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it may be better now, but about 3-4 iterations ago, I used to essentially always take the first pitch, and at the end of a season (playing out all the games) my team OBP was about 30-40 points ahead of second place. The explanation at the time when I iasked on these boards was what's been proposed here - that the outcome of the AB is decided on the first pitch, and taking it exponentially increased the odds of a walk.
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