[Doc_Brown]

Originally Posted by NoOne

too many relevant factors. are some more likley than others? sure.

Directly relevant factors - roughly in order of importance, imo.

- player potential
- player personality (1worth ethic, 2intelligence and to a lesser extent the
handle success/failure/forgot 3rd one ratings)
- development budget - maybe more important?
- coaches

indirect
* scouting budget - can affect efficient promotion/demotion, therefore
influences development

Also:
other various settings like TCR. possibly the scale you choose for player ratings, if it affects ai decisions (again similar to scouting budgets, this would have an indirect influence). edit: an important one is to set minor leaugeus to play high potential prospects regardless of how low their ratings are - this will ensure they get more playing time.

player development (not talent change/aging related) ends at 27 or 28 (check manual). so, don't give up on a high potential prospect until then. also, keep that in mind while sifting through the rule-5 draft pool.

some never make it. so they are the equivalent of a RL player who looks the part, possibly super athletic, is well-thought of by scouts and never makes it - happens all the time.

i'm sure you can find some site out there that tells you statistics of X-round draft choice and their probability of progressing to the MLB. it's got to be very low even for early rounds. what we feel is normal is rarely the case.

there is a thread in these forums aobut talen change randomness(tcr) setting and how it affects the amatuer draft. search for it. even if you don't want to mess with that setting, it will show you career WAR of players based on round they were drafted - in aggregate over 100years i think. if i remember, talent gets pretty barren after 2-3 rounds. it's a complete crap-shoot after a few rounds - especially if you lower TCR.

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