with the teams around them also playing well at present. On the plus side, the Avs have played fewer games than any other team in their division thus far, and fewer than most teams in the NHL.




If the season ended today, the Avs would just barely be clinging to the second Wild Card spot.
It was a more injury-marred month for the team and just after we talked up Ty Moyers at the end of December he went down with a serious shoulder impingement on January 1st and is just now recovering and should be playing again soon. This was the most serious of a series of injuries that sidelined several players, mostly forwards, including veteran LW Brian Hughes, young star RW Matthew Watts, and LW Austin Foreman, who is currently on the Injured List and not expected back for another week or two.



Travis LaFreniere continues to show why he was the top prospect in the NHL just a few years ago:




Not that I think it has any real significance, but our AHL affiliate, as you can see above, is killing it this year.

[BirdWatcher]

I'll admit that this is starting to get a bit frustrating. If the Avs were just truly bad I would know that my plan wasn't working and that I needed to try something else. But it feels like we are always just on the brink of being a very competitive team. We just can't quite get over the hump. And so I'm not sure whether to basically stay the course or to tear it down and start over.





The Goalie situation at least does seem to have settled into a good groove now and this month we were able to extend both our starter, Loren Sweeney, who is turning into one of the best Goalies in the NHL (2nd in GSAA this year at 22.69) and backup J.T. Soronzonbold, who hasn't been very successful in his 7 games played but has good potential.


And our young first forward line is working out as planned, with James Nelson at #4 among Centres on the Positional Ranking lists (hey, wait, it's spelled Center on here?), and LW Travis LaFreniere and RW Matthew Watts playing even better than Nelson this season.



Some of our weakest players this season have been aging, veteran former stars Brian Hughes and Sherwood Sharp.

This month we also signed C James Nelson to an extension, giving him exactly what he asked for which was 4 years at just under $5.6 million a year, which was less than we expected to have to pay our biggest star. Loren Sweeney inked a 5-year, $3.3 million per contract. Backup Goalie J.T. Soronzonbold was signed to a 3-year $770K extension. Joni Bjorkqvist, who has been our best defenceman, was extended for 3 years at just under $3.8 million per year.
And the surprisingly productive LW Ken Rechlicz agreed to a 5-year, roughly $3.75 million per year deal. And C Lance Williams re-upped for 3 years at $2.8 million per.




The financial picture is still pretty good- the Avs have the 31st lowest player payroll this year and we will have veteran Brian Hughes and his $7.4 million contract off the books next year.
Decisions still need to be made regarding C Bobby Newsome and RW Bill Reynolds, neither of whom have been very good this season.

[BirdWatcher]

This team is driving me crazy!
Heading into the final day of the regular season we were still clinging to the final playoff slot in the Western Conference (albeit mostly due to being in a weak division), in spite of having fallen apart in our final 3 games, dropping all 3 at home, being shutout in 2 of them.



But with our season over we needed the surging Winnipeg Jets to lose against the San Jose Sharks on the road. Naturally, the Jets got the 3-1 win and took our playoff slot and for the third straight year we are on the outside looking in for the post-season.





As happens every season, we led the NHL in both giveaways and takeways, and by an incredible (and unrealistic) margin. Given what I've seen posted here by other players, I suspect that there is a bug in the program that is inflating human-run teams stats in this respect for some reason. I'm not saying I have proof of this, please don't misunderstand, but it does strike me as very suspicious and I am growing pretty convinced that something unintended is happening in the program. (The above image shows the distance between us and our nearest competitors in the category of takeaways (840 to 498), while our 634 giveaways was also astronomically higher than our nearest competitor- who had 470 giveaways.)

[BirdWatcher]

The Cup returns to Canada after residing in the Windy City for one year, as the underdog Vancouver Canucks, who held the 1st Wild Card slot in the Western Conference, very nearly swept their way through the playoffs, losing just 1 game in the Western Conference Finals to the top-seeded St. Louis Blues, and then 1 game in the Stanley Cup Finals against the President's Cup winners, the Detroit Red Wings.

[jumpSeat]

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher

The Cup returns to Canada...

This may be the closest thing to a Canucks Cup win in my lifetime, so I'm definitely going to savor this virtual moment!

[BirdWatcher]

Originally Posted by jumpSeat

This may be the closest thing to a Canucks Cup win in my lifetime, so I'm definitely going to savor this virtual moment!

Glad at least someone is happy with the results of this past season and especially the Stanley Cup playoffs.

These fictional Canucks have fared pretty well in this save thus far:

[BirdWatcher]

(Returning after long absence with apologies- mostly just was totally focused on my OOTP universe but now in the offseason there and felt like getting back to this and see if my youth movement will start to pay off.)

When we left off the calendar was just about to flip over to July of 2026. My plan had been to let 23-year old centre Bobby Newsome become a free agent, joining veteran winger Brian Hughes and right winger Bill Reynolds, as players we were willing to part with. But I had a last minute change of heart and worked out a contract extension with Newsome.



Newsome has been an inconsistent performer and is also injury prone, but on a team that can sometimes get pushed around a bit (we aren't terribly physical) he is one of our stronger players and profiles best as a power forward or grinder while also having some agitator traits. He was also willing to sign to a fairly modest contract so it seemed to make sense.

Having lost only a few significant members of last season's roster (the aging and no longer effective Hughes and the underachieving Reynolds), the Av's weren't active in the free agency market. We did however identify a small handful of younger players with potential who we were able to sign to 2-way contracts. Primary among them defenceman Marcus Sharp, who looks like he has the potential to become a gifted defensive defenceman, sturdy defenceman Eric Zanatta, who has strong two-way skills, and a few young forwards with moderate upside (22-year old winger Vicente Ibanez, 21-year old centre Louick Rocheleau, and 21-year old left winger John Van Roessel).

Speaking of young players with upside, the draft this summer was not apparently talent-rich, but the Av's feel like they did pretty well under the circumstances.
With the 11th pick in the first round the Av's chose 18-year old winger Braedan McPherson. McPherson was projected to be the first overall pick but for some reason fell to us at number 11. To be honest though, the Av's scouts weren't as sold on McPherson as many others and there was a strong disagreement in the front office about whether to chose him or to go with 19-year old right winger Pekka Kosonen out of Finland with our first pick. As it turned out McPherson was selected and Kosonen was still there for our second round pick so it was all moot in the end.




McPherson is currently considered the 5th best prospect in the NHL, 3rd best among forwards, while he is only considered the 11th best prospect in the Av's system according to our internal measures and rankings while Kosonen is ranked #3 among Av's prospects internally (with 2025 first round pick, right winger Kevin Gilbert ranked 1st and recent free agent acquisition defenceman Marcus Sharp ranked 2nd).



The Av's system is ranked 7th in the NHL in terms of prospects although that may be somewhat inflated by the high ranking of McPherson. Then again, whatever our scouts might think, the young winger is off to a tremendous start this season with the Erie Otters in the OHL, with 16 points and a Game Rating average of 81 over his 11 games played thus far. This is driven largely by an impressive average defensive Game Rating of 89.

[BirdWatcher]

So heading into the upcoming season, here is some idea of what expectations are around the league:




Colorado goalie Loren Sweeney has at times these past few seasons looked elite while at other times struggling but at age 22 and having already been in the league for parts of three seasons he is considered one of the most talented net minders in the NHL.


Let's take a look at positional rankings:





Again, Sweeney stands out as one of the best goalies in the league. The only other Av to make one of these lists is our 22-year old centre James Nelson, who is clearly emerging as one of the better two-way players in the game and is signed through 2030.

The Avalanche continue to be very young, with most of the veterans on the club in steep decline and likely to get less and less ice time, with the exception of 31-year old right winger Aleksandr Dugin, who remains a solid 2nd or 3rd line player. But the core of the team is built around players like 23-year old defenceman Josh Hishon, 21-year old defenceman Joni Bjorkqvist, 21-year old left winger Travis LaFreniere, 21-year old right winger Matthew Watts, along with the aforementioned Nelson, Sweeney, Newsome, etc.



Speaking of LaFreniere, he had probably the most impressive single game performance for the Avalanche this pre-season.



Now the question is, on the eve of the regular season, are the youngsters ready to take the next step and get the team back to the playoffs after a 3-year drought.
(Spoiler alert: after the first month of the season the answer seems to be, they just might be ready!)

[BirdWatcher]

I have made the mistake of getting overly optimistic because of a good first month of the season before so I'm trying to remain temperate with my enthusiasm, but this season is off to a good start.




Granted, the Av's continue to have some goal scoring issues and it is on the side of goal suppression that we are better. And special teams have been very good thus far and that might not be fully sustainable.

Still, we will take this start and hope to build upon it. The goal isn't necessarily finishing near the top of the standings this season. It is mostly just scratching out way back into the playoffs no matter what that takes.

Milo Holland, 23-year old second line winger, continues to progress well and is very possibly the most underrated player on the team. He is currently 2nd on the team in OGR at 74 (behind Matthew Watts and his impressive league-leading 78) and also has a solid 65 DGR. He is tied with centre James Nelson in points at 14, also just behind Watts with 15.
(Holland also just scored the OT goal that gave the Av's a 4-3 victory over L.A. on the first day of November.)

Both starting goalie Loren Sweeny and his 23-year old backup J.T. Soronzonbold have been good.
Sweeny has a GR of 83, a GAA of 2.31, GSAA of 6.35 and save percentage of .930. in 9 games played.
Soronzonbold has a GR of 71, a GAA of 2.61, GSAA of -1.73 (not so good), and save percentage of .898 in 6 games played.



The Calgary Flames, who were Stanley Cup champs two years in a row (2023 and 2024) and finished last season with 103 points, are off to another great start. The pre-season favorites, Chicago, are off to a mediocre start. In the East, Detroit, who accumulated 112 points last season, are also off to a very good start to this season. The Boston Bruins, on the other hand, are woeful.

As for the reigning NHL Champs, the Vancouver Canucks, the new season has been disappointing thus far.

[BirdWatcher]

Although they came back to earth somewhat, particularly during a rough 3-game stretch in the second week of November when they gave up 7 goals in Anaheim, 6 in Chicago, and 5 at home against San Jose in 3 straight losses, the Avalanche finish the month still in first place in the Central Division and tied for 2nd (with surging Vancouver) in the Western Conference.




I keep fully expecting a regression to the norm for the special teams play but if anything it was special teams play that gave the Avalanche another winning month, as we weren't really that good at even strength.

Rookie Garrett Van Hoof, the team's 7th round pick in 2025, has been a revelation and is one of the reasons for the great special teams play, as he is on the #1 power play line and also gets playing time on the PK. He was at his best in the Av's 6-3 victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins in the final game of the month. He and Milo Holland, continuing to have another strong season, have been vying for the majority of the play at left wing on the second forward line, and lately Van Hoof has more and more solidified his spot on that line.



Goalie Loren Sweeney had an excellent month too and is now 2nd in the NHL in GAA and 5th in both GSAA (10.29) and save percentage (.925).


Updated Standings:



Calgary remains the class of the Western Conference but the reigning Stanley Cup champs, Vancouver, are starting to catch up to them in the Pacific Division standings.
In the Central Division, the pre-season favorites, Chicago, continue to have a losing record while Colorado has a decent edge over Nashville.

Montreal has risen to the top of the Atlantic Division with Ottawa also now having jumped over Detroit in the standings. Boston continues to be the weakest team in the NHL.

Pittsburgh remains in first in the Metropolitan but their cross-state rivals in Philly have now dropped to 3rd place behind both of the New York teams.

[BirdWatcher]

The Avalanche didn't have a great month of December but fortunately for them the same was true for pretty much all of the teams in the top tier of the Western Conference standings and not only did the Avs remain in first place in the Central Division but also are closer to the top of the conference now than they were at the end of November. Then again, things have become so bunched up in the conference that they could easily slide down the conference standings as well if they have another flat month in January.





Matthew Watts, the Avs 21-year old first line right winger, continues to have a tremendous season, with still the best average game offensive rating at 79. But on the whole, it is defense and especially the penalty kill that is keeping Colorado competitive. Which is probably not a surprise as this is a team built around blue line strength and depth as well as one of the most talented goalies in the NHL in Loren Sweeney. Incidentally, the Avs best players in terms of average defensive game ratings are left defenceman Joni Bjorkqvist and right defenceman Josh Hishon, both at 74, while top centre James Nelson has a 73 DGR.
On the other hand, 23-year old left winger Ken Rechlicz, who had shown steady improvement the last two seasons, has not played very well on either side of the ice this season thus far. And after Nelson the Avs are not playing well at centre, although Ty Moyers, who previously had primarily played right wing but transitioned to centre early this season, has been fairly solid, especially on the attack.


An updated look at the standings:

[BirdWatcher]

Well, this isn't a very happy way to head into the All-Star break. Not only did the Avs absolutely get taken apart by the visiting New York Rangers with goalie Loren Sweeney having probably his worst game of the season. It didn't help that left defenceman Joni Bjorkqvist was hampered by groin tightness and not at his best. But then to add worse injury to minor injury and insult, the Avs lose their other top-line defenceman Josh Hishon to a sprained ankle suffered in an on-ice collision in this painful loss. Hishon is expected to be out for at least a month. Talented young prospect Marcus Sharp takes his place on the active roster.

[BirdWatcher]

Although the month of January 2027 started with some ominous signs for the Avalanche, it ends with the team in the top spot of the Western Conference standings.





Although they were beaten by the New York Rangers on both ends of the All-Star break, they then won 5 straight games and 7 of their final 8 of the month. The team's lone All-Star, right winger Matthew Watts, continues to have a break-out season. He and line mate James Nelson have helped the team to start to make some progress in goal scoring although the strength of the team remains shot suppression and goal suppression, with the penalty killing still the NHL's best.

The Avalanche did claim a player on waivers this month: 23-year old defenceman Emil Beck-Friis, previously of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Beck-Friis gives the Avs another playmaker on the blue line and does have a couple of goals scored and a couple of assists in his first 6 games with the team.



Around the league:



The Western Conference continues to be defined by parity with very few teams, if any, having almost no hopes to reach the playoffs. Oddly, the team that was widely predicted to be the Stanley Cup favorites, the Chicago Blackhawks, find themselves at the very bottom of the conference standings entering February.

The standings are much more spread out in the Eastern Conference, with teams like Montreal, Ottawa, the New York Rangers, and Detroit all nearly assured playoff slots while teams like Buffalo, Boston, and Carolina all needing to look forward to next season.

[BirdWatcher]

With some larger contracts coming off the books for next year- in particular aging defenceman Sherwood Sharp's $10.2M contract, as well as those of two other veteran defencemen with declining roles on the team (Edgar Maldonado, $6.4M, and Luke Bosum, $4.5M) Avalanche management has begun to sort out which of their younger players who are upcoming free agents to extend.
That process naturally began with rising start right winger Matthew Watts, who has now agreed to a 3-year contract extension which will pay him approximately $7M per year deal, which will make him the second highest player on the team after defenceman Michal Lezak who will make $7.1 next season and is signed through 2031.
The Avs also inked a new deal with Watt's line mate, left winger Travis LaFreniere, who will be with the team at least 2 more seasons, making approx. $6.5M per year. The 21-year old LaFreniere hasn't turned into the goal scorer anticipated yet but still has elite potential and has very good chemistry with first line centre James Nelson.
Offensive-minded defenceman Jiri Rehounek was also extended, getting a 4-year deal at roughly $3.5M per season.





There are some tough decisions ahead still. The biggest decision involves the currently injured star defenceman Josh Hishon. The 23-year old Hishon is considered the teams best defenceman and they would love to keep him but given that he already signed one extension and currently makes $4.3M, he may be looking for a big pay day. On the other hand, there is a sense that he isn't greedy and although he is currently injured he doesn't profile as being particularly injury-prone.
Other somewhat significant members of the team who could be free agents at the end of the season are centre's Clark St. Croix and Ty Moyers as well as the recently acquired defenceman Emil Beck-Friis.

[BirdWatcher]

Negotiations with star defenceman Josh Hishon were a bit more complicated than hoped and he did in fact demand more than we were hoping. He was also determined to sign only for 2 years although we tried to entice him to sign for 4 years and then 3 and finally we had to succumb to his wishes though we were able to talk him down a bit from his annual salary requests.



This signing pretty much guarantees that the team won't be bringing back Emil Beck-Friis and likely also not centre's Clark St. Croix or Ty Moyers unless they can work out a very reasonable contract with one of those two.
On the plus side, Aymeric Blais already projects as being above St. Croix (and Lance Williams) on the centre depth chart so he will likely finally get his shot at the NHL next season.

[BirdWatcher]

With 15 regular season games left, the chances of the Avalanche at least making the playoffs this year seem quite good, with the team currently leading the Western Conference still, though admittedly with the team having played a few more games than their nearest competitors.
Finishing at the top of the standings is far from a certainty but even in the very competitive Western Conference it would take a pretty epic collapse for the Avs not to at least earn a playoff berth.





The young first forward line of Matthew Watts, James Nelson, and Travis LaFreniere continues to develop into a dominant force. And quietly second line left winger Milo Holland is having another strong season.
Of course, the real strength of the team remains defense and special teams play.

With centre Bobby Newsome now on the Injury Reserve list 21-year old forward Aymeric Blais is getting his first taste of the NHL.

Updated NHL Standings:



Things remain tight of course in the Western Conference with teams like the Winnipeg Jets, Vegas Golden Knights, and Edmonton Oilers currently outside playoff position but with every chance to work their way into playoff slots before the season ends.

The Eastern Conference continues to be dominated by Montreal, Ottawa, and the New York Rangers, with the Detroit Red Wings also still quite good. Carolina has now dropped below Buffalo and Boston at the bottom of the standings.

[BirdWatcher]

February was an odd month for the Avalanche, as although they won quite a bit more than they lost, they were also absolutely humiliated a few times, most notably in a 9-1 demolition at the hands of the Ottawa Senators.





But with six regular season games left it seems almost a sure thing that the Avs will make the playoffs this season and break their three-year drought. The current points total of 95 that the team has amassed is by far their best number since their 100 point 2022-2023 season.

The only big news in terms of transactions is that the Avs were able to agree to a deal with centre Ty Moyers who agreed to a reasonable 3-year deal at roughly $2.6M per season. With Aymeric Blais having played pretty well in his first go-round with the team while Bobby Newsome was injured, it is clear that this leaves Clark St. Croix as the odd man out and we will be saying goodbye to him at the end of the season.

While nothing can be (or should be) taken for granted, the Avs do have a favorable schedule for the last 6 days, playing against 3 last place teams (Carolina, Arizona, and Chicago) , and only 1 of them on the road (although Chicago is a last place team not to be taken lightly) as well as a few nearly last place teams (Boston, at Boston, and the New York Islanders, the lesser NY team, in Denver). The toughest game left is against the 100 point, best in the Western Conference at this point Calgary Flames in Calgary.

The current standings:

[BirdWatcher]

The month of April got off to a good start for the Avalanche as they travelled to Carolina and dominated the Hurricanes, as they should a very bad last place team.




Milo Holland, who doesn't often get much press for his steady contributions, got the hat trick in the win.


On the other hand, our #1 defenceman Josh Hishon has tweaked his hamstring and is likely to not be able to suit up for about a week. At least it shouldn't be a problem for the playoffs, assuming the team makes it to the post-season.