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Wish I could reply to the OP in detail, but it's not there anymore...
In any case, I find that in OOTP14, ratings tell a story, but that story might not be the one you expect from other games.
Over a long period, when they have time to settle, I find the predictive power is pretty good. In particular for backups, however, it gets hard to separate the signal from the noise. I have a habit of using "professional reserves" that I picked up in other games, and it's really common for one of them to go 62, 48, 37 over a few years of little use without any real change in his underlying ratings.
Over a short period, yeah - there are a fair number of players who you first notice at a 59 overall that exceed that level for a couple of years before the rating catches up, and vice versa. This is doubly true near the beginning of a new game, which I think I remember the OP said he was doing.
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