OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - Determining Rookie Ratings for starting year of historical simulations

tpaine · 08-21-2009, 02:40 PM

Thanks, that helps.

What prompted my question was the notion that you may have two rookies both of whom had very strong minor league careers and comparable promise going into their rookie seasons but then one rookie goes on to a very productive and long career while the other flames out in a season or less.

The reason for the latter's flame out may be that he simply could not cut it in the big leagues, he caught a bad break, or both. It would seem to me that, without considering the minor league records of the players, when you run the sims for the rookie season for both these rookies, almost invariably, the minor league phenom who actually made it in the big leagues in real life, will have a good year in the sim for that year and future simulated years, while the minor league phenom who didn't, won't, the latter possibly being relegated to a bench role because of his poor real life stat and so not getting enough plate appearances to make a difference. Again, this may be warranted because the rookie with the worse real life stats may be a less talented player or it may be because he got injured or otherwise caught a bad break.

I wonder whether a fix to this would be to factor in real life, pre-rookie year minor league stats on a discounted basis. Has this been done?

Anyway, thank you again for your reply.

08-21-2009, 02:40 PM	#3
tpaine Bat Boy Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 5	Thanks, that helps. What prompted my question was the notion that you may have two rookies both of whom had very strong minor league careers and comparable promise going into their rookie seasons but then one rookie goes on to a very productive and long career while the other flames out in a season or less. The reason for the latter's flame out may be that he simply could not cut it in the big leagues, he caught a bad break, or both. It would seem to me that, without considering the minor league records of the players, when you run the sims for the rookie season for both these rookies, almost invariably, the minor league phenom who actually made it in the big leagues in real life, will have a good year in the sim for that year and future simulated years, while the minor league phenom who didn't, won't, the latter possibly being relegated to a bench role because of his poor real life stat and so not getting enough plate appearances to make a difference. Again, this may be warranted because the rookie with the worse real life stats may be a less talented player or it may be because he got injured or otherwise caught a bad break. I wonder whether a fix to this would be to factor in real life, pre-rookie year minor league stats on a discounted basis. Has this been done? Anyway, thank you again for your reply.