Quote:
Originally Posted by phightin
Impressive stuff from everyone. Right now I'm going to see what .900 does but it may very well have to be .150 for ageing. I'm not sure how development would account for all of this by balancing it out by id rather not touch that default. I just do not want to make things more complicated than they already are, but if someone wants to try by all means.
I've run another 2012 sim and I've established some targets for the top hitters in the league. This is based on VORP
Targets for realistic ranges of top 105 batters based on VORP in modern day MLB setting:
Average Age: 28.5-29
Median: 28-29
Top 10: 27.5-28.2
Top 20: 27.8-28.2
Top 30: 27.7-28.4
Top 40: 28-28.7
Top 50: 28.3-29
Top 60: 28.5-29.2
Top 70: 28.3-29.4
Top 80: 28.65-29.4
These are the ranges for prime players. More Importantly though is looking at the percentage of players 30+ who are among the top 105 hitters in the league. Based on my findings the range would be:
Top 105 hitters 30+ based on modern day settings: 36-43 (34%-41%)
IMO 41% might be a bit too high, the ideal number seems to be right around 35-36%.
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Jut to confirm I checked MLB 2011 using OPS+ and WAR and got 37% and 34% respectively. Over 40% might have been likely around 2005.
There is definitely a problem in your league(s). My perception is that the created players are way too good. This suppresses the use of 30+ players and is compounded by early drop off due to an early peak.
Regarding Dev and Aging modifiers, I've played hundreds of seasons and never had to go more than 15% plus or minus on these modifiers. To me this is a big red light that something is wrong with player creation or possibly injuries are destroying 30+ players. I don't think the modifiers themselves are the root cause.
Just my
PS I have the opposite problem in my recent league where 49% of the top 105 batters are 30+. This matches well with the results on the age distribution curve.