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I had the same problem the first couple of times I started my league, until I figured out that I could adjust the "Talent Change Randomness" under the Player and Picture Options tab of the Game Setup. It defaults to 100, so if you don't have recalc turned on, your guys are basically guaranteed to follow ahistoric career paths.
I have recalc turned off, but randomness dialed down, so now I get a reasonable amount of accuracy with plenty of unexpected wrinkles.
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