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Old 08-08-2016, 05:37 AM   #7
BigRed75
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I use 18 to simulate that. If you think that in a perfect world, the expansion team would take the 16th, 20th and 24th best players in an organisation for expansion. That "averages" to three 20th-best players.

I know what you're thinking - to get an average of three 20th-best players, you'd need to take the 19th, 20thand 21st best players, which also averages out to 20. And you'd be right, except for two things:

1. Not every team lost three players. This caused the distribution to go upwards.

2. The world isn't perfect.

Call it a little brute-force calculating. I've done a ton of sims with it and I'm happy with the results. I get expansion teams that make the playoffs in three years, win the World Series in six, and go 15+ years without even sniffing the postseason. Just like real life.
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Last edited by BigRed75; 08-08-2016 at 05:39 AM.
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