[Westheim]

Where are we and where are we heading?

That’s the first question one should ask himself once the roster has been cleaned of gunk. And Ricardo Huerta. Honestly, if we were in a different situation, or if he had not been compensation eligible, we would have retained Huerta. But we need every draft pick we can get, and every minimum salary player we can fit, and so we have to let Huerta go after four years of exceptional service – especially for a rule 5 guy – in which he went 22-16 with 7 SV and a 3.12 ERA in exactly 300 innings. 2.9 WAR as well.

Where are we? In last place. That’s easy. For the first time since 2000, although we have always been helplessly hopeless since the winter of ’97. Where are we heading? That’s tougher.

First, we have no money. That’s a constant, but deserves to be mentioned. In terms of our major league roster, we have a stellar bullpen, even without Huerta, and a spotty rotation. Well. Nick Brown is as ace as they get, and the Fat Cat was pretty good after he was recalled late in the season. Ralph Ford can cover his hairy butt most of the time. Garcia and Watanabe are curios cases. Although Garcia’s career numbers indicate that it won’t ever get better with him (with his best ERA mark a 3.60 in 2001 when he only pitched 35 innings, and no better than 4.01 in 2003 when he pitched at least 100 innings in a year), Watanabe’s serious lack of both stuff and stamina make him nothing more than cannon fodder, either. He has 18 major league starts, nine each in both of the last two seasons, going 4-8 with a 3.08 ERA. He can’t strike anybody out, basically, and remains at the mercy of the defense. You don’t want to be saddled with either one of those two, much less both.

Looking for depth in the minors is a fruitless endeavor. What’s left of AAA starters includes a few failed prospects (Sergio Vega, Fernando Piquero), a scrub that nobody wants to trust a pen with (Tim Webster), and Cesar Lopez, who was a piece way back in the Palacios/Ingall deal with the Knights and who walks as many as he whiffs, while allowing a generous amount of home runs, running up a 5.79 ERA in AAA last year.

The only promising guys deeper down are Brandon Teasdale, our 2005 top pick, who’s out with Tommy John surgery until about July, and interestingly Ron “Flamebeard” Melchin, our 11th rounder this year, who pitched to a shoddy 5.60 ERA in A ball, but had decent numbers except for a crippling BABIP. Those 11th rounders, huh?

In terms of the lineup, the holes are tremendous. We got zero production from the middle infielders and catchers, although Yoshi Nomura warmed up quite a bit before his third and final DL stint (which is a story in itself) and finished with a .725 OPS, with almost equal shares OBP and SLG. We should not dump him just yet, never mind that he will only be 22 on Opening Day. Also, Whitebread and his notebook say that Nomura is projected to - … what? What’s that? I can’t read that. Hey, Whitebread! – What’s that number supposed to be? – Expected runs what? – Will he hit or will he not??

Whitebread says he will be good. He says that in way too many words.

Okay, who was actually any good offensively last year? Brady and Greenman both hit over 20 dingers, but slumped badly in the second half. Both are due $1.2M this year. There’s a flat million owed to Al Martin, who had a good average, but didn’t have his power stroke all year. (All three are in a contract year, which is also true for Ralph Ford and his $1.1M allowance. The only guy in the top 5 in salaries that is not going to walk is Nick Brown, who is signed through 2009.)

Although he struck out a TON, Daniel Sharp did quite well for himself WITH THE BAT, about matching his production from the last years. He has five full seasons under his belt. By now you can safely predict him to bat .290/.365/.390 with 7 HR and 45 RBI, which is good for about 3.5 WAR, of which he loses a random amount to his fielding. His fielding was hair-raising last year, but let’s not get into that.

Bottom line is: Sharp at third, and Nomura at second, and everything else is in a state of flux. We need to see what we could get in trades, but we would like to move at least one between Brady and Greenman, plus Martin, to make room for Quebell and Mays. That would save us $2M, and with that money we could pluck another gap, maybe even two. A slugging shortstop would be something. Yamada’s legs and glove are spectacular, but he led the team in strikeouts, batting for -1.0 WAR. If we could land that slugging shortstop, Yamada would be a good backup and pinch-runner, so we want to keep that in mind.

Of course, we could just continue to scrape by for another year, do nothing, and then have the big exodus in ’06. That would drown us in draft picks in ’07 (unless those guys tank so badly that we won’t get any), but what happened the last time we drowned in draft picks, in both 1998 and 1999?

Our first and supplemental round picks in 1998 yielded the following players: Chris Roberson, Scott Boone, Frank McGeraghty, Jesus Valle, Herb Rose, and Sergio Vega. You could call it the worst draft in human history and be right with it. We picked crap throughout the rounds in 1998.

In 1999, we picked Marcos Bruno, but then missed capitally with Darwin Tyler, Matt Love, and Mike Harvey. Bob Wood came from that draft, too. Yay, happy times. Not. At least three of the next four top picks were hits (Sharp, Nomura, Casas, with Beairsto in between).

There is currently no depth whatsoever in AAA. We really need good prospects.

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I am in the process of doing the draft history, but it takes ages. I didn't do it in six years...