Quote:
Originally Posted by lukasberger
I like talking about this sort of thing, feel free to keep the discussion going if you'd like.
I'm just not sure what you mean by "I wasn't really talking about the guys that do become stars, but more the guys that get drafted"?
Those projectable players you mention don't really project as future MLB players, except in rare cases. Maybe they would if they absolutely reached their peak potential, but there's generally little to no chance they reach that potential.
I think some of the problem here is that team prospect sites and prospect sites in general get way too carried away about guys, and project low round picks as having far, far higher ceilings than they actually have.
That leads to the unrealistic view that these guys are genuine potential decent future MLB players, when in fact, most of them don't have more than a prayer of ever getting to that point.
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Well, here's what I mean. Let's flash back to 2009. I'll be taking a look at BA's top 200 prospects, where they went in the draft, and what they were projected to do.
Zack Von Rosenberg (another busted pick by the Bucs, sigh) was ranked 41st on BA's list of the Top 200 prospects. Here's an excerpt from his scouting report:
He has advanced command of three solid pitches: an 88-91 mph fastball with good life, a curveball with nice depth and a changeup with deception. He has a 6-foot-5, 205-pound frame and a clean delivery, so his velocity should increase, especially when he stops playing shortstop when he's not pitching.
Von Rosenberg went in the sixth round, flopped out as a starter and is now trying to revive his career in the bullpen. Here's another example. Brooks Hall was ranked 134th in that same list.
Hall has good size and at times stays tall and uses his 6-foot-5 frame to his benefit, driving an 88-92 mph fastball down in the strike zone. At his best, he hit some 94s, and he also showed the ability to spin a power slider that could be a plus pitch. His frame has projection as well.
Hall went round four. He struggled early, has gotten it back on track slightly but doesn't flash as good stuff and will be 25 midseason.
What I'm trying to see is that these kinds of players DO get drafted, but most of them bust out. But then you've got success stories, such as Wil Myers.