Quote:
Originally Posted by TribeFanInNC
Here is an article on Fangraphs about prospects and success rates that kinda sums up my general view. Unless they are truly top 10 guys, prospects wash out a lot, even guys like Frazier and Bradley and Aiken. I'm willing to get 100 known innings of MLB quality for one of those guys considering there is >50% chance the prospect gives you nothing at MLB level.
Again though, I'm willing to admit this could be a terrible idea too. Easy for me to armchair GM with no consequences. I also think the trade where we got Ubaldo was a good move too, so plenty of grains of salt to take this with.
EDIT: oops, forgot the link.... Did the Red Sox Really Overpay for Drew Pomeranz? | FanGraphs Baseball |
I guess I am hesitant to trade off too many of these guys because that is the only way a team like the Indians can survive, because they don't have the resources to go out and spend themselves out of bad trades. I agree that you never know if a prospect will pan out, I mean we have seen our share recently (Andy Marte, Matt LaPorta.....) and yes I know that all teams have guys that fit that bill, but some of them can throw money at that mistake and fix it, teams like the Indians have to ride it out and we get those 70 win seasons.
That being said, I know they have to make a move to improve the bullpen and now it looks like go get another outfielder since Brantley is getting another MRI on his shoulder and they are saying he could be shut down the rest of the year. So I would be ok with them dealing one of those top guys because it looks like they finally have restocked the farm with talent so if the guy the dealt away becomes a good player, there is more of a chance that there is someone else that can come up and be just as good.
I don't want to see another Brian Giles for Ricardo Rincon trade happen. And I think the Ubaldo trade worked out well in the end for the Indians...sure Pomeranz has pitched well this year, but it took him a few years and two organizations to maybe figured it out.