Quote:
Originally Posted by xgeoff
I wasn't really clear on whether it affected stealing or not. I will bring that factor into my observations and see if it changes anything.
|
it shoud results in a more honest lead-off when compared to a pitcher with a low hold ability, so i bet it affects the percentages in some way shape or form. it can be quantified to a fairly decent degree by the RL results.
the leageu totals modifiers can play a role too...
like others said, calculate league-wide SB success after the end of the season - and figure that single season total is still volatile
71.8-72.2% is a fairly good goal based on the last few decades, but you will need 50 or more years of data to know with confidence if you picked a good LTM for sb success.
i used to run long-simes to flesh this out. from what i read, the "Recalc LTM" option does a quicker 3yr type analysis to caclulate new mods based on current talent in the league? you could run that 10-20 times and average the results... i haven't tested this methed but it would be similar to 30-60 years if my memory of it's definition in the manual is accurate. this would be significantly faster than a 50-60 year sim.