[Lukas Berger]

I'm just going to do a quick thing here. You mention rounds 5-20.

Round 15 of the MLB draft from Baseball Ref starting in 2010 and going back 20 years through 1991, adding up MLB players and how good they were over their career:

Total picks: 600

less than 0 WAR: 30
0-1 WAR: 13
1-2 WAR: 5
2-5 WAR: 9
5-10 WAR: 4
10-15 WAR: 1
15-25 WAR: 3
25-50 WAR: 1
50+ WAR:

So out of 600 picks you have 68 future MLB players. 43 of whom aren't really even MLB caliber, but essentially replacement level.

So 25 genuine MLB players. Roughly one per year.

14 never even put up the equivalent of one All-Star caliber season for their entire career.

Only 9 were solid regular MLB players for any length of time and only 4 could realistically be classified as good players. Even then most were hardly great. So 0.5 per year.

The top 5 guys were:

Jake Peavy - 38.9 WAR
Bill Mueller - 23.8 WAR
Jeremy Guthrie - 20.0 WAR
Jose Cruz Jr. - 19.5 WAR
Will Venable - 12.4 WAR

So even of the top 5, only 2 of these guys are anything like stars. Guthrie, Cruz and Venable are just decent players, average starters at best, who've had fairly long careers.

And, it's worth noting Guthrie didn't sign as a 15th round pick. He went to college and became a 1st round pick. So really, he probably doesn't belong here since he'd be double counted in the first round in a full study. This is also true of a few of the other guys who put up decent numbers, including Mike Pelfrey, who's in the 2-5 WAR slot.

Do you think the results from the 15th round of OOTP's drafts for a 20 year period would yield less than four-five 10 WAR+ players, or 3 (2) good and 2 very good players? 1 good player every four or five years?

I bet OOTP would actually do better than that...