Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Arnold
MLB within the next 5-10 years will switch to both leagues having a DH. At some point they'll bring up the debate, and the vast majority of NL teams will vote in favour. Just to be able to hide a guy whose defense has fallen is a big, big edge for them. And having that roster spot for flexibility - don't you think the Dodgers would love to have been able to throw Kemp or Ethier at DH last season?
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I highly, highly doubt this.
First off, nobody is going to fall for the logic that it will make everyone better off. What does it mean to say it would be an "edge" for them when they other team would have the same "edge?" You're just changing from a swordfight to a gunfight ... just because you have a more lethal weapon doesn't mean you're more likely to win.
I'd argue that for small-market teams especially, it's a bad idea; veteran sluggers are expensive,and to the extent the DH helps keep veteran sluggers in the game, it will hurt teams like SD/Pitt/Miami more often than not. Since everyone's pitching staff pretty much sucks at hitting equally, I'd argue it's about 300 AB worth of built-in competitive balance (Hmmm ... it would be interesting to study and see if the NL has been more competitively balanced in the last 40 years ... my top of the head thought is yes). Sure a DH would have helped the Dodgers ... and for precisely that reason, anyone who plays the Dodgers is that much less inclined to vote for it.
The only way it would be happen is if
1) Revenue/attendance stagnates/drops
AND
2) Scoring continues to stay down
AND
3) You could convince fans that the DH was the best way to get it up
#1 Shows no sign of happening, so it's dead right there. The owners aren't going to fix what ain't broke.
Even if we assume that #1 and #2 do happen, I don't think #3 is persuasive. There are lots of other things that could also be fiddled with -- the strike zone for the obvious one.
Simply from a marketing standpoint, it's awful -- NL fans (I am one) have spent 40 years comparing and contrasting and preferring our way, and not occasionally telling AL people how much better our way is. This is a core part of the NL's "brand" ... now you're going to ask your own fans to eat crow and admit the AL people were right all along? That sounds like Coca-Cola reformulating to be more like Pepsi in the 80s. Not a good idea.