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NoOne · 08-23-2015, 04:09 PM

data, data, data...

there is never anythign wrong with more information to help you make a decision - as long as you understand the level of confidence/integrity associated with each piece of information.

if due to sample size it's a +/- 20-30-50% or worse of results, you can't learn much from that. now add on to that the fact that the ability of these players can change drastically in as short as one month's time.

so, you should be very careful of putting too much importance on stats with older players, too.

if you discount their rookie year, and you have a few years of info, it can be very useful for sure.

life is not unlike the game engine, albeit significantly more sophisticated. a player has innate abilities, which we do not have access to, let alone understand all the individual parts that are important. that ability is plugged into some infinitely more complicated calculation. results do not necessarily represent actual ability.

e.g. the luck of which pitchers he faces in a given season compared to average can have a significant effect on his statistical output. when you look at just one individual there is too much luck (and things you cannot control) involved to be 100% sure of talent/ability.

if baseball hadn't been so fearful of progress, they'd be more advanced in statistical analysis to flesh out this type of thing. i am not a sabr metric fanboy. there are plenty of 'new' stats that are poorly thought out or rely on extremely subjective data. relatively speaking, it's not unlike medicine in the 1800's, when they were still putting leaches on people to combat illness.

unfortunately, life is only seemingly random. everything happens due to the various molecules and chemical reactions occuring for eternity before and after. there is no such thing as free will :P . it is an illusion. although we do not understand it all, there is a finite amount of molecules/reactions involved in everythign that occurs. chaos is actually harmony

things occur in a predictable way.

don't let that take the fun out of things, though. LoL. it's still new and surprising to you the moment it occurs.

08-23-2015, 04:09 PM	#11
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	data, data, data... there is never anythign wrong with more information to help you make a decision - as long as you understand the level of confidence/integrity associated with each piece of information. if due to sample size it's a +/- 20-30-50% or worse of results, you can't learn much from that. now add on to that the fact that the ability of these players can change drastically in as short as one month's time. so, you should be very careful of putting too much importance on stats with older players, too. if you discount their rookie year, and you have a few years of info, it can be very useful for sure. life is not unlike the game engine, albeit significantly more sophisticated. a player has innate abilities, which we do not have access to, let alone understand all the individual parts that are important. that ability is plugged into some infinitely more complicated calculation. results do not necessarily represent actual ability. e.g. the luck of which pitchers he faces in a given season compared to average can have a significant effect on his statistical output. when you look at just one individual there is too much luck (and things you cannot control) involved to be 100% sure of talent/ability. if baseball hadn't been so fearful of progress, they'd be more advanced in statistical analysis to flesh out this type of thing. i am not a sabr metric fanboy. there are plenty of 'new' stats that are poorly thought out or rely on extremely subjective data. relatively speaking, it's not unlike medicine in the 1800's, when they were still putting leaches on people to combat illness. unfortunately, life is only seemingly random. everything happens due to the various molecules and chemical reactions occuring for eternity before and after. there is no such thing as free will :P . it is an illusion. although we do not understand it all, there is a finite amount of molecules/reactions involved in everythign that occurs. chaos is actually harmony things occur in a predictable way. don't let that take the fun out of things, though. LoL. it's still new and surprising to you the moment it occurs.