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Originally Posted by injury log
Those scouting reports seem to contradict each other. When I read phrases like:
"He's an average runner, a little slow out of the box and better underway"
"best suited for either corner"
I don't get the impression we're talking about someone with "lots of speed" or with plus OF range. Wilson sounds like a raw 2-tool guy to me: plus power, plus arm. He's got two average-ish tools (speed and glove) and one minus tool (bat). He's the kind of guy I'd expect to have ratings like 42/63/38 Con/Pow/Eye in OOTP with a plus arm, good RF defense, slightly above average speed, and very low current ratings. I find guys like that all the time in OOTP drafts in the 3rd round - guys who, if they reach their potentials, won't be all that exciting, but who could be regulars or stars with a bit of a potential boost.
I do agree with you completely that OOTP can do a much better job both modeling risk/reward for prospects, and of conveying risk information to users. When I open up a draft prospect's profile, it should be obvious to me if I'm looking at a high risk/high reward kind of player, or a lower ceiling guy with a better chance to get there. It takes a bit of work to figure that out right now.
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Exactly. Wilson is actually a really, really good example of what I mean when I've talked about fans getting way too excited about draft picks and greatly overrating their potential.
That tejdog1 (and quite a few other Mets fans too, to be fair) see Wilson as some kind of five tool guy shows a very large amount of rose-coloured glasses type optimism. Even the most optimistic un-biased reports about him don't say anything about five tools, or star potential.
To quote one of the reports quoted by tejdog
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he's got enough ceiling (above-average regular)
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And that's a pretty optimistic report compared to some I've seen on him.
His speed is 6.6/6.7, somewhat above average, but not plus. He's unlikely to have the range to stick in center.
As you note, he's really a 2 tool player, with major, major questions about the most important tool for a baseball player, hitting. His ability to make contact is such a question that he's highly unlikely to ever amount to anything. Even if you simply look at his absolute peak potential, you're looking at a solid power hitting corner outfielder with decent athleticism and issues making contact.
So if everything breaks right for him, he has a peak of being somewhat like the 2011-2013 version of Alfonso Soriano, but is also extremely unlikely to ever reach that peak.
Is that potential so great, that you just can't get someone like this in the 3rd to 5th rounds or later in current OOTP drafts? I really don't think so.