Quote:
Originally Posted by pstrickert
IRL in 1974, BABIP in the AL ranged from .269 - .292. That's 23 points between the highest and lowest team BABIP. So, in your view, it doesn't matter where a team falls within that range in OOTP, since it'll still be within about 20 points of real life. The team with the highest team BABIP in real life could have the lowest team BABIP in OOTP (and vice-versa) . . . but that's no problem. That's close enough. I guess you're easy to please.  |
Careful. What I said was that if they were all like Baltimore's, I'd feel pretty good. That's 10 either way, not 20. DIPS theory postulates that some of the variation is simply luck. If this is offensive BABIP you're talking about, we're not going to improve those numbers by making defensive imports better. If you run the simulation on Baltimore 100 times, presumably you'd get a bell curve which would be centered on the right number. That's exactly what you want. The right expectation coupled with enough variability to make life interesting.