Quote:
Originally Posted by Orcin
K/BB ratio
IP / start
Quality start %
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This. FIP is good, but I think it's best to look at the components of FIP (K/9, BB/9, HR/9) individually so you can tailor your choices to your team's strengths and weaknesses. Got a bunch of butchers for infielders? A guy with a not-so-great FIP because he gives up a lot of homers might actually be a decent choice, if he's got good K/BB numbers. Etc. etc.
And for what you're looking for I doubt there's anything more important than IP. Anybody who can consistently throw 200+ innings in a season will be a godsend in the rotation, no matter how mediocre his stats or peripherals look. It's self-selecting: anybody who can go deep into the game often enough to average 6 IP/start must be a pretty decent pitcher—otherwise he'd be getting hooked. Even if he gives you pedestrian numbers himself, he saves the bullpen wear and tear and improves the team's overall performance.
Also, a very OOTP-specific strategy: look for young guys who are projected as "borderline starters," specifically guys who have great ratings all around but only two good pitches; they'll usually have one amazing fastball, one amazing breaking ball (often a slider), and one mediocre or downright terrible breaking ball (usually a curve or change). You can pick them up for peanuts (other teams will value them as relievers) and convert them into excellent starters—for a few years. As soon as their velocity starts to come down, they'll tank as starters (you can often send them back to the bullpen successfully).