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Originally Posted by Skipaway
By 2nd and 3rd, you mean within one standard deviation of his career path at the end of the career. Yeah, there is a tiny bit decline, but if that's the point you are trying to make about Rice, you are basically saying Rice didn't really matter much.
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What's the z-score?
He did worse without Rice than he did with him. He's just one of many examples. Yes, you can make a case for any of these particular QB's having other reasons--confounding variables.
But you know that as n increases--as in, as more QB's fit the mold of doing a lot better with T.O. and Randy--the probability of them not being the cause goes down and down.
The strength of the argument for T.O. and Randy isn't that any particular quarterback has declined/gotten better. It's that nobody has gone against the grain--nobody has lost T.O. and done better, nobody has gained Randy and done worse.