Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyler87898
Thanks for the write up, but I guess I'm still a bit confused on how all the modifiers or whatever work. Guess I will have to do some long-term experimenting.
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it's complicated.. but i'm going to use an extremele simple example:
League Totals and modifier:
HR: 4000 (the value in the game stats& ai settings)
LTM: 1.100
results: 5000 home runs hit during the year.
auto-calc will reduce HR by ~20% (less than).
i could be wrong, but you'd actually use a sigma notation, if you are familiar with that math term. so you reduce 1.100 by .001 and that would subtract from the difference in home runs untill you have deducted enough: 5000- .001/1.100 * 5000, then (new total) - .001/1.099 * (new total), and so on until you reach ~4000. a simple financial calculator has this function built-in.. a graphing calculator or spreadsheet can do it, too. a guesstimate is good enough, really... because you are likely changing more than 1 interrelated LTM at a time.
the larger the difference the further short of proportional... ie 1000home run difference might be 16-18% less, not the full 20% from the quick and messy math above (1000/5000).
but, that's not really how it works in action. the LTMs are interconnected in some ways here and there. e.g. changing doubles will significantly affect triples. changing K's will increase/decrease batting average, which will have its own various effects on things realted to batting average. changing hits/singles mostly affects BABIP in your league... please note some of this could be a bit off, but it should get you thinking in the right way.
auto-calc will use last years results and adjust all of this for you. the only drawback to using auto-calc, in my opinion, is if your current league is currently very high or very low in talent.
imagine a horizontal line with a wave going around it. the area under/above the wave, relative to the line, is equal. the line is the center of it's fluctuation. if you have a league that is very high in talent and click auto-calc, you are raising that center of fluctuation. (vice versa with unusually low talent)
ugh the drawing works in preview... adding dots
.................................................. ..___
..... ___ ............. ___ ............... /.......\___ blah blah blah
__/____\ ____ /____\_____ /_______
.../............\____/.......... \____/
obviously, real life or even a mildly sophisticated simulation will not be so symmetrical and evenly distributed, but when the area above and below equaly, that is the center.
however, you will mask a low-talent league or you may decrease teh output of a high-talent league... since it's reacting to a small sample size, this is not automatic. luck (various random results of a season) could mask somethign from auto-calc etc etc...
my suggestion is to click it many times and average the results... the more you do it, the more accurate the changes relative to talent in your league. at that point you have created a baseline and relative to talent changes and league turnover, it will ebb and flow. if you were high in talent, it will mostly ebb... if you were low in talent it will mostly flow... in the middle and it will be farily even up and down.
forgot to mention: if want to see 10-15 superstars in each draft, do play with PCMs. just realize having too much talent will have its own repercussions. also, it will take an entire league turnover of newly created players to see the total effect on your league (~27+ years?).