Quote:
Originally Posted by RonCo
Stats in the minor leagues are meaningless? Has something changed?
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sure, due to sample size and constantly changing dynamics of the players themselves due to development.
take avg for instance. it supposedly takes 990AB to normalize, and you should ignore rookie seasons. Also, that is under the expectation that the player remains essentially the same quality throughout. that is simply not the case for a developing player. one more reason stats are very cloudy in the minors.
so, an average (and most other stats) based on 200AB or even an entire season has a very low level of confidence. that means the BA he has achieved essentially tells you nothing, unless it is an extreme result.
i wouldn't argue that an .050BA, terrible k/9 and a very low walk rate after 200 ab does tell you something worthwhile, and in all liklihood ratings and development reports would have told you the same exact thing well before that time.
these ratings are plugged into an algorythm and that determines probability of success for various aspects of the game. a person that should hit well could very easily have a terrible 200AB and fool you with randomness. according to his stats he might not look like a likely promotion, but he really does deserve one. you do not run into that problem when using ratings and development reports as your metric for promotion and demotion.