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Why my suggestion is different than yours is because I'm aware of how awful OOTP is at evaluating contracts. Regardless of how well a player does I can offer a 10 year, 1-2M deal within their first year and there's an 80% chance they'll accept. Some guys I might add 1M more, others a year or so less, but it's a bargain.
As for why I disagree with stats based, is because then if a 90-90-90 SP has a poor year or two and makes 3M in arb, he'll take a small raise, and you can lock him up for under 6-7M a year for 8 years. The game should value arb higher, I agree, but should have a minimum value for higher ratings and whatever that is + X for guys who have stats + ratings.
Whether the guy I sign is a utility player or a superstar, it doesn't matter, cause I sign guys who are mostly filled out. If a guy flames out it's a minor inconvenience, compared to if they play to their ratings or perform at a high level. An MLB regular for 1-2M over 8-9M is a ridiculous bargain, and the value far outweighs the risks.
But that's just me. I play with specific rules as I said to avoid that, because it's too easy to game the contract system.
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