[VanillaGorilla]

Ed Bailey was the first player chosen in 2000 draft. He found the offer of the Devil Rays to be lacking, so he opted to sit.

In 2001 the Red Sox spent the 11th overall pick on Bailey and made him a suitable offer. And they were glad that they did.

In 2002, Ed Bailey exploded into the league and hit 56 HRs and collected 148 RBI. He also hit 7 triples. He also got on base at a .390 clip and slugged .662 (that's an OPS of 1.052) for a npa OPS+ of 178. These numbers, all career highs, brought him ROY honors. He hit .302, but that would not be a career best.

That these were career highs in no way should suggest that he peeked early. Over his next two seasons he hit a combined 100 HRs, including 49 in only 139 games in his sophomore season.

He hit 452 HRs (44th) for his career. 450 of them came while playing catcher, the second most in league history.

He slashed 277/370/524 in a career that lasted through the 2017 season. This line made for an npa OPS+ of 140.

In six post seasons, Bailey hit 15 HRs in 145 ABs while batting .297. He made it to one WS, but lost.

A four time All Star, Bailey won two GGs as a catcher.

Bailey enters the Hall with his HOFm/s numbers both above the Hall average.

Black Ink: 14
Gray Ink: 81
HOFm: 201
HOFs: 56

Gorilla Composite: 3.6

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In the most pleasant surprise of either HOF, Mickey Mantle finds his way in here. I had mentioned that probably 75-80% of the players who enter would enter each and every time if I ran the same league results 100 times, and that half of the remaining entries would probably get in at least 90% of the time. The remaining players, about 10%, would largely be "right place right time" types that had the stars align. Matt Kemp was one of those. Mickey Mantle is another.

Mantle, at age 83, is the oldest player to enter the Hall. His 45 year wait since retirement is the longest, yet, of any inductee.

Mickey Mantle was the third pick overall way back in the Inaugural Draft. He was selected by the Royals. The league started when he was 28 years-old.

Mantle was injured...a lot.

In fact, only one time did he play 140 games in the regular season. Only twice did he play more than 120. And only 4 times did he play in 100.

In spite of this, he won 2 MVPs, as a Royal. He played his entire career, from 1973-1982, as a Royal. Consider what KC Muni was like for baseball during this time period. Consider how few games Mantle played. Consider that no Royal in RL hit 35 HRs in a season. No Royal has hit more than 36 in a season, ever. No Royal has ever led the league in HRs.

Mantle twice hit over 36 HRs playing his home games in 1974 and 1977 KC and never playing more than 140 games.

In 1974 he hit 38 HRs (led the league) in 138 games. He slashed 307/421/596 for a npa OPS+ of 194.

In 1977 he played in 2 more games and hit 2 more HRs (just think if he would have played in 20 more!), 40 (2nd in the league), and slashed 309/443/602 for a npa OPS+ of 177.

In his first 9 seasons, his npa OPS+ was never below 130.

In these first 9 seasons he hit 218 HRs in 3057 ABs.

He played 100 games in 1982, but the injuries and age could no longer be warded off. He hit .207 in 343 ABs and hit just 9 HRs, and retired.

In 1979 he hit 32 HRs in 106 games. Playing with fellow future HOFer Tony Campana, Mantle and his Royals won the WS.

Mantle only played in 953 games. As he picked up 227 HRs in this short time span, he slashed 283/402/530 in freaking 70's-early 80's KC and had a npa OPS+ of 161.

I can make up the narrative of a Selection Committee honoring one of the hard luck heroes from the dawn of the league, and that works fine for me. As I see how the process actually works, it was HIGHLY unlikely that Mantle would get into this HOF. If I ran the process 100 times, this might be the only time he gets in.

I did nothing to coax the numbers, they fell as they fell, and he bubbled up when he bubbled up (more importantly, he didn't bubble up previous to now).

Mantle gets in by virtue of his Black Ink being above the current league average by the absolutely slimmest margin, ever (talking hundredths of a % point on the adjusted average).

But he is in...forever. I had no expectation of again having a Hall with Willie, Mickey, and the Duke...now, I am happily 2/3 there.

Mantle is the 19th player to be inducted into this HOF and the previous one. Is the 14th RL HOFer to be inducted here. He is the 4th RL player to be inducted into both OOTP Hall of Fame.

Black Ink: 21
Gray Ink: 60
HOFm: 72
HOFs: 34

Gorilla Composite: 2.4