Pitchers - Groundball vs Flyball
 

Hi guys, just wanted to poll people on their preference as it relates to pitcher tendencies in allowing groundballs/flyballs. Personally, I prefer extreme groundballers and prioritize strong infield defense (with an emphasis on range). Anecdotally, I feel like groundball pitchers generally produce better results compared to flyball pitchers, mostly due to the flyball pitchers' propensity to have high HR/9. I do think that there's a case to be made that extreme flyball pitchers have the potential to be better than extreme groundball pitchers since data shows that flyballs, on average, have a lower BABIP than groundballs (infield flies and lazy flyballs = easy outs). The only wildcards here are defense, and to what extent those flyballs turn into homeruns.

I'm curious, for those who favor flyball pitchers (particularly extreme flyball pitchers), do you tend to see your pitchers have higher HR/9 than you would prefer? Does your preference for flyball pitchers lead you to select a team with a ballpark that has low HR factors and then go from there? Are there other factors which make you prefer flyball pitchers?

Really interested in hearing people's perspectives on this topic, so please feel free to vote and chime in!

It might depend on the year played (before 1920 probably fly ball pitcher). Modern times, definitely groundball pitchers.

I usually only play modern, so I guess it makes sense I would prefer groundballers.

there are two things I hate from a pitcher is Walks and HR given up

Everything else being equal? A groundballer every time.

Ground ball pitchers with good infield defense, can't catch one that has left the park.

This is the underrated comment in this thread. GB vs FB isn’t as important as walks-allowed and HR-allowed. I’d take a flyballer who doesn’t put guys on base or allow many HRs over a grounballer who lets every batters pound hard contact or the oft-allowed 3-run bomb.

There's also the low-key effect that flyball pitchers have a (slightly) lower BABIP because pop-outs in the field of play almost never fall in for a base hit. In the modern game, yeah, grounders still prevent homeruns (although a good Movement score can counteract that) but even at that you might want to even take your home field into account. If you play in a stadium with a huge left field and you have a FB LHP, they can be kind of mediocre and still do OK for you by giving you the full effect of the pop fly issue while your park minimizes the homeruns they give up. The most extreme recent example I can think of with that is Jarrod Washburn, who more or less overnight went from league average in Safeco Field to out of the league because he gave up 12 HRs in 43 IPs after getting traded to Detroit.

I don't mind fly ball if he is an ace power type of pitcher.

But I wouldn't want them as my 4 or 5 starters.

I read somewhere (probably The Book: playing the percentages in baseball) that ground-ball pitchers really only have an effect, consistently, on normal or ground-ball hitters. Typically, a fly-ball hitter can and will still hit fly balls when facing a ground-ball pitcher. That's why I still don't choose 'pitch to contact' when facing a slugger, regardless of the pitcher.

But yeah, I don't mind extreme fly-ball pitchers if they have great stuff and command, but usually prefer GB pitchers.

In OOTP I want ground ball pitchers. In the majors it would depend though. If I am facing a lineup of primarily fly ball hitters then I want a fly ball pitcher. If they are primarily ground ball hitters then I want a ground ball pitcher. The reason is because the platoon splits are more apparent here than they are in the lefty/righty paradigm. I don't believe that OOTP models this in any way though. I could be wrong, but I've never seen anyone on these forums ever mention the possibility of those platoon splits manifesting themselves in OOTP. So it would appear that in OOTP there is no natural advantage for the pitcher to be an extreme fly ball pitcher if pitching against an extreme fly ball hitter, even though that appears to be a stronger advantage on average in MLB than having a lefty pitcher against a lefty batter.

If playing the percentages in baseball then you'd actually want a fly ball pitcher to face that fly ball hitter instead of that ground ball pitcher.

I have a follow up question: I have a preference for Groundballers with velocity, so I tend to scout/draft/sign young pitchers with that profile. Lately I have noticed that several of them have converted to Flyball types. Why would this be, and what causes it? I prioritize my pitching coach hires as GB, Power, and Neutral (if necessary), with a preference for strong developmental influence. I get the change in ability ratings, but it's frustrating to scout out a prospect, sacrifice to sign/trade for/draft the guy, only to have him turn out to be completely different that what I profiled.

There’s a ground ball percentage that’s influenced by the pitches a pitcher throws. It’s possible that that guy was close to the threshold and got a bump to his Stuff with the curveball or four seamer or perhaps a hit to his two-seamer or splitter.