Quote:
Originally Posted by RchW
You estimated 1 or 2 double steals per year IRL in 1960. Let's choose 2. That is a rate of 2/162 games. You estimated OOTP to be 10-15 times that so the OOTP rate would be 20/162 to 30/162.
The reason I bring it up is that you might see 2 double steals in 3 games but not see another for 50 games depending on the opponent and who is on base.
Have you confirmed that OOTP produces that rate over a significant number of games? We also talked about other plays that could produce a double steal result.
I understand that. I was letting you indicate what rate to use (see above). Using 20/162 games is a little unweildy IMO, but it's all I can think of. 
I thought I was taking an interest. This will be a difficult issue to document without a proper sample size. |
I appreciate the interest, and sorry if my response seemed curt.
I knew someone would put me on the spot about stats, so I started extending my count on DS as I've been looking at other things happening in my games (like bunts). So, here's what I can give you now: in 38 games, IRL there was 1 (that's a one) double steal. In OOTP there have been 9 (that's the total for both teams in all games). However, the 1 that occurred IRL was the only one for that team all season (the Giants, which is the team I am primarily keying on). In other words, in those 38 games in real life, none of the teams playing against the Giants had a DS, while the Giants had the only one they did that season. In OOTP, the Giants and their opponents combined for 9 DS in those same 38 games.
Now I've been through this season a couple times, but I haven't specifically focused on DS frequency so much before. Still, I'm pretty sure there were only 1, maybe 2, other DS that occurred in the Giant's schedule that year. I fully expect to see at least 30 in their 154 games in my OOTP league.
If 38 games is not a large enough sample for you, that's fine. I'll probably have a bigger count at some point. But, considering how often one sees men on 1st & 2nd, less than 2 outs, 38 games ought to be enough to tell you what the AI is likely to do the next time you see it.
More to the point -- and this is the essence of the problem for someone like myself trying to get authentic gameplay -- I will see DS roughly every 5-6 games as I watch the Giants play their OOTP league. As a fan with season-tickets to Candlestick in 1960, I would have been astonished to see such madness on the base paths (in fact, I might even be saying "no wonder Bill Rigney got fired"). I hope people reading these threads understand that this is what motivates my interest in the whole authentic gameplay question.
Anyway, if you have more questions along these lines, go ahead and ask them and I'll try to answer them.