Thread: Substitutions
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Old 06-23-2008, 09:15 PM   #7
__JR__
Minors (Single A)
 
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Near St. Paul, MN
Posts: 93
Last update for tonight, I can probably finish all my box scores either tomorrow or Wednesday.
  • 8.5 Innings
    • 5.391 Average
    • 3.09 STDEV
    • 284 Games
  • 9 Innings
    • 7.398 Average
    • 3.86 STDEV
    • 405 Games
  • 10 Innings
    • 13.782 Average
    • 2.95 STDEV
    • 55 Games
  • X>11
    • 17.261 Average
    • 4.82 STDEV
    • 92 Games
    • 12.43 Innings/game Average
Overal 8.221 subs/game average. As soon as the game goes into extra innings it becomes 15.959 subs/game average.

As stated previously, I skewed my results for 9 inning games until I can get more of the "low sub" games into the data, so I'm very pleased with the results in regulation length games. The problem as I see it is that the AI gets a little trigger happy as the game goes on, and I'm projecting approximately double the amount of subs in a game that goes from just the 9th to the 10th inning. I see this as a tad unrealistic, or at the very least too many for the setting of "VERY RARELY". If this is actually realistic, then "VERY RARELY" should be exactly what it says, conversely "VERY OFTEN" (or whatever the converse setting is) should be even higher than usual.

Overall this has been a reassuring experiment so far, I'm seeing the subs in regulation games to be a very acceptable number. At the same time, its not just the number of substitutions that bother me, rather the fact that by making all the substitutions the AI basically self destructs itself in the late game, where mistakes are even more costly than in the beginning of the game. Having an outfielder play catcher/3B, or being stuck with very poor hitters because you earlier subbed your last players in for a L/R match up can cripple a team and lose a game. I can see possibly making these moves if the risk/reward is great enough, but often the subs come with 2 outs and nobody on, and then they're immediately replaced the next half inning in the field, sucking up two reserve players for no apparent reason other than "simply because you can".

EDIT I think I want to add that these teams probably only have 6 or 7 pitchers max. 1901 settings give a 4 man rotation, and they by default take advantage (or would I be taking advantage of them only having 2-3 relief pitchers?). This doesn't change my point, however. If they're so aggressive they're capable of burning through 9-11 players in 1-2 innings of play (leaving NO subs except the bullpen), whats to stop them from doing the same thing in the modern day carrying only 5-6 subs?? It's possible its just an AI flaw when the roster is set like this, but I suppose it's something to check out.

Last edited by __JR__; 06-23-2008 at 09:30 PM.
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