Drafting Pitchers
 

In my current Rockies save I am coming up on the 2024 Draft.



If you have the choice between a college or high school pitcher what criteria do you use to make that choice?
The mock draft has me taking a HS outfielder (drafting in the 5th spot)
but there are 2 pitchers I can take if available

Just going to ignore the Rockies piece because that throws a wrench in it all and that's for you to figure out.

College pitchers are generally MUCH safer, you can start to really stack middle of the rotation pitchers to a crazy degree if you target college pitchers every year in the first round. Talking 48-60 OVR players (on a scale of 80) -- this is a great way to flip SP's for hitting prospects after you get 3-4 who are solidified at the ML level.

However, you do run into the issue that you have zero top of the rotation arms and are very susceptible to the randomness of baseball. High School pitchers have more time for talent change randomness and time to learn new skills, thus having a better chance at becoming a Top of the rotation arm.

I think it depends where you are. If you're a big market team, you can complement your middle of the rotation college draft picks with an ace in FA. If you're a small market team, then college pitchers will keep you competitive but you might always be lacking the bullpen in both the regular season and playoffs to make up for their 4.00 ERA's, along with lacking of a true ace off the Free Agent market.

Ideally you'd find your solid core of 3-4 homegrown college draft picks that develop into middle of the rotation big leaguers then you can take swings on high schoolers

There are many people who prefer a college pitcher and other people who prefer a high school pitcher.

In my opinion regarding the draft, regardless of the level of the pitcher (college or HS), I prefer that they have a high floor in all ratings, work ethic and intelligence, these last two factors are a plus when it comes to the pitcher being able to reach their full potential.

If the choice is between 2 pitchers with similar ratings and similar characteristics, it is better to take the HS P as hopefully (TCR) can reach a higher ceiling.

Being the Rockies makes it so much more interesting though.Who you draft, who you trade for.

If the potential is exactly the same and one of the two players is more advanced, you should take the more advanced player.

The hard question is whether you should pick a high-schooler with high potential but low current ability, or a college pitcher with mid potential but closer to getting there. The college pitcher is more likely to ever contribute in the majors, while the high schooler probably has a better chance to be a star (but also a much higher chance of never getting to the MLB).

TCR cuts both ways and I don't really see an argument for taking it into consideration when making a high draft pick.

Of the four types of players in the draft (HS Pitcher, HS Hitter, College Pitcher, College Hitter), HS Pitchers are significantly worse picks than the other three.

My approach is to rank every HS pitcher in the draft 'fairly' (ie: where I would otherwise rank them in relation to everyone else in a vacuum), then immediately knock every one down my draft board.

While there isn't really a right answer to this, I would say a lot of it depends on where you're at as an organization at the time of the draft.

If you're in "win now" mode a college pitcher who can offer MLB contributions in the somewhat near future might by the better option as opposed to waiting 5+ years for a high school pitcher. Even if that HS pitcher has a higher ceiling. But if you're rebuilding a team and are years away from contending, the HS player with the higher upside would make more sense.

Rockies in 2024 are not very developed... take a college pitcher with reasonable OVR rating (preferably a lefty) high in strikeouts and groundballs if available.