OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - Mike Trout for MVP

Pacoheadley · 10-04-2012, 04:51 PM

This is a thread for why I think (know) Trout deserves the MVP over Miguel Cabrera, even though he did win the "Triple Crown".

First of all, regardless of the perceptions on Cabrera's "historic" year, his offense has really not been that historic. Sure, he lead the league in batting average, home runs, and RBIs, but his .330 average would not league the league most years, same for his home runs. Also, he actually had a better season last year. His on-base percentage has dropped 55 points, and his slugging has only risen 20.

Now, people may think that even though it isn't historic, Cabrera has still hit a lot better than Trout. When we look at the numbers, that is not the case.
Cabrera's line - .330/.393/.606 for an OPS of .999
Trout's line - .326/.399/.564 for an OPS of .963
That is a difference of only 36 points. You can then use OPS+ to adjust for the fact that Trout plays in more of a pitcher's park, and he actually leads 171 to 166, meaning Trout hit 71% better than the average hitter, and Cabrera 66%.
All of that doesn't even include Trout's incredible baserunning skills, stealing 49 bases to only 5 caught stealing. When you look at the actual numbers without being blinded by the Triple Crown, you realize that Trout was actually the best offensive player, this is also confirmed by wOBA, with a lead of .422 to .416.

Another argument I see is the "clutch" factor, because Cabrera hit better in "clutch" situations. For numerous reasons, this is either false, or moot. First of all, clutch hitting is NOT a skill or a trait of any kind in Major League Baseball. There have been numerous studies proving this, and I'll even link to one - http://www.tangotiger.net/Alan/ajordan.pdf. Second of all, just because Cabrera hit better with runners in scoring position, it does not mean he was more "clutch", and I'll use two metrics to show this.
First is a stat called WPA, which is "Win Probablity Added". Basically, every time somebody gets a hit, or gets out, they raise or lower their teams chance of winning by X%. Getting a hit that raises your chance of winning by 31% will raise your WPA by .31, getting out in a situation that lowers your chance of winning 7% will lower it by .07. Trout actually leads the American League with a WPA of 5.65. Cabrera is 5th in the AL, at 4.51.
The second of these stats in RE24, and conveniently, Fangraphs has an article out today explaining this. I'll quote for a sentence "RE24 is essentially the difference between the run expectancy when a hitter comes to the plate and when his at-bat ends." If in a certain situation, there are an average of .43 runs scored, and you hit a single that knocks in a run, your RE24 goes up by .57. Trout also leads this stat, at 56.52, and Cabrera is again 5th, at 45.18. If you want to, you can go on Fangraphs and see what every at bat during the year did to a player's RE24.

The third case, is the playoff case. I will keep this one pretty short. The best players in baseball are worth 7-10 wins to a team. A superstar player can't do much more than raise a 60 win team to a 70 win team, for example. In such a team sport, rewarding on the playoffs is not fair, as you are punishing players for their teammates doing. Second of all, the Angels have a better record than the Tigers. Giving Cabrera the award for making the playoffs is essentially rewarding him for playing in a worse division against worse teams.

The fourth and final one, is defense. By all accounts, Cabrera is anywhere from a slightly below average defender, to a terrible one, and all the numbers (UZR, DRS) confirm this, and so does the eye test. He has cost the Tiger's, most likely, anywhere from 1 - 10 runs with his defense. Trout, on the other hand, is considered a good to great fielder, and the numbers say he has been worth anywhere from 10 to 25 runs for the Angels, with his defense alone.

Add this all up, and Trout is the better offensive player (at worse even), and the better defensive player, playing for the team with the better record, and has done more to help his team win. This is why Trout should be the MVP.

10-04-2012, 04:51 PM	#1
Pacoheadley All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Kincheloe, MI Posts: 521	Mike Trout for MVP - From a Tigers fan This is a thread for why I think (know) Trout deserves the MVP over Miguel Cabrera, even though he did win the "Triple Crown". First of all, regardless of the perceptions on Cabrera's "historic" year, his offense has really not been that historic. Sure, he lead the league in batting average, home runs, and RBIs, but his .330 average would not league the league most years, same for his home runs. Also, he actually had a better season last year. His on-base percentage has dropped 55 points, and his slugging has only risen 20. Now, people may think that even though it isn't historic, Cabrera has still hit a lot better than Trout. When we look at the numbers, that is not the case. Cabrera's line - .330/.393/.606 for an OPS of .999 Trout's line - .326/.399/.564 for an OPS of .963 That is a difference of only 36 points. You can then use OPS+ to adjust for the fact that Trout plays in more of a pitcher's park, and he actually leads 171 to 166, meaning Trout hit 71% better than the average hitter, and Cabrera 66%. All of that doesn't even include Trout's incredible baserunning skills, stealing 49 bases to only 5 caught stealing. When you look at the actual numbers without being blinded by the Triple Crown, you realize that Trout was actually the best offensive player, this is also confirmed by wOBA, with a lead of .422 to .416. Another argument I see is the "clutch" factor, because Cabrera hit better in "clutch" situations. For numerous reasons, this is either false, or moot. First of all, clutch hitting is NOT a skill or a trait of any kind in Major League Baseball. There have been numerous studies proving this, and I'll even link to one - http://www.tangotiger.net/Alan/ajordan.pdf. Second of all, just because Cabrera hit better with runners in scoring position, it does not mean he was more "clutch", and I'll use two metrics to show this. First is a stat called WPA, which is "Win Probablity Added". Basically, every time somebody gets a hit, or gets out, they raise or lower their teams chance of winning by X%. Getting a hit that raises your chance of winning by 31% will raise your WPA by .31, getting out in a situation that lowers your chance of winning 7% will lower it by .07. Trout actually leads the American League with a WPA of 5.65. Cabrera is 5th in the AL, at 4.51. The second of these stats in RE24, and conveniently, Fangraphs has an article out today explaining this. I'll quote for a sentence "RE24 is essentially the difference between the run expectancy when a hitter comes to the plate and when his at-bat ends." If in a certain situation, there are an average of .43 runs scored, and you hit a single that knocks in a run, your RE24 goes up by .57. Trout also leads this stat, at 56.52, and Cabrera is again 5th, at 45.18. If you want to, you can go on Fangraphs and see what every at bat during the year did to a player's RE24. The third case, is the playoff case. I will keep this one pretty short. The best players in baseball are worth 7-10 wins to a team. A superstar player can't do much more than raise a 60 win team to a 70 win team, for example. In such a team sport, rewarding on the playoffs is not fair, as you are punishing players for their teammates doing. Second of all, the Angels have a better record than the Tigers. Giving Cabrera the award for making the playoffs is essentially rewarding him for playing in a worse division against worse teams. The fourth and final one, is defense. By all accounts, Cabrera is anywhere from a slightly below average defender, to a terrible one, and all the numbers (UZR, DRS) confirm this, and so does the eye test. He has cost the Tiger's, most likely, anywhere from 1 - 10 runs with his defense. Trout, on the other hand, is considered a good to great fielder, and the numbers say he has been worth anywhere from 10 to 25 runs for the Angels, with his defense alone. Add this all up, and Trout is the better offensive player (at worse even), and the better defensive player, playing for the team with the better record, and has done more to help his team win. This is why Trout should be the MVP.