View Single Post
Old 12-28-2015, 04:28 PM   #1
IStillDream
Minors (Double A)
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 167
Which trade would you make?

I haven't done a poll like this before (and I apologize if this breaks a cultural norm I'm not aware of), but I'd be interested to see how you OOTP veterans approach this type of situation.

So, it's the 2016 winter meetings, and two years undoing the disastrous moves of the 2015 offseason, the Red Sox have just paid off with a World Series win. However, some reconfiguration of my team was in order, and I'm debating whether another move is needed.

The 2015 lineup was by and large quite good--Swihart, Betts, and Boagerts all took big steps forward, Paul Goldschmidt (acquired in an all-in deal in 2015) was excellent, and after Adrian Beltre was horrific at 3rd, Miguel Sano (acquired in a prospects-for-prospect swap the prior offseason) came up and hit 14 HR in 230 AB.

The two areas of concern were a black hole at DH--Ortiz finally lost it, playing below replacement level and retiring at season's end--and the outfield, where Rusney Castillo and Hanley Ramirez were both decent with the bat but awful with the glove (-9.5 and -6.8 ZR respectively). Hanley is already gone--I shipped him, Sam Gaviglio and Jon Moscot (both waiver pickups after injuries), and RA Dickey to Detroit for Alex Gordon and a prospect.

So right now, my lineup looks like this:

RF:Mookie Betts
SS:Xander Boagerts
1B:Paul Goldschmidt
3B:Miguel Sano
DH:Jose Bautista--this is actually a risk, he posted two straight below-replacement seasons and I got him on a high-aav 1 year deal.
C-Blake Swihart
LF-Alex Gordon (whose power has declined somewhat)
CF:Rusney Castillo
2B-Dustin Pedroia

Meanwhile my rotation was excellent, to the point where, with the mid-season emergence of Archie Bradley showing ace-like stuff, Danny Duffy was relegated to my 6th best starter despite posting a 120 ERA+ and 3.3 WAR. The FA starter class is incredibly weak--Mike Leake, whose ERA+ was 96 in 2015 is probably the best option--so Duffy commands a lot of trade value. On the other hand, he was superb in the playoffs as a longman, (though I do have Matt Moore to fill the role), and my AAA rotation is poor.

Finally, the last piece of the puzzle--I have both CF prospect Manuel Margot at AAA, who's a superb fielder, but posted an 82 OPS+ at AAA, and Jackie Bradley Jr, who hit poorly in his MLB appearances before missing half the year with injury. I also have multiple very promising outfield prospects in the low minors, likely 3-4 years away.

OK, apologies for all of that preamble. If I want to upgrade from Castillo, here are the 3 deals that other teams have said they will accept:

1) Castillo, Duffy, Margot, 3B prospect Connor Kaiser (Rookie-league level, well-rounded, 3 star potential), SS prospect Ramon Beltre (S-A, excellent fielder and baserunner, questionable hitter) and an 8th round pick to MIA for Giancarlo Stanton and his monster contract.

2) Castillo, Duffy, Margot, Kaiser, Nick Longhi (high-power, low contact single-A OF) to STL for Jayson Heyward and their 2nd round pick. Heyward's deal is 4 years, $20 mil flat each year

3) Castillo, Margot, Hunter Dozier (average 25 year old MLB-ready 3B, currently at AAA), David Carpenter, Bryce Brentz, and a 7th round pick to SEA for RF Dario Pizzano and a 5th round pick. Rookie with 34 MLB games in 2015, in which he posted a .360 OBP, 114 OPS + and 0.7 WAR. High contact and Gap, very high Eye and Avoid K's. Almost no power. Solid defensive RF.

Obviously the prize here is Stanton, but I'm scared of his contract, especially the 30 million in his age 34 and 35 seasons. I don't have a ton of payroll obligations going forward, but I want to lock up and retain my young talent as it gets more expensive. Hayward would seem to represent the somewhat more affordable, very high-quality middle ground (and the pick is nice), while Pizzano is less of a known quantity but could be a star for very little money, and wouldn't cost Duffy.

Or, of course, I could stand pat a year and see who crops up in free agency a year out or at the deadline.

Last edited by IStillDream; 12-28-2015 at 04:29 PM.
IStillDream is offline   Reply With Quote