Development fixed?
 

Hello!

Have not jumped in to this years version yet. Have seen reports that prospects develop too fast, is this fixed in the latest patch?

Thanks in advance!

Supposedly, yes.

Note: I say supposedly because I don't have first-hand knowledge. It is in the patch notes.

It still needs further adjustment, I think. I will try and post data when I get the chance. Hopefully others agree.

I had two saves going where I was seeing 17 years old in the majors in the same year they were drafted, and probably about 100 guys 20 or younger, pre-patch. (Note that this isn't just with draft classes, it's teams promoting guys that are already in their system)

Post-patch, in two tests, teams are still promoting these guys but the numbers is down to the 30/40 range for the whole league.

Thanks both of you!

I saw it was in the patch notes but have also seen reports that it's not fixed.

Maybe it's because a started save on a previous patch don't get the fix and you have to start a new save or it is not fixed.

Personally i don't want to do a deep dive before knowing development works as intended.

Would really like to see some numbers/data if someone is willing to put the time in to it.

Thanks for your reply!

Your post-patch experience - is that a new save started with the newest patch?

I've just gotten to the draft in a save started post patch, and, while I don't have the raw data to back up my claim, it's quite easy to see via the prospect pipeline screen that development or promotion logic still isn't quite where it should be.

Two completely new saves started after the patch

I simmed mine 20 years and was still seeing the same thing.

I don't see the problem here:confused: The AI has a guy in AA who is actually in AA in real life this year. That doesn't exactly seem like an issue:p

Sure, looks like he's underperforming a bit so far, but it happens.

Mind you, I'm not saying there's no possibility of any weirdness still, for sure there could be. But we'd need to see some other examples.

Is this happening in the same leagues where it was happening pre-patch, or is it happening in leagues you newly create on this patch as well?

In theory the AI changes should take even on pre-existing leagues, but would be interesting to know if there's any difference at all between the two for those still seeing this.

EDIT: Sorry, I see you answered that already in another post. Could you post or upload a copy of the league files for one of those leagues if you get a chance?

If you look closely, he was just called up to the Padres in MLB. A player with 20 current ability who is underperforming in AA as you said.

I could get more examples when I have my game open, and I'm sure the promotion logic is better than it was, but it's still not quite right, as others are attesting to.

Ah, ok gotcha. I missed that, my bad :o

Definitely not quite optimal, but that is a tough case where the Padres upper minors IF depth is pretty bad (it gave us fits when trying to get the Opening Day rosters right with the AI wanting to keep a bunch of bad guys on the roster and even the real Padres ended up going with Tucupita Marcano on the roster), so with a few injuries I could see this happening even with no AI issues.

For sure though, we'll check things over even more since it does seem things still need some tweaking.

I am playing fictional and I am still noticing that generated draftees can be too well developed on creation.

Draft classes will most often have one or two high potential rookies with current ratings at MLB ready level. These images are showing 100% scouting accuracy.

https://i.imgur.com/jKuFDJW.png

There is also always a strong group of players at or just below replacement level.

https://i.imgur.com/C9mIIrK.png

While these situations do happen, the prevalence is too frequent. As a comparison, in a new standard mlb game, there is one draftee with a current potential at 40 all other players are 25 or below (100% scouting accuracy).

It seems newly created draft players need to be adjusted further to 'raw' upon creation.

In my current game (started post-patch) the only fast-tracking prospects I've seen have been college players out of the draft (two real-life examples: Rocker, Leiter), who I guess are pretty close to finished products and likely won't spend much time in the minors. Although, both of them made their MLB debuts in 2021, which I'm not quite sure is realistic, but it's not the end of the world.

Also had a player who was a first-round pick but didn't sign, enter the draft again the next year and he was pretty much MLB ready after a couple of months. That seems okay to me though considering he is a well-regarded prospect who spent an extra year in college when he didn't really need to.

I am seeing the same with a large number of just drafted players, especially pitchers, being promoted to the major leagues their rookie pro season but most are college age. My league is fictional with a December draft and 5 levels of minors. Otherwise all default settings. Feels like it may be more an AI roster management issue than development as most promoted guys play sparingly but are on an MLB roster instead of playing regularly in the minors for a few years. Makes sense one or two might occasionally fast track to the majors but I am seeing 10-15 pitchers every year and about half as many hitters. This is with a new league created post patch.

Agree with this.



Another issue being rookies will spend 2-3 years at R or SA level, then go right to MLB. There is no upward progression through the minors.

I also assumed that this issue was fixed with patch the latest patch. Unfortunately it was not.
I started a new game when the latest patch was released and currently I am in mid 2022 season.
The 2022 draft class has players in it which are almost fully developed one month before the draft. There are many 40/45 or 35/45 guys in the draft, which are possibly almost major league ready then they are drafted. There are also two guys with 45 current ability which should start in MLB immediately when they are drafted.
Out of the 2021 draft class Rocker and Leiter were starters at the beginning of 2022.

What are the rating makeup of those players? Even with the update to development, I still think Speed, Defense & Power are overvalued. That’s not a development issue but how OVR is calculated. Those attributes are a hot commodity in a hot prospect but if they can’t hit for average or develop to hit for average especially at certain positions, they usually don’t make it in the majors, hence a lower OVR.

I feel the same about pitchers, far too many pitchers with poor control are making the main roster

Some examples:

https://s20.directupload.net/images/...p/8a3ayebq.jpg
https://s20.directupload.net/images/...p/sy3t9hua.jpg
https://s20.directupload.net/images/...p/8oaz7ggg.jpg

Not sure how to upload a league file, but I'm also not sure you'd be able to find much. I have to open the list of MLB players in Commissioner Mode each calendar day to edit down all the kids the other teams have promoted. So all the problem players' ratings will look pretty wild.

I thought I could fix it with age limits, but but why do my major league age limits affect all my minor league teams? (they release any players that don't fall into the major league age limits).

bump

I am seeing on average 15-20 players deputing the year after they are drafted. I have simmed 30 seasons and it is fairly consistent each season.

I have noticed that players 21 or older are too developed and develop too quickly.

Switching the draft to 100% high school players fixed the issue for me but it means the draft class is very young now (18-19 only).

100% the same as I am seeing

I am seeing the same trends myself SMJ.

Development fixed?
 

Yup. Particularly the college prospects are far too developed at defense. High amounts of speed (still after patch) adds to the fast track. This should be only true for those elite college prospects, not something we should see every year from multiple players.


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I too am playing fictional league but with 4 levels of minors.

I tried with some junior college players but they were still coming in too developed, but it did mean less of them.

i thought i was just controlled by the dev and aging modifier (though i never got players to play longer with aging modifier)

I've noticed the same thing. My college prospects are fully developed and MLB ready with less than one full year of minor league experience.

This a pretty big issue IMO...not sure where the developers are on this.

bump

In your example, look at the ages of the first two players. 22 and 24. They are going to be more developed. The 21 year old being a 40 might be slightly high but none of these guys are raw 16-19 year olds. By 21-24 they should either be busts or be able to at least be on the edge of being in the majors, if they were not bust prospects. You should see 20/50 with the players being 16-19, maybe even a few 19 year olds being 25. but that 21 year old having college experience and then on top of that almost being at his celling already is like having him in your minors from the time he was 18 or 19. Its just that he has his time being in college pitching over being in a farm system.

So not really sure I see any issues with the 3 players you posted because of their ages and the fact that they played college ball. I am not sure if you think they should be 20's or what?

It unrealistic.
Some of the players would go straight from being drafted into the majors.
In the last (real) 20 years, only 3 players went straight from draft to MLB.

Yea, this is definitely still a problem. Simulated on 22 and 21 to compare first year player drafts.....OOTP 22 is making a ridiculous amount of high-potential non-RP players when compared to OOTP 21. Also, OOTP 21 I didn't see any non-RP players with an OVR above 30, but there's 7 of them in my OOTP 22 sim, including a SS and SP who are 45s, technically ready to play in the majors.

The amount of guys on OOTP 21 who have a potential above 50 can fit half a page, whereas the bottom of page 1 for OOTP 22 is 60-65 potential (again, removed relievers for both to get rid of clutter....100% accuracy for both as well)

You would put a 40 on your MLB team? Can you tell me how many players in the last 20 years were in the minors for 1 year and called up? Each player you posted should spend at least 1 season, except the 24 year old (I would not draft them I would skip because of the age), in the minors before being called up. A college player has a HELL of a lot better chance being called up with 1 year of minors under their belt.

So, once again, no, I do not see it as unrealistic. It is a very realistic possibility to see that caliber of player being drafted, spending a year or 2 in the minors and being called up.

Andrew Benintendi
Kyle Schwarber
Michael Conforto
Brandon Finnegan
Dansby Swanson
Alex Bregman

Just to name a few players that were pretty much MLB ready and spent hardly any time in the MiLB before being called up. So, no, I would call the 3 players you posted pretty realistic. This is just 6 players and there are way more than these 6.

Let's not forget Juan Soto who only played 122 games in the minors before being called up.

See now THIS is where I see a possible problem. If there are 50+ 3-3.5 star potential (roughly 55-60) players alone in a draft, then you add the 4-5 star players, yeah I can see an issue. However, if they are all 20 overall that potential don't mean all that much but if they are 16-19 years old and a 50/70, yeah that's an issue.

I don't see an issue with a 21-24 year old being a 2-2.5 overall star (roughly 25-40) recruit coming out of college. They are not raw HS players. Yeah College ain't the minors but it's also not high school. They should be well over a 20 but just on the edge of the MLB where a half year to 1 year in the minors could develop them into an MLB player.

Now in the end, potential of 5 stars or 80 for a 16-19 year old really don't mean all that much. Just like pfholden states in his videos, take potential with a grain of salt because its only a guideline of possible potential and most of the time is not the overall outcome. I have seen 80 potential players end up only becoming 3 star or 50-55 player by the time they actually develop and I have seen 3 star draft players become 4-5 star players when they fully develop.

As long as you are not seeing a 25+ list of 40 overall rated players in the draft then it should be good but if you are seeing 45-55 overall 16-20 year old players, then yeah, issue. My drafts have actually been pretty underwhelming. Posted a picture of mine. The higher aged players are somewhat developed but once you hit the 20 year olds and below they are nothing more than 21 or below overall rated players.

My potential is not too exciting either. One possible MLB ready player otherwise, MiLB players that need a year or 2, or more, to develop.

Is my draft a typical over rated fictional draft everyone is complaining about or is it what people are looking for? I didn't adjust anything for this draft. This is all OOTP.

It's not my place to say how things should be...I understand where you're coming from in regards to how often players are almost ready after the draft. I just know what's usually normal for OOTP, and this just doesn't seem normal to me. I'm sure the crew is looking into it though....not like you can just fix everything at a moment's notice. I'm not one to be patient (or mature), but better late than never. OOTP is one of the greatest creations in sports, and I'll treat it with the respect it deserves. I'll stick with 21 until then....still happy I bought 22.

Are any devs still alive? A short statement if this issue will be handled in the current patch is highly appreciated.

Agree. There's still a big problem.

I'm starting to think not. We can't even get them to comment on what all the new coaching ratings do.

As you can see, I already commented on this on the first page of the thread :)

I think what people want to know is when the next patch will be released. It's going to be a long weekend in Canada (Victoria Day) and I think in the US as well. At least here in Ottawa they call for rain much of that long weekend too ;)

We're shooting for a public beta early next week if all goes well. It's a long weekend here in Europe as well ;)

It's snowing here in Calgary today, so I don't think you should be complaining about your weather :p

Not to pile on but this issue goes beyond development and includes aggressive player promotion to the bigs, starting as early as April of the 2021 season. It's definitely not an 'in the future' problem.
I haven't gone through every roster but, in my current save, every team I have faced has at least one player who hasn't played above A ball and often more. And they are playing regularly or in the starting rotation or working prominent BP innings.
Just finished a series with the Cubs who have a young C Amaya, with a few at bats at A+ under his belt, splitting time with Contreras. He was 0 for 30 coming into our series and scratched out an IF hit against us.
But many of the young players are thriving, performing like established MLB stars, not raw rookies.
Look, our club (Cleveland) started 28-10 so this is not about losing a couple games. In fact, as we embarked on a road trip starting in Seattle, I only asked myself HOW things were going to start to balance out against the sub-.500 Mariners, not whether or not they would.
We've lost the first two games 5-1 and 10-1 predictably. But it was Jared Kelenic (going to be in line for an all star berth) and Julio Rodriguez who played key roles in their line up.
Meanwhile, Logan Gilbert shut us out for 6 innings of 4-hit ball, followed by 2020 draft pick Emerson Hancock (having never thrown a pitch in the minors) who should have no-hit us over his 5.1 innings except that I got pissed and managed a bunt single on an 0-2 count. And didn't feel badly about it!
Really, though, Kelenic and Gilbert in the majors? OK. No problem.
But both thriving. MMMM.
Meanwhile, Rodriguez has 65 AB at high A to his credit and Hancock has never pitched in the minors.
And their flourishing during their first appearances in the show, too?
Yah, I think both development and promotion still need to be dialed down.

Freddy Peralta's debut was in 2018 against the Rockies in Denver, and he struck out 13.

Its baseball, unrealistic events are what make it realistic.

Yes. and "unrealistic events" are called outliers for that reason.
They shouldn't become the norm.
Too MANY players are being promoted too quickly and too MANY of those are having too much success on their first trip to the bigs.
That means they are no longer "unrealistic events" but the norm.

It was probably a mistake to try to make my point anecdotally.
So I'll just post the following facts and then leave it alone.
In my current save, it is May 16, 2021.
At least 10 players from the 2020 draft are in the majors, having never seen the minors. Most are doing extremely well.
Along with those players, there are literally dozens of guys in the big leagues who have never played above A ball and some never above rookie ball. Some are struggling, but few. Most are holding their own and some are excelling.
Case in point is Thanaj Thomas (Pittsburgh). Good prospect? Yes.
But to be in the majors at this point and producing the numbers captured in the screenshot?
Too many. Too soon. Doing too well.
I know the devs meant well. In past versions it seemed like it took forever for some guys to reach the bigs. But in an effort to reflect the current more aggressive promotion of young players, it has gone WAY past the point of realism.

Attachment 783407

In real life he is playing in High A, Starting games, very good numbers so far.