[Westheim]

2013 PORTLAND RACCOONS – Opening Day Roster (first set shows 2012 numbers, second set overall; players with an * are off season acquisitions):

SP Nick Brown, 35, B:L, T:L (16-8, 2.36 ERA | 166-97, 2.85 ERA) – the league has the book on Nick Brown by now, which means avoiding him in April and from August onwards, and pouncing on him in the early summer, where he’s historically bad, with his “bad” still being around major league average, however; Brownie claimed the franchise strikeout record, 2,500+ K total, and a spot in the top 20 of all time strikeout artistes (2,545 K and 18th actually) all in 2012, while putting up his best ever single season ERA at age 34. In worrying news he has a player option for 2014 and much to ask for in additional money if he gets even remotely close to his ’11 season.
SP Daniel Dickerson *, 35, B:R, T:R (17-9, 3.98 ERA | 146-124, 3.35 ERA, 1 SV) – grizzled veteran on a huge contract that can turn sour at any minute giving his injury history; if he ever shakes his arm twice after delivering a pitch, we’ve just burned a million bucks – or three. Dickerson was never much of a strikeout pitcher but has marvelous control and generates insane amounts of groundballs, being taken deep ten times in a season only twice – including 2012.
SP Colin Baldwin, 30, B:L, T:L (5-4, 4.09 ERA | 48-46, 3.55 ERA) – Baldwin is looking forward to bouncing back to his normal steady self after missing more than half of the 2012 season to a ruptured finger tendon.
SP Hector Santos, 24, B:S, T:R (12-11, 3.52 ERA | 19-17, 3.74 ERA) – did quite well most of the time in his first full season in the majors, including a 5 K/BB and holding opposing batters to less than a hit per inning despite merely middling defense behind him. The biggest obstacle between him and greatness could be his total lack of longevity, holding him to five innings in numerous occasions in 2012.
SP Rich Hood, 26, B:L, T:L (7-8, 3.94 ERA | 7-8, 3.94 ERA) – debuted midseason after injuries and ineffectiveness decimated the Raccoons’ rotation and never was demoted again, although his performance was not without spots here and there. Has to pick up on the meager 1.8 K/BB, and should have the stuff to do that in his sophomore year.

MU Bill Conway, 27, B:R, T:R (2-5, 6.71 ERA | 27-35, 4.28 ERA, 2 SV) – turned into a total dud in ’12, getting kicked from the rotation in May and occasionally recalled for a spot start or long relief work, none of which worked out in any way as he allowed a home run every five innings while walking everything that held still long enough.
MU Pat Slayton, 27, B:R, T:R (2-2, 1.93 ERA, 1 SV | 6-4, 2.45 ERA, 1 SV) – some people never shake off that rule 5 smell, and Slayton is one of those; don’t get fooled by the ERA, he is in no way a reliable pitcher and should be held away from situations with runners on base or tender leads in late innings at all costs.
MR Josh Gibson, 27, B:R, T:R (5-0, 1.91 ERA | 6-2, 3.40 ERA) – drafted originally as a position player, Gibson made his debut in ’10 and was on the roster for most of the ’11 and ’12 seasons, but will be on the Opening Day roster for the first time after handling late-inning assignments with care in the second half of last season and not allowing an earned run in his last 26 appearances.
MR Ron Thrasher, 25, B:L, T:L (8-4, 2.76 ERA, 1 SV | 9-9, 2.26 ERA, 4 SV) – superficially, most numbers about Ron Thrasher look good, but he walks a batter every other inning, which is a major sore for a wannabe-setup man; oh look, he’s not a setup man anymore!
SU Manobu Sugano, 28, B:L, T:L (4-2, 1.78 ERA, 2 SV | 4-2, 1.78 ERA, 2 SV) – the only of the two Japanese international additions last winter that is still with the team, Sugano did a great job in relief and pushed Thrasher out of the setup role.
SU Hoshi Watanabe *, 38, B:R, T:R (3-2, 2.81 ERA | 39-18, 3.88 ERA, 12 SV) – free agent addition that has been much better in his 30s than in his 20s and that is supposed to get us bridged to a better time and a long-term solution for the right-handed setup role that was a nightmare in 2012 with Micah Steele having his dirty paws in play.
CL Angel Casas, 30, B:S, T:R (1-3, 1.87 ERA, 49 SV | 17-19, 1.67 ERA, 363 SV) – mostly infallible killer of opposing batters; unfortunately he knows it and is in a contract year.

C Dylan Alexander, 28, B:L, T:R (.245, 22 HR, 76 RBI | .265, 47 HR, 186 RBI) – had a bad first half that saw Craig Bowen – who didn’t have much of a good first half either – get a lot of at-bats and more than one third of starting assignments in 2012, but D-Alex had a better second half and finally picked up the power then, finishing with 22 homers. More of that please.
C Craig Bowen, 32, B:S, T:R (.234, 8 HR, 30 RBI | .233, 109 HR, 432 RBI) – three more years until Bowen’s untradable contract will be up; he will occasionally whack one, but pays for that with 8 K on average, and hasn’t batted .250 since his FIRST stint in Portland.

1B Adrian Quebell, 30, B:L, T:L (.293, 22 HR, 99 RBI | .294, 103 HR, 549 RBI) – rebounded nicely from a .728 OPS in 2011 to post a .845 OPS mark in ’12, and still shows the finest defense, but that extra-power potential we once hoped for hasn’t materialized; those 22 homers he hit in 2012 were a career high, and he bought it with millions of double plays, some of those fatal to the Raccoons’ fate last year.
2B Ieyoshi Nomura, 29, B:L, T:R (.308, 8 HR, 82 RBI | .286, 27 HR, 384 RBI) – another irreplaceable player in a contract year in ’13 (and hideously cheap at $750k!), Yoshi has been close to .400 OBP rates the last two seasons and posted .829 OPS marks both times. He also put up a new career-high in extra-base hits with 53. I have a bad feeling that trying to maintain him will break the bank come fall.
2B/SS/1B Michael Palmer, 30, B:R, T:R (.286, 3 HR, 58 RBI | .288, 23 HR, 275 RBI) – as steady as he goes, you tend to not even notice him until he’s gone missing with an injury, like he did for 34 games in ’12, leading the Raccoons to patch around the hole in the lineup with the most ridiculous outcasts they can find, including on the fatal final weekend of the season.
1B/3B/2B Jon Merritt, 36, B:R, T:R (.264, 8 HR, 53 RBI | .268, 60 HR, 753 RBI) – playing out the string of his career, Jon Merritt had a perfectly decent 2012, but the blinding triples power (18 triples in ’10 and 149 in his career) is gone now as those old legs have gone heavy. He has a player option for 2014.
1B/2B/3B/SS Ken Rodgers *, 32, B:L, T:R (.251, 1 HR, 17 RBI | .252, 60 HR, 386 RBI) – signed as free agent, taking the spot occupied by Manuel Gutierrez, El Salvador’s finest, for years. Plays sound defense all around, and has a bat that even aspires to league average.
3B/SS Walt Canning, 27, B:R, T:R (.050, 0 HR, 1 RBI | .238, 2 HR, 23 RBI) – hasn’t much going for him than being a late-inning defensive replacement for Jon Merritt, since the bats has gotten worse with every cup of coffee.

1B/LF/2B/CF/RF/SS Sandy Sambrano, 25, B:S, T:R (.276, 0 HR, 24 RBI | .283, 3 HR, 97 RBI) – the super utility that spent half the season on the DL in ’12 has been promoted to starting leftfielder, but can really sub anywhere except behind the dish if the going gets tough; on-base wonder with speed (24 SB in just 90 G, 62 GS last year!), should make for the ideal leadoff man.
LF/CF/RF Ricardo Carmona, 21, B:L, T:R (.288, 0 HR, 19 RBI | .288, 0 HR, 19 RBI) – … while the future leadoff man is going to be huddled in the #2 slot and starting in centerfield to start the year. Carmona was the big piece in the Jose Morales trade with the Capitals in 2011, and everything points to him being a future star, even though he won’t hit for power all that much. He’s 1,926 hits off the franchise mark held by Neil Reece.
RF/LF Mike Bednarski *, 26, B:R, T:R (.277, 22 HR, 75 RBI | .278, 56 HR, 244 RBI) – acquired from the Aces, Bednarski hit 48 homers the last two years combined, so naturally great things are expected of him. He’s the new starting rightfielder. A murderer’s arm aside, defense is not his strong suit.
LF/1B Matt Pruitt, 29, B:L, T:R (.294, 6 HR, 65 RBI | .286, 51 HR, 368 RBI) – silently got struck off the list of potential power sources last year and now has merely ten homers per year if averaged out to 162 games, which he even got close to even once: in ’12. Also loses his starting job to the younger guys.
LF/RF/CF John Alexander, 33, B:L, T:L (.264, 13 HR, 68 RBI | .287, 176 HR, 846 RBI) – totally not the second coming of Luke Black, John Alexander was decent, but not great, and not even good, really, but he remains cheap in the second year of his contract that was supposed to rebuild value for him, which it probably hasn’t and won’t, since he’s on the bench to start the year.

On disabled list: Nobody.

Otherwise unavailable: Nobody.

Other roster movement:
SP/MR Richard Williams, 33, B:S, T:R (4-1, 4.48 ERA, 2 SV | 81-79, 4.80 ERA, 3 SV) – waived and DFA’ed; was a desperate trade addition with the Loggers last July and didn’t do too well overall.
C Tom McNeela, 24, B:L, T:R (.000, 0 HR, 0 RBI | .263, 0 HR, 12 RBI) – waived and DFA’ed; middling defensively, not a real game changer offensively, not that we could get rid of Craig Bowen anyway…
SS/3B Dave Roudabush, 27, B:R, T:R (.333, 0 HR, 1 RBI | .232, 2 HR, 9 RBI) – waived and DFA’ed (like last year); not many skills to rave about, not even defensively.
RF/LF Keith Ayers, 30, B:R, T:R (.185, 6 HR, 21 RBI | .241, 30 HR, 143 RBI) – waived and DFA’ed; had a real nightmare season with complete uselessness at the plate.

Opening day lineup:
Vs. RHP: LF Sambrano – CF Carmona – 2B Nomura – 1B Quebell – RF Bednarski – C D. Alexander – SS Palmer – 3B Merritt – P Brown
(Vs. LHP: LF Sambrano – SS Palmer – 2B Nomura – RF Bednarski – 1B Quebell – 3B Merritt – CF Carmona – C D. Alexander – P Brown)

The mess starts here, as the Raccoons have not managed to get another right-handed outfielder to balance the lineup against left-handed pitching. And they have been horrible against left-handed pitching…

OFF SEASON CHANGES:

This offseason went just like the last one and almost like the one before that. The Raccoons were active early, added a few big names in Dickerson and Bednarski, and then just stopped at all at the winter meetings. Like mentioned above, the roster is still unbalanced when it comes to the handedness of batters, and that was a major problem against left-handed pitching in 2012 and even before that. Despite the months of inactivity at the end of the winter, the Raccoons were declared by BNN to have “won” the offseason by WAR gains.

Top 5: Raccoons (+6.9), Capitals (+6.6), Titans (+6.0), Stars (+5.7), Warriors (+4.9)
Bottom 5: Miners (-4.6), Bayhawks (-5.5), Loggers (-6.0), Aces (-8.9), Blue Sox (-10.0)

PREDICTION TIME:

So the Raccoons were markedly better than I gave them credit for, but a big part in 2012 was the way they OWNED the Crusaders, beating them 15-3, which completely crippled them and helped the Raccoons lift up to a 93-69 finish, eight games better than anticipated.

The team had obvious shortcomings. The rotation was in a state of flux for much of the season if you ignore Brown and Santos, who just quietly trudged along, and the bullpen couldn’t cover the gap between all the middle relievers and Angel Casas, while injures decimated a lineup that couldn’t bring home a runner on third with no outs in the first place. Plus, their cleanup hitter was the master of double plays. Somehow a 21-7 August catapulted the Raccoons to the front, but they extinguished in unfortunate fashion in the final week, falling short to the vile beasts of the North.

This year, the only major addition with a stick is Bednarski, the newest hope of rekindling the Luke Black production we got in the late 2000s, but Bednarski is a lot younger and might have space to grow. But the friendly confines of Portland haven’t been friendly to their own team for a few years now and several ordinary power positions are played by people without much power at all. Two starting outfielders have not hit a home run as a Raccoon.

We expect a lot of Ricardo Carmona, and it might be a bit much for those small shoulders. Remember how Yoshi Nomura debuted at 20 and struggled endlessly. This also brings us to the topic of free agency. Once more the Raccoons are acting in a sense of urgency, since so many of their key players will be or might be free agents seven months from now. We have a million dollars plus change in the coffers to make a move in the season to address issues, but I fear there could be too many issues to cover with a million and change.

Best guess: the Raccoons continue to fail against left-handed pitching and will drop games against weak southpaws all the time, contributing to them coming up short in the North to whomever, finishing 88-74 and seven games out. Crusaders, Titans, Elks could all be in the mix again.

PLAYER DEVELOPMENT:

The Raccoons’ farm was ranked 11th last season with some artificial inflation by the signing of international free agent Shunyo Yano. Well, that has deflated by now, and most of their seven ranked prospects from last year have also dropped off the list: #10 Shunyo Yano (service time), #24 Ricardo Carmona (service time), #79 David Tingley (not ranked anymore), #146 Rich Hood (service time), #156 Mike Cook (traded), and #181 Dan Moon (not ranked anymore);

The Raccoons again have seven ranked players, but have dropped from 11th to 18th among all teams.

17th (new) – AAA SP Jonathan Toner, 22 – 2009 supplemental round pick by Cyclones, acquired in trade for Shunyo Yano
40th (+108) – AAA SP Gary Dupes, 23 – 2008 fourth round pick by Cyclones, acquired in trade with Ricardo Carmona, Mike Cook, Jason Bergquist, and Joe O’Brian for Jose Morales and Luis Beltran
128th (new) – A OF Edgar Hernandez, 20 – international discovery by Whitebread
137th (new) – AAA SP Jeff Magnotta, 19 – 2012 first round pick by the Raccoons
141st (new) – INT 2B/SS/LF Tony Viera, 18 – international discovery by Juan Calderón
187th (new) – AA SP Andy Hackney, 24 – 2009 eleventh round pick by the Raccoons
189th (new) – AAA 2B Jason Bergquist, 23 – 2008 supplemental round pick by Cyclones, acquired in trade with Ricardo Carmona, Mike Cook, Gary Dupes, and Joe O’Brian for Jose Morales and Luis Beltran

The farm top 10 are completed by INT SP Ricky Martinez, INT SP Vic Mercado, AAA MR Francisquo Bocanegra.

The top overall prospect in the league is last year’s #3, NAS SS Andrew Showalter, who made his debut late in 2012 and is on their Opening Day roster. The top 5 are completed by BOS A RF Michael Matos, SAL SP Jaden Joseph (#2 last year), TOP AAA LF/RF/3B Saverio Piepoli (#1 last year), and DEN AAA SP Willis Sanguino.

Next: first pitch.