October 29, 2027: World Series Game 2
 

Another bullpen nightmare...

https://i.imgur.com/VZn2Uwo.png

For 7 innings it looked like the Rays would be evening up the World Series. A strong outing from rookie Hagen Smith (10 Ks in 5 IP) and two clean innings from Ryan Pepiot combined with a big 2-run homer from Adley Rutschman put Tampa Bay in a strong position but it all fell apart in the 8th. Devin Williams put two men on with one out and then gave up consecutive infield singles to make it 4-3, and then Sam Hentges came in to face some lefties and made it worse, continuing his terrible postseason by allowing all 3 men on to score on a bases-loaded walk and 2-run single and by the time the dust settled it was a 7-4 Reds win. And while the offense did its part much better tonight, they once again grounded into three rally-killing double plays, including one after they got the leadoff man on in the 9th. So now they're in a deep, deep hole and will need Jeffrey Springs (and more importantly the bullpen for a change) to come up big in Game 3 in Cincinnati.

October 31, 2027: World Series Game 3
 

Back in it...

https://i.imgur.com/IYiDRyZ.png

This time the bullpen held, but just barely, as the Rays took Game 3 from Cincinnati 4-2 on a chilly, rainy miserable Halloween night in Cincinnati but they didn't care about the weather when it was over. Jeffrey Springs was brilliant once again in these playoffs and we decided not to mess around and brought Felix Bautista in for the two-inning save. The 8th was a breeze for him but the 9th not so much. He gave up a one-out double and then struck out the next man, but a walk and then a double made it 4-2 with the tying runs in scoring position. With Bautista now in the red at 32 pitches, I made the gamble to pull him and bring in soft-tossing lefty Richard Lovelady to face the lefty due up, but the Reds countered with a righty pinch-hitter, Ryan Jeffers. Luckily Lovelady got him to fly to left and that was the ballgame. Meanwhile on the hitting side our former Orioles contingent got the job done with Heston Kjerstad (who drove in the first run) hitting a tie-breaking solo homer in the 7th and Jordan Westburg delivering a 2-run double later in the inning which proved to be the winning margin. Taj Bradley will be looking to turn his postseason fortunes around with a good start tomorrow to try and get the Rays even.

November 1, 2027: World Series Game 4
 

Backs to the wall...

https://i.imgur.com/KCaYl5k.png

The Rays have no more margin for error as they were pounded 12-3 by Cincinnati in Game 4 and trail 1-3 in the World Series. Things got off to a promising start on homers from Junior Caminero and Heston Kjerstad which gave them a 3-1 lead in the top of the 2nd, but Taj Bradley finished off a nightmare postseason by giving up 4 runs by the 2nd and was given an early hook. Ryan Pepiot, so good in his previous appearances, then gave up a pair of solo homers in the 3rd as the game got away from the Rays. And after starting as shakily as Bradley, Cincinnati's Tajuan Walker settled in to shut down Tampa Bay bats thereafter and that was that. Now on tap is a rematch of the epic Game 1 pitchers' duel between Shane McClanahan and Max Fried, and the Rays will have to hope they get the edge this time as that game could have been a "sliding doors" type moment had they pulled it out.

November 2, 2027: World Series Game 5
 

A pathetic end to a pathetic series performance...

https://i.imgur.com/VNWAVGi.png

One of these teams won 101 games during the regular season and other won 89, and by watching this World Series you'd certainly have thought it was Cincinnati with the 101 if you didn't know better. The Rays were deserted by their bullpen and their bats in these 5 games, rendering their excellent starting pitching (outside of Bradley) largely moot. Today was more of the same as once again they got a first-inning run off Max Fried and once again they got absolutely zero thereafter. And this time I don't think anyone had the Reds getting 3 runs on 6 hits in the first inning off Shane McClanahan on their bingo card. To his credit Mac shut down Cincinnati after that but the bats had no answer and then the failpen failed again, giving up 3 more runs to put the game out of reach. So again a dominant regular season fails to yield a championship and the Rays are now 0-3 all-time in the World Series, having won a grand total of 4 games across those three appearances. And it's going to be extremely difficult to get back to this stage next year as the likes of McClanahan, Adley Rutschman, and Jeffrey Springs are all free agents - this was the all-in year and they came up short.

2027-28 Offseason: State of the Team
 

Well any season that ends in the World Series can't be viewed as a disappointment but our sad showing in the Fall Classic did put a damper on things. And as alluded to in the previous post we're going to lose a few key players who are going to be hard to replace but we should still have a solid team for 2028.

The first order of business is that Stu Sternberg has given us a payroll of only $110M so that rules out trying to re-sign any of the big three of Adley Rutschman, Shane McClanahan and Jeffrey Springs. We'll make qualifying offers to the first two and net a couple of high draft picks and not chance it with Springs in case he takes it.

This is how the current squad shakes out salary-wise for next season (projected):

https://i.imgur.com/Vt3x2pm.png

You might notice Jarred Kelenic there - we claimed him on waivers during the postseason from Atlanta as well as veteran lefty reliever Matt Gage (who for some reason doesn't show here even though I had to make him about a $1.5M arbitration offer). I'm not sure what I'm going to do with Kelenic since all the OFs return, so stay tuned. This group - if all kept - would add up to $101M giving us very little room to maneuver.

The position-by-position outlook:

C: Obviously the big hole here with Rutschman going free agent. Luis Campusano excelled as his backup and now will get the chance to be the man. Yainer Diaz is the other catcher on the roster but really hasn't caught the last two seasons and I might be moving him. If that happens then look for someone like Dominic Keegan or Cade Hunter, who have toiled for Durham the last several years, to get a chance provided we don't grab up a veteran backup.

Really there's no need to go the rest of way among position players as we'll return the rest of the lineup: Isaac (1B), Westburg (2B), C.Williams (SS), Caminero (3B), Morel (LF), P.Meadows (CF), J.Lowe (RF) and the Kjerstad/Mead platoon (DH).

That leaves the bench where we'll have the catcher, one of Kjerstad/Mead, and for now there's Brock Jones and Brayden Taylor. Ryan Cermak could nose in for a backup OF/DH against lefties role after hitting 55 HR at Durham last year.

Rotation: Obviously a big hit here with McClanahan and Springs leaving. This makes Hagen Smith the de facto ace, followed by Taj Bradley, Robert Gasser, and in a return to the rotation, Ryan Pepiot. We'll still need a fifth starter and that's where it gets tricky. We can always bring back old friend Zack Littell and guys we've been through before like Randy Vasquez and Reese Olsen (we'd have to sign them to MLB contracts since they'll be MiLB free agents). None of those choices seems terribly appealing so dealing for a starter is the goal.

Bullpen: Setup guy Devin Williams and lefty Sam Hentges are also free agents so we'll have a couple of holes to fill there too. Otherwise Bautista, Lovelady, Maldonado, Robertson, M.Rodriguez and Contreras return and rookies like Keyshawn Askew and Jacob Misiorowski are possibilities but we probably need to add at least one reliever as well.

Prospects: We don't really have any of note that are on the verge. Leadoff-type Luis Lara is probably MLB-ready but we have a fairly deep OF. Two-way 2026 first-round pick Kyle Johnson might be ready to help in the second half.

So the goals are simple:

1) find a starting pitcher (or two)
2) add a bullpen arm (or two)
3) maybe see what kind of backup Cs are available late in free agency

2027-28 Offseason: Part 1
 

Retirements:

Notables: Freddie Freeman (Atlanta retired #5), Jose Altuve (Houston retired #27), Madison Bumgarner, Nick Castellanos, Tim Anderson, Justin Turner, Starling Marte, Robbie Ray, Josh Bell, Kyle Schwarber.

Former Rays: Alex Cobb, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Travis d'Arnaud.

November 4: Well we traded for a starting pitcher:

https://i.imgur.com/Z572GfS.png

Diaz had never really caught fire for us (and spent most of 2026 at AAA) like he did in Houston as a heavy-hitting catcher, and his defense was always suspect anyway so we used him mostly as a DH against lefties. So I was thrilled to be offered Horton for him. The former first-round pick of the Cubs turned in a very solid 2027, going 11-12, 4.67 with 185 whiffs in 185 IP and earned a decent 2.9 WAR. He'll make a very good 4th/5th starter for us. Horton is arb-eligible this winter and will get about $3.1M which is roughly what Diaz would have cost but a better allocation of money.

November 6: An interesting trade by division rivals Baltimore and New York as the Yankees sent Spencer Jones to the Orioles for Coby Mayo. Jones hit 33 HR with a .244 BA in his first full season while Mayo has hit 30, 28 and 29 homers the last three seasons, while hitting .230-.245 so superficially at least they're very similar.

November 9: The big news is that we signed a contract extension with Parker Meadows. The gold glove-caliber CF (+11.5 ZR last year) is getting a 4/18 deal coming off a season he earned 2.5 WAR despite playing only about 2/3 of the time. Meanwhile we settled all of our arbitration cases except for Caminero, Gasser and Mead, who wanted long-term contracts I wasn't prepared to give - in the case of Caminero, just yet, and not at all for the other two.

Awards Season:

Gold Glove: We had two winners, unfortunately they're guys who are leaving us as McClanahan (P) and Rutschman (C) were honored.

Reliever of the Year: Felix Bautista wuz robbed. Despite a 13-win, 29-save, 1.57-ERA, 3.5-WAR season he finished a distant second to Detroit's Ben Joyce who had 12 wins, 38 saves, and a 1.95 ERA and 2.8 WAR. Guess those extra saves made the difference. In the NL the Giants' Taylor Clarke got 29 of 30 first-place votes thanks to a 36-save, 2.49 ERA season.

Silver Slugger: There were three Rays winners: Rutschman (C), Isaac (1B) and Caminero (3B). Former Ray Jonny DeLuca won the AL CF award with Cleveland after a 33-homer season that came out of nowhere, guess we lost the Sam Hentges trade with them.

Rookie of the Year: Another stunner as Houston OF Luis Baez (.297-28-77, 3.3 WAR) took the award over Baltimore's 29-year-old Cuban import SP Luis Orta, who led the AL with 7.0 pitcher WAR after going 18-11, 3.56 and our Hagen Smith, who merely went 17-6, 2.90 with 4.8 WAR. Baez took 19 first-place votes to 9 and 2 for Orta and Smith, a head-scratcher. The NL winner was Arizona's Yosy Galan, who took 29 of 30 first-place votes after hitting .254-44-117.

Cy Young: A hell of a going-away year for Mac:

https://i.imgur.com/FThOToJ.png


A bit surprised Orta didn't get a few first-place votes, but pitcher WAR is not something heavily weighted by OOTP come awards time. Smith finished fourth. In the NL Philly's Andrew Painter won rather convincingly over Miami's Eury Perez (24-3, 191-123) thanks to a 14-5, 2.65 year.

MVP: Baltimore's Jackson Holliday was one vote shy of unanimous after his 9.2 WAR season that saw him hit .318-29-85 and play Gold Glove D. Caminero finished third and got the other first place vote (it wasn't mine). Jackson Chourio was unanimous in the NL as the Milwaukee superstar earned 9.4 WAR with a .348-41-145 mega-season.

November 25: We lost our three arbitration cases and will have to pay a total of $1.6M more than hoped. Rutschman and McClanahan unsurprisingly rejected the qualifying offer, so draft picks here we come. So right now our payroll sits at an even $100M, meaning we have a max of $10M to add so it's going to have to be dollar in, dollar out if we make any moves.

December 1: The Dodgers traded P Dustin May to the Rockies, and vagabond veteran closer Liam Hendriks went in a deal from Washington to St. Louis, making it 4 teams in 4 years for the 38-year-old despite racking up 117 saves in the last three seasons.

December 5: The first of our big three free agents found a new home as Jeffrey Springs signed a 3/71 deal with the Dodgers. Also veteran Jacob deGrom moved across the state from the Dallas area to Houston, joining the Astros on a big 2/59 contract. Washington also dealt longtime IF CJ Abrams to Philadelphia.

December 9: NL Reliever of the Year Taylor Clarke was dealt by San Francisco to Detroit for a prospect.

December 10: Big news out of New York as the Yankees dealt Gerrit Cole, entering the last year of his mega-contract, to Milwaukee for a couple of prospects. The 37-year-old Cole is coming off a 13-11, 4.01 season.

December 13: It was a big free agent day as our top two guys from last year signed on the dotted line. First Adley Rutschman signed a massive 7/262 deal ($37+M/yr) with St. Louis and then Shane McClanahan joined Jeffrey Springs in Tinseltown thanks to a 6/219 contract the Dodgers gave him ($33M/yr). We'll have fun at next year's draft with 2 1st-round comp picks.

December 15: Speaking of the draft the Cubs were the big lottery winners, moving up from 7th to grab the first pick.

December 22: The Yankees acquired their Gerrit Cole replacement, trading for San Francisco vet Logan Webb, and signed another former Giant, OF Jung-hoo Lee to a 4/54 deal.

December 23: Added C Dominic Keegan and P Spencer Schwellenbach to the 40-man roster. Keegan is penciled in as our backup catcher, and Schwellenbach has an outside chance of joining the staff.

December 24: Nothing like a holiday Rule 5 Draft. It was very active and there were a fair number of "name" players taken, so here are the first two rounds (Toronto ended up taking 5 guys):

https://i.imgur.com/XMbOWiF.png

As you can see we lost Brendan McKay (again) but picked up Jackson Baumeister, who probably won't make our club but we'll take a look at him in spring training.

December 28: This time we picked up a guy who should definitely make our team, signing veteran lefty reliever Tanner Scott to a 1-year, $1.8M deal. He'll replace the departed Sam Hentges as our top left-handed option in the pen. We also signed a professional IFA to a minor-league deal, 33-year-old Taiwanese OF Xing-Peng Fan, who rates 65 contact but only 35 power and can play a 60 RF. He'll give us depth at Durham.

December 30: The Phillies signed OF Seiya Suzuki to a 4/58 deal.

December 31: Former Rays 3B Isaac Paredes signed a big 7/131 deal with the Giants after doing his usual 25-HR, 85-RBI thing with the Cubs last year after we dealt him there last winter.

2027-28 Offseason: Part 2
 

January 3: Randy Arozarena gets a 2/16 deal with Seattle after playing with Detroit, the White Sox and Texas since we dealt him to the Tigers mid-2024.

January 11: Slugging OF Anthony Santander stays in the mid-Atlantic but this time with the Nationals on a 3/40 contract, coming off a 40-HR season in his one-year return to the Orioles.

January 15: It was reliever signing day as our Sam Hentges landed in Houston on a 1/10 deal and veteran closer Emmanuel Clase will pitch for Boston and get paid $8.2M for 1 season.

January 17: Another relief pitcher finds a new home - Andres Munoz joins the Yankees for 3/14.

January 18: Seattle dealt starter George Kirby to San Diego for 3 prospects including Dakota Jordan.

January 19: The Hall of Fame balloting is in:

https://i.imgur.com/QKRMkKT.png

Pujols (as expected) and Cano sail in on their first ballot and Yadi Molina comes awfully close. More close-but-no-cigar for CC, A-Rod and Beltran while Mauer seems to have stalled.

February 4: C Willson Contreras bagged a 3/42 deal with the White Sox.

February 19: We signed a trio of vets to minor league deals with invites to spring training: C Jonah Heim, OF Leody Taveras, and SP Juan Mercedes. Heim, a Rays property about 10 years ago, will likely become the backup C while Taveras is coming off a 3.8 WAR season with Oakland after playing elite defense in CF and hitting 13 HR with a .279 BA. He's a switch-hitter who fares better against lefties so he's got a shot at the roster as well. Mercedes is a starter who's put up solid numbers in AAA in the Mariners org and will give us some depth at Durham.

And so we head into spring training hoping to stay injury-free and still on the prowl for a bullpen arm.

2028 Opening Day Roster & Preseason Predictions
 

We made it through spring training mostly unscathed - veteran reliever Matt Gage is the only one starting the year on IL with a rotator cuff strain, and he should be back around the end of April.

So the opening day roster looks like this:

C-Campusano, Heim
1B-Isaac
2B-Westburg
SS-C.Williams
3B-Caminero
IF-Mead
LF-Morel
CF-P.Meadows
RF-J.Lowe
OF-Taveras, Cermak
DH-Kjerstad

Meadows will platoon with Tavares in CF and Kjerstad and either Mead or Cermak will platoon at DH.

SP-H.Smith, Bradley, Gasser, Pepiot, Horton
LR-Baumeister
MR-Contreras, M.Rodriguez, T.Scott, Robertson, Lovelady
SU-Maldonado
CL-F.Bautista

A look at these guys:

https://i.imgur.com/tD3GLZv.png

The preseason predictions are not very bullish on us at all:

https://i.imgur.com/uxhj8S7.png

At least Isaac and Caminero are predicted to rake again. Next up: The season opens with 4 in Seattle

March 30-April 2, 2028
 

March 30: at Seattle. The Opening Day box:

https://i.imgur.com/ktqWbQB.png

It was nice to see Smith pick up where he left off from his fantastic rookie season and he was extraordinarily efficient today.

March 31: at Seattle 5-4 W (10). WP-Bautista (1-0). S-Robertson (1). Starter-Bradley (6 3 2 2 3 6). Campusano's 4th hit of the game was a 2-run single in the 10th which was big because Seattle scored the ghost runner in the bottom of the inning. Bautista blew the save coming on early in the 8th after Tanner Scott had to leave two batters in with a minor injury, giving up a homer.

April 1: at Seattle 4-6 L. LP-Pepiot (0-1, 6 4 4 3 0 3). HR-Isaac (1), Caminero (1), Westburg (1). Homers from Isaac and Caminero gave the Rays an early 3-0 but Pepiot gave it all back and one more. He and Tampa Bay were done in by Julio Rodriguez, who drove in all 6 Seattle runs with a grand slam and a 2-run double. J-Rod had also homered in the first two games.

April 2: at Seattle 4-5 L. LP-Contreras (0-1). Starter-Horton (5 4 3 3 2 5, 3 HR). HR-J.Lowe (1), P.Meadows (1). Another early lead went by the wayside as 4-1 Rays became 5-4 Seattle. Horton looked good in his Rays debut before giving up solo homers #2 and 3 in the 5th and former Ray Brandon Lowe's 2-run homer in the 6th off Contreras was the difference as middle relief looks like it might be a problem for us this year. And of course J-Rod homered again, giving him 4 in the 4 games.

Team record: 2-2. Next week: We head down the coast to play 3 in San Francisco before traveling back to St. Pete to play a 3-game home-opening series against the Yankees.

No Players of the Week were named for the short season-opening week, but J-Rod probably would have gotten the nod in the AL for going 6-16 with 4 HR and 9 RBI against the Rays, while in the NL former Ray Isaac Paredes might have won after his 3-homer game for the Giants over the weekend and his 5-14, 4 HR, 8 RBI start with his new club.