Quote:
Originally Posted by swampdragon
Careful. What I said was that if they were all like Baltimore's, I'd feel pretty good. That's 10 either way, not 20. DIPS theory postulates that some of the variation is simply luck. If this is offensive BABIP you're talking about, we're not going to improve those numbers by making defensive imports better. If you run the simulation on Baltimore 100 times, presumably you'd get a bell curve which would be centered on the right number. That's exactly what you want. The right expectation coupled with enough variability to make life interesting.
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1. I'm not sure I follow. "10 either way" is a spread of 20, isn't it?
2. By team BABIP, I mean the BABIP for the team's pitching staff. Team defense must factor into that, right?
3. The past two years, I've simmed the '74 season probably 100 times. Did I check the BABIP stats each time? Of course not. But I have noticed that Baltimore's defensive stats rarely match up with their real-life defensive stats. I think it's no coincidence that the BABIP for Baltimore's pitching staff also rarely (if ever) approaches their real-life BABIP.