OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post

pstrickert · 11-17-2011, 09:44 PM

Your problems might be related to:

a) ratings based on neutralized stats (instead of real stats)
b) ratings recalc base = 3 yrs (instead of 1 yr)

I'll cut-and-paste an explanation about using neutralized stats. (See below.) It was written by Garlon, OOTP's Historical DB-meister. Please review it at your convenience. In the meantime, I'll use one of your examples: Claude Osteen being bumped from the Dodger rotation in 1967 in favor of Alan Foster.

Foster's stats IRL:

1967: 4 G, 2 GS, 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA
1968: 3 G, 3 GS, 15.2 IP, 1.72 ERA

The neutralized DB prorates his real-life stats. So, when OOTP uses the neutralized DB to rate Foster, it bases the ratings on these stats:

1967: 9 G, 6 GS, 40 IP, 3.60 ERA
1968: 9 G, 7 GS, 40 IP, 3.60 ERA

He is a completely viable option for the AI in the Dodger rotation. Thus, someone -- in this case, Osteen -- is demoted to the bullpen.

EDIT: Osteen's stats in the neutralized DB:

1967: 39 G, 39 GS, 271.2 IP, 4.44 ERA

The other factor is 3-yr recalc. OOTP will use the previous season (1966), current season (1967), and next season (1968) in calculating ratings for Foster. Since he didn't pitch at the major league level in 1966, he is given the value of a replacement player (I think). But the next two seasons, Foster compiled very good stats (according to the neutralized DB). Thus, using 3-yr recalc, he will receive good ratings for the 1967 season. Better, apparently, than Osteen.

That's the quick-and-dirty explanation. I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong.

And this is what Garlon posted on the beta boards. (I doubt that he would mind me sharing this information.)

Base Player Ratings and abilities on Neutralized Stats or Real Life Stats

The Real Life Stats option is pretty much self explanatory. However, I think there may be a great deal of confusion about our Neutralized Stats database. The Neutralized Stats option provides the most realistic outcomes and ratings for players since these stats are park- and run- neutralized. So players like Willie Davis (1960-1979) who played much of his career for the Dodgers in the toughest hitter’s ballpark in the league are not at a disadvantage in the simulation. Neutralizing his stats allow such hitters to perform to their ability had they been in a different hitter’s environment. If you want more information on how this neutralization process woks check out the section on Willie Davis in The New Bill James Historical Abstract pgs 740-743. The same neutralization process can be explored on baseball-reference.com also.

So since the neutralization process is also run-neutralized (750-run per year environment) will players overperform? No, absolutely not. Remember, we model the league environment from season to season. So even though the player stats are neutralized to a 750-run environment, they will not necessarily be playing in a 750-run environment when you simulate. In the end, the players perform exactly as they should over the course of their career. With the Neutralized Stats no hitters in OOTP will have boosted abilities because they racked up their real life stats in great hitter’s parks, nor will any pitchers have increased abilities because they played in great pitcher’s parks. Likewise, no hitters or pitchers will end up under-rated because they played in poor hitter’s or poor pitcher’s parks respectively.

In addition to the Hitter and Pitcher Stats being neutralized in OOTP, we also went to the extra extent of Neutralizing all of the historical defensive stats as well. Defenders on teams with high strikeout pitching staffs do not get as many opportunities in the field to make outs and that distorts their raw real-life Put Out and Assist totals and therefore their Range Factors. Our neutralized stats take into account pitching staff strikeout rates, excess left-handed or right-handed pitching, team defensive efficiency, groundball rates, team expected double plays and other variables that would otherwise not allow for direct comparison of defenders based on their real-life stats. Now we can do this. We even went to the extent o determining things like Unassisted Put Outs by 1Bmen so that we can accurately rate them too.

So now you are saying “sure even if you can neutralize their defensive stats you still don’t know how many defensive innings each player in history had because the real life data only goes back about 50 years and therefore you still can’t know their true Range Factor”. Well guess what, we actually do have player defensive inning outs going all the way back to 1871 in our database. For more information check out the section titled Estimated Defensive Innings in Bill James Win Shares pgs 155-160. We even went the extra step of determining Outfielder Innings played each season at each of the 3 outfield positions for each player, not just their total outfield defensive innings.

So if you ever wondered “how good would player X be if he didn’t play half of his games at Coors Field?” now you can find out in the simulation with our neutralized stats.

In addition to this we also filled in the gaps in player career when In real life they did not play because they were in the minor leagues or because they were injured. In situations in which a player only had a handful of AB’s in a season we pro-rated that season of his neutralized stats up to 250 AB basing the missing AB’s on his career averages. This eliminates problems with trying to accurately rate players if they only had a small sample size of AB in a season

11-17-2011, 09:44 PM	#2
pstrickert Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 17,039	Your problems might be related to: a) ratings based on neutralized stats (instead of real stats) b) ratings recalc base = 3 yrs (instead of 1 yr) I'll cut-and-paste an explanation about using neutralized stats. (See below.) It was written by Garlon, OOTP's Historical DB-meister. Please review it at your convenience. In the meantime, I'll use one of your examples: Claude Osteen being bumped from the Dodger rotation in 1967 in favor of Alan Foster. Foster's stats IRL: 1967: 4 G, 2 GS, 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA 1968: 3 G, 3 GS, 15.2 IP, 1.72 ERA The neutralized DB prorates his real-life stats. So, when OOTP uses the neutralized DB to rate Foster, it bases the ratings on these stats: 1967: 9 G, 6 GS, 40 IP, 3.60 ERA 1968: 9 G, 7 GS, 40 IP, 3.60 ERA He is a completely viable option for the AI in the Dodger rotation. Thus, someone -- in this case, Osteen -- is demoted to the bullpen. EDIT: Osteen's stats in the neutralized DB: 1967: 39 G, 39 GS, 271.2 IP, 4.44 ERA The other factor is 3-yr recalc. OOTP will use the previous season (1966), current season (1967), and next season (1968) in calculating ratings for Foster. Since he didn't pitch at the major league level in 1966, he is given the value of a replacement player (I think). But the next two seasons, Foster compiled very good stats (according to the neutralized DB). Thus, using 3-yr recalc, he will receive good ratings for the 1967 season. Better, apparently, than Osteen. That's the quick-and-dirty explanation. I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong. And this is what Garlon posted on the beta boards. (I doubt that he would mind me sharing this information.) Base Player Ratings and abilities on Neutralized Stats or Real Life Stats The Real Life Stats option is pretty much self explanatory. However, I think there may be a great deal of confusion about our Neutralized Stats database. The Neutralized Stats option provides the most realistic outcomes and ratings for players since these stats are park- and run- neutralized. So players like Willie Davis (1960-1979) who played much of his career for the Dodgers in the toughest hitter’s ballpark in the league are not at a disadvantage in the simulation. Neutralizing his stats allow such hitters to perform to their ability had they been in a different hitter’s environment. If you want more information on how this neutralization process woks check out the section on Willie Davis in The New Bill James Historical Abstract pgs 740-743. The same neutralization process can be explored on baseball-reference.com also. So since the neutralization process is also run-neutralized (750-run per year environment) will players overperform? No, absolutely not. Remember, we model the league environment from season to season. So even though the player stats are neutralized to a 750-run environment, they will not necessarily be playing in a 750-run environment when you simulate. In the end, the players perform exactly as they should over the course of their career. With the Neutralized Stats no hitters in OOTP will have boosted abilities because they racked up their real life stats in great hitter’s parks, nor will any pitchers have increased abilities because they played in great pitcher’s parks. Likewise, no hitters or pitchers will end up under-rated because they played in poor hitter’s or poor pitcher’s parks respectively. In addition to the Hitter and Pitcher Stats being neutralized in OOTP, we also went to the extra extent of Neutralizing all of the historical defensive stats as well. Defenders on teams with high strikeout pitching staffs do not get as many opportunities in the field to make outs and that distorts their raw real-life Put Out and Assist totals and therefore their Range Factors. Our neutralized stats take into account pitching staff strikeout rates, excess left-handed or right-handed pitching, team defensive efficiency, groundball rates, team expected double plays and other variables that would otherwise not allow for direct comparison of defenders based on their real-life stats. Now we can do this. We even went to the extent o determining things like Unassisted Put Outs by 1Bmen so that we can accurately rate them too. So now you are saying “sure even if you can neutralize their defensive stats you still don’t know how many defensive innings each player in history had because the real life data only goes back about 50 years and therefore you still can’t know their true Range Factor”. Well guess what, we actually do have player defensive inning outs going all the way back to 1871 in our database. For more information check out the section titled Estimated Defensive Innings in Bill James Win Shares pgs 155-160. We even went the extra step of determining Outfielder Innings played each season at each of the 3 outfield positions for each player, not just their total outfield defensive innings. So if you ever wondered “how good would player X be if he didn’t play half of his games at Coors Field?” now you can find out in the simulation with our neutralized stats. In addition to this we also filled in the gaps in player career when In real life they did not play because they were in the minor leagues or because they were injured. In situations in which a player only had a handful of AB’s in a season we pro-rated that season of his neutralized stats up to 250 AB basing the missing AB’s on his career averages. This eliminates problems with trying to accurately rate players if they only had a small sample size of AB in a season Last edited by pstrickert; 11-17-2011 at 10:20 PM.