OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - How to deal with players' stolen base success rate

drowtfs · 11-10-2009, 11:00 PM

So, I'm sure this is a common problem with speedy players...
I have this right-fielder, I just signed him after he completed 6 years of service with another club. His rookie and sophomore year were great, batting .322 and .311 while going 74-28 82-26 in stolen base attempts and he even won RoY. Then he deteriorated considerably, hitting .279 .236 .264 and .265 until becoming a free agent. I signed him to a deal for $9m over 3 years and now he's had a big breakout sort of season with career highs in batting average, base hits, doubles, walks and OBP. He's turned into a good leadoff hitter, but I'm afraid he's not really that good. That's because in this first season with us, he went 44-30 in stolen base attempts. If you discount the base hits that he threw away by getting caught stealing, his AVG goes down from .331 to .277 and his OBP down from .404 to like .356 or something... that's no longer a real leadoff's OBP. Adjusting his OPS to reflect the extra bases he gets for the steals and the ones he loses when he gets caught, his OPS goes down from .866 to .845
That means that for all his 44 stolen bases, all he does in the end is lower his OPS by 21 points. That's stupid.

My question is, what do you think about that? Do you think this is sound? Do you think the momentous value of stolen bases alone is more important than how his thieving habit ultimately affects his OPS? How do you think I may affect his performance so as to help him not get caught so often, what type of player strategy could I try on him? This is all making me seriously lean towards taking advantage of his comeback year to capitalize via trade, but if his stolen base success rate could be restored to his earlier levels, he would be an awesome leadoff hitter. His stolen base success rates, year-by-year, have been 74-28, 82-26, 60-19, 9-11 (in 212 at-bats), 44-25, 24-17 and now 44-30... so this is one area of his latest shortcomings that has continued, in spite of all his other career highs. Why would this be? His baserunning stats are Running Speed 90 Stealing 83, Baserunning 65, so I would think it's his baserunning instincts that tend to get him caught. I don't know...
Any thoughts or experience you may relate to this case?

11-10-2009, 11:00 PM	#1
drowtfs Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 23	How to deal with players' stolen base success rate So, I'm sure this is a common problem with speedy players... I have this right-fielder, I just signed him after he completed 6 years of service with another club. His rookie and sophomore year were great, batting .322 and .311 while going 74-28 82-26 in stolen base attempts and he even won RoY. Then he deteriorated considerably, hitting .279 .236 .264 and .265 until becoming a free agent. I signed him to a deal for $9m over 3 years and now he's had a big breakout sort of season with career highs in batting average, base hits, doubles, walks and OBP. He's turned into a good leadoff hitter, but I'm afraid he's not really that good. That's because in this first season with us, he went 44-30 in stolen base attempts. If you discount the base hits that he threw away by getting caught stealing, his AVG goes down from .331 to .277 and his OBP down from .404 to like .356 or something... that's no longer a real leadoff's OBP. Adjusting his OPS to reflect the extra bases he gets for the steals and the ones he loses when he gets caught, his OPS goes down from .866 to .845 That means that for all his 44 stolen bases, all he does in the end is lower his OPS by 21 points. That's stupid. My question is, what do you think about that? Do you think this is sound? Do you think the momentous value of stolen bases alone is more important than how his thieving habit ultimately affects his OPS? How do you think I may affect his performance so as to help him not get caught so often, what type of player strategy could I try on him? This is all making me seriously lean towards taking advantage of his comeback year to capitalize via trade, but if his stolen base success rate could be restored to his earlier levels, he would be an awesome leadoff hitter. His stolen base success rates, year-by-year, have been 74-28, 82-26, 60-19, 9-11 (in 212 at-bats), 44-25, 24-17 and now 44-30... so this is one area of his latest shortcomings that has continued, in spite of all his other career highs. Why would this be? His baserunning stats are Running Speed 90 Stealing 83, Baserunning 65, so I would think it's his baserunning instincts that tend to get him caught. I don't know... Any thoughts or experience you may relate to this case?