[Westheim]

2012 PORTLAND RACCOONS – Opening Day Roster (first set shows 2011 numbers, second set overall; players with an * are off season acquisitions):

SP Nick Brown, 34, B:L, T:L (16-8, 2.76 ERA | 150-89, 2.90 ERA) – the league has the book on Nick Brown by now, which means avoiding him in April and from August onwards, and pouncing on him in the early summer, where he’s historically bad, with his “bad” still being around major league average, however; blistering stuff, and although he posted a career-worst 9.1 K/9 in ’11, that still led the CL, the third time he led in K/9 in his career; enters the year 26th all time in strikeouts and 25 K behind Kisho Saito for the franchise mark.
SP Colin Baldwin, 29, B:L, T:L (14-10, 3.20 ERA | 43-42, 3.50 ERA) – Baldwin had a good year in 2011, setting career highs in innings pitched and strikeouts, but his stuff isn’t overpowering and he’s a pretty consistent 6 K/9 pitcher.
SP Shunyo Yano *, 25, B:R, T:R (rookie) – international free agent from Japan with a 95mph cutter and four other pitches, including sharp splitters and forks; signed a 4-year deal.
SP Bill Conway, 26, B:R, T:R (15-11, 3.39 ERA | 25-30, 3.96 ERA, 2 SV) – 16 home runs allowed aside, Conway’s second full season (and first with the Coons) was a success in ’11, with numbers largely similar to Baldwin’s.
SP Hector Santos, 23, B:S, T:R (6-2, 3.50 ERA | 7-6, 4.24 ERA) – only has two partial seasons to his credit thanks to Tommy John surgery in 2010; so far the blue chip material stuff has not materialized, with under 6 K/9 in ’11, but everybody agrees that he will still get better; problem for him his fatigue, as his stamina has been reduced quite a bit after surgery.

MU Pat Slayton, 26, B:R, T:R (2-2, 2.97 ERA | 4-2, 2.78 ERA) – the former rule 5 pick is a bit prone to longer hot and cold streaks, and he can’t be relied on in tight situations, which repeatedly led to bad things in 2011; mostly used in long relief situations, and he has pitched for four outs per game for his two years in the majors.
MR Kyle Mullins, 30, B:R, T:R (1-1, 3.68 ERA | 7-7, 4.65 ERA, 5 SV) – claimed off waivers from the Cyclones last August, a pretty average right-handed reliever.
MR Manobu Sugano *, 27, B:L, T:L (rookie) – another international free agent from Japan, Sugano removes hitters efficiently with his slider, we’ve been told.
MR Lawrence Rockburn, 31, B:R, T:R (3-2, 3.03 ERA, 3 SV | 36-16, 2.77 ERA, 18 SV) – Law had his worst season outright in ’11, missing two months with injuries and being inconsistent when he was available, causing him to lose the setup job to new arrival Micah Steele.
SU Micah Steele *, 27, B:R, T:R (4-6, 3.24 ERA, 43 SV | 25-34, 2.86 ERA, 145 SV) – acquired in trade from the Loggers, Steele was a closer for the last four years, but nobody’s going to jump over Angel Casas all that quickly; the Raccoons struggled with the pen in ’11, and the acquisition of Steele should get the Coons back to pre-2010, when they had Marcos Bruno as secondary closer available in the eighth inning.
SU Ron Thrasher, 24, B:L, T:L (0-2, 1.92 ERA, 2 SV | 1-5, 1.90 ERA, 3 SV) – superficially, most numbers about Ron Thrasher look good, but he walks a batter for every inning, which is a major sore for a setup man that usually pitches in close games; with Sugano a bit of a wild card, Thrasher better protect his back and throw strikes.
CL Angel Casas, 29, B:S, T:R (2-3, 1.74 ERA, 48 SV | 16-16, 1.64 ERA, 314 SV) – after putting up a new single season saves record in 2010, Angel didn’t get a chance to double up on the effort thanks to the rest of the team in ’11, but nevertheless led the league in saves for the third time in his career; when he’s at least average, nobody can beat him.

C Dylan Alexander *, 27, B:L, T:R (.285, 25 HR, 110 RBI | .279, 25 HR, 110 RBI) – traded for with the Stars, Alexander had a monster rookie season in 2011, also hitting 29 doubles and taking the FL Platinum Stick and will get the bigger share of the Raccoons’ starting assignments behind the dish to start the season.
C Craig Bowen, 31, B:S, T:R (.217, 12 HR, 49 RBI | .232, 101 HR, 402 RBI) – four more years until Bowen’s untradable contract will be up; sad thing, he even had a share for the team’s home run lead last year, despite a rampantly atrocious performance at the plate; he did a good job controlling the running game, but that was it.

1B Adrian Quebell, 29, B:L, T:L (.267, 12 HR, 79 RBI | .294, 81 HR, 450 RBI) – his second Gold Glove aside, Quebell followed up signing a $8.88M extension by hitting a paltry .728 OPS, which was one of a thousand reasons the Raccoons went nowhere in 2011.
2B Ieyoshi Nomura, 28, B:L, T:R (.321, 6 HR, 62 RBI | .282, 19 HR, 302 RBI) – quietly put up the best offensive season of any Raccoon last year, hitting 50 XBH, walking more than he struck out, played very good defense, ended up third in batting in the CL, and justifiedly made his first All Star team.
2B/SS/1B Michael Palmer, 29, B:R, T:R (.260, 5 HR, 46 RBI | .289, 20 HR, 217 RBI) – his first season in Portland won him his first Gold Glove, but he also hit almost 40 points under his career average, while sharing Yoshi’s achievement of walking more than he struck out.
1B/3B/2B Jon Merritt, 35, B:R, T:R (.246, 5 HR, 59 RBI | .268, 52 HR, 700 RBI) – had his second-worst offensive season, second-worst defensive season, two injuries, and a 10-game suspension in 2011; it might actually get worse, but only if he gets run over by the Pony Express.
1B/3B/2B/SS Manuel Gutierrez, 31, B:L, T:R (.250, 1 HR, 15 RBI | .256, 10 HR, 77 RBI) – his main qualification is defensive adeptness all around the infield; in a pinch, he can also pinch-run; he was a waiver claim in 2007, and so far has passed through waivers several times while in the Raccoons organization, but spent the entire 2011 season on the major league roster, gobbling up 156 AB.

LF/1B Matt Pruitt, 28, B:L, T:R (.228, 9 HR, 58 RBI | .284, 45 HR, 303 RBI) – suffered through catastrophically bad luck last season, but we should also say goodbye to the idea that he might turn into a prolific power hitter with a .746 OPS after some 2,400 PA.
LF/CF Tomas Castro, 28, B:S, T:R (.283, 5 HR, 37 RBI | .300, 67 HR, 382 RBI) – continues to be eaten up by injuries small and big and gross, and his offensive performance continues to suffer as well; will be a free agent and we can’t wait to get his wrecked body off the roster...
LF/RF/CF John Alexander *, 32, B:L, T:L (.240, 6 HR, 30 RBI | .289, 163 HR, 778 RBI) – the Raccoons try to force the issue and generate another Luke Black miracle in Alexander the Second, who led the FL in RBI twice with the Stars before vanishing on the Miners’ bench. On a cheap free agent deal, we’re hoping for some 2008 magic, when he smashed 80 extra base hits.
LF/CF/RF Jason Seeley, 25, B:L, T:R (.247, 6 HR, 35 RBI | .247, 6 HR, 35 RBI) – got a starting assignment in connection with the Jose Morales trade in July of 2011, and hit for 19 extra base hits in under 200 AB before shearing off a paw and missing the last month of the season; since we’re in a squeeze for room among outfielders, him and Castro might get the shortest end of starting assignments unless John Alexander turns out to be a dud.
RF/LF Keith Ayers, 29, B:R, T:R (.227, 8 HR, 35 RBI | .255, 24 HR, 122 RBI) – has some pop, but isn’t overly reliable, and frequently out at home; has there ever been a player that continued to find employment because he was a *right*-handed batter?
1B/LF/2B/CF/RF/SS Sandy Sambrano *, 24, B:S, T:R (.309, 2 HR, 42 RBI | .286, 3 HR, 73 RBI) – super utility player that can be thrown almost anywhere on the field, and also has excellent speed to find employment as pinch-runner – with both qualities obviously combining well.

On disabled list: Nobody.

Otherwise unavailable: Nobody.

Other roster movement:
SS/3B Dave Roudabush, 26, B:R, T:R (.158, 2 HR, 6 RBI | .180, 2 HR, 8 RBI) – waived and DFA’ed; not many skills to rave about, not even defensively.
LF/1B Jerry Saenz, 26, B:L, T:L (.222, 3 HR, 5 RBI | .222, 3 HR, 5 RBI) – waived and DFA’ed; has some power, but also cuts holes into the air, and doesn’t defend his position very well.
LF/RF/CF Pat White, 29, B:S, T:R (.175, 0 HR, 9 RBI | .286, 12 HR, 141 RBI) – waived and DFA’ed; good defense outfielder, but he’s not hit well in either of his two Portland seasons.
CF Santiago Trevino, 29, B:L, T:L (.263, 0 HR, 2 RBI | .234, 5 HR, 74 RBI) – waived and DFA’ed; definitely a terrific defensive centerfielder, but that is his only skill…

Opening day lineup:
Vs. RHP: CF Castro – 2B Nomura – LF Pruitt – 1B Quebell – C D. Alexander – 3B Merritt – RF J. Alexander – SS Palmer – P Brown
(Vs. LHP: 2B Nomura – 3B Merritt – LF Pruitt – 1B Quebell – RF Ayers – SS Palmer – CF Sambrano – C D. Alexander – P Brown)

Finding a sound lineup against left-handed pitchers continues to be extremely difficult. Maybe Craig Bowen will get all assignments against left-handers, although he’s a natural left-handed batter and his splits are routinely pretty gross. Keith Ayers is all giggles at the roster composition, though.

OFF SEASON CHANGES:

For the second year in a row the Raccoons were very active early and had added four warm bodies by the winter meetings and then simply stopped getting things together – and the contract that Yano signed was on his table before the meetings, too. Although, to a big part, the main issue was that we tried to trade all the guys that are now on waivers, plus Bowen and Castro, and no takers could be found. We do have money left over to make a significant acquisition (think Ron Alston-sized) should we be close in the middle of the season, although let’s be honest, where should the prospects involved come from? More on that below.

Top 5: Crusaders (+11.5), Warriors (+9.0), Scorpions (+6.4), Raccoons (+5.7), Pacifics (+5.2)
Bottom 5: Blue Sox (-8.2), Stars (-9.1), Indians (-9.8), Gold Sox (-10.9); Wolves (-12.7)

PREDICTION TIME:

My streak of missing by five games on the Raccoons pre-season ended in 2011, when I missed by four, as they couldn’t go 92-70 and ended up 88-74 with the pitching better than expected, but the hitters collectively being minced and reduced to bratwurst.

The team still consist of much of the same personnel as before, with the additions consisting of a closer to shore up the eighth inning, and aside from that a few hopes and maybes.

Although there are upsides, too. It’s about mathematically impossible for Matt Pruitt to put up another .241 BABIP season, and injuries played a big part of why 2011 didn’t work out. Our September starting outfields came close to NC-17 snuff movies. But sometimes hopes are hopes, and hopes will get dashed more often than not. Pitching and defense can only do so much, and unless somebody breaks out in a major way (John Alexander?), this season could get quite ugly.

Prediction: the Raccoons will fall short of the playoffs, and it won’t be close. The big-money, star-laden Crusaders will likely motor right through the division into the playoffs, and the Raccoons might be beaten by as much as 15 games. A 85-77 finish might seem likely.

PLAYER DEVELOPMENT:

The Raccoons were just inside the upper half of minor league systems throughout most of the last decade, but then had a great migration off the prospect list during 2010, leaving their system to crash into last place before the 2011 season when they had only three ranked prospects, and none inside the top 100. Of those three, two lost their ranks during the last 12 months, but reinforcements have come, but the Coons’ top prospect will be Japanese international free agent Shunyo Yano, who’s not really here to lighten up the prospect scoreboard (or any scoreboard). Overall, our system fits just inside the upper half again, 11th overall.

Jason Bergquist, who had been taken by the Wolves in the rule 5 draft, was returned to the Raccoons on Opening Day, but is not ranked.

10th (new) – ML SP Shunyo Yano, 25 – international free agent
24th (new) – AAA OF Ricardo Carmona, 20 – international discovery by Capitals, acquired in trade with Mike Cook, Jason Bergquist, Joe O’Brian, and Gary Dupes for Jose Morales and Luis Beltran
79th (new) – A SP David Tingley, 19 – 2011 first round pick by the Raccoons
146th (-23) – AAA SP Rich Hood, 25 – 2009 first round pick by the Raccoons
148th (new) – AA SP Gary Dupes, 22 – 2008 fourth round pick by Cyclones, acquired in trade with Ricardo Carmona, Mike Cook, Jason Bergquist, and Joe O’Brian for Jose Morales and Luis Beltran
156th (new) – AA RF Mike Cook, 21 – 2008 first round pick by Capitals, acquired in trade with Ricardo Carmona, Jason Bergquist, Gary Dupes, and Joe O’Brian for Jose Morales and Luis Beltran
181st (new) – A SP Dan Moon, 20 – 2010 supplemental round pick by the Raccoons

The farm top 10 are completed by AA SP Chris Brown, INT SP Ricky Martinez, and AAA CL Francisquo Bocanegra

The top prospect overall is the Buffaloes’ AA LF/RF/3B Saverio Piepoli, who might combine all five tools once he’s matured. The top 3 are completed by SAL AAA SP Jaden Joseph and NAS AA SS Andrew Showalter.

Next: a look back at draft disaster of years past, and then the first pitch, which will be delivered in hostile territory!