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Originally Posted by james17
Sweed,
Thanks for your analysis. Being more than a little dense on the subject of league totals and modifiers I do have 2 questions:
1) The very low totals you got from simming one season don't seem to match the modifiers (percentage wise) you used to increase your totals For example, hits at 39133 times a modifier of 1.121 doesn't equal the default of 44522. It comes out to 43868. Is that because you continued to adjust the modifiers without regard to the default totals? and,
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I'm not a guru at this and this system is new to ootp2006 but I will explain what I did and my understanding of how it is supposed to work.
First the target for hits was 44522 but the setting of 1.00 resulted in 39133.
44522-39133= 5389 short.
5389/44522= .121
add the .121 to the starting setting of 1.00 = 1.121
this should result in a 12.1% rise in hits.
I agree this looks funny but you are not trying to raise the 39133 result by 1.138 to equal 44522 (39,133 x 1.138= 44533).
What you are doing is trying to get 12.1% more hits from your setting, 44522,
that is the figure the game is using to generate results. The 39133 is only a result of the setting 44522.
So 44,522 x .121 = 5387 more hits. Add that to 39133 + 5387 = 44520.
At least that is my understanding of the new system and it seems to work pretty well. If we looked to increase the 39133 to 44522 we'd be using 1.138 which would overshoot the mark by quite a bit. As you can see the 1.121 resulted in an increase of 6600 hits compared to the 5387 we wanted.
Also have to factor in that walks are still about 3000 to low so some guys instead of drawing a walk were getting an ab and increasing hit totals. All things in this are related so when you tweak one you sometimes see a ripple effect. When I tweak my totals I do look at the numbers whether HR's, doubles, or triples. But I also look at the percentage of total hits. If hits are way to high home runs will probably follow. You might have 6000 too many hits and 800 too many home runs. Do you tweak both hr's and hits? To me it depends on the percentages. If hr's are 12% of total hits in the setting and are still 12% of the total hits even though they are 800 to high I only tweak the hits. My thinking is by lowering the hits the home runs will follow but still be approx 12 % of the total hits.
This is my understanding of how it works and whenever I increase or decrease a setting I am getting the results I expect to get.
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Originally Posted by james17
2) What would you do with the second season after you play it out? Would you adjust the totals again based on your second season results, leave them the same. or could you use 'adjust totals for historical accuracy' to keep your league's stats as close to a straight line as possible?
As you can see I'm confused.  |
Well I play every inning of every game so I always have a good handle on what is going on in my world. At the end of each season I will take a look at the numbers. If they look realistic I leave it as is and move on to the next season. If something is getting out of line I make adjustments but only after I am sure it's not just a random happening. In other words I make it prove to me that a change is needed over two seasons. I won't change much after one unless something is way out there. Like this first sim with walks at 8068 when they should be at 16000, that I would not let go. I would like to think I would see the trend very early in the season and if it was bad enough I might evern make a change then. Saying that I don't think something like that coudl ever sneak up on a guy that plays them all out. Now a guy that sims 5 years at a time could get bit if he wasn't careful
Hope that helps you out.