[Westheim]

2015 PORTLAND RACCOONS – Opening Day Roster (first set shows 2014 numbers, second set overall; players with an * are off season acquisitions):

SP Nick Brown, 37, B:L, T:L (15-7, 2.70 ERA | 183-108, 2.84 ERA) – the flash is gone with Nick Brown, who came back from injury with much less velocity, stuff, and most notably strikeouts. Mastering the groundball still carried him to a third-place finish in the ERA race in the Continental League, but how many more Opening Day assignments will he have ahead of him?
SP Jonathan Toner, 24, B:R, T:R (18-6, 2.36 ERA | 23-11, 2.65 ERA) – here was a pleasant breakout season if there ever was one as Jonny Toner – while snubbed for Pitcher of the Year – won 18 games and the CL ERA title while striking out 205 and pitching five shutouts. One might have great fun for a long time with him, although there are concerns over his long-term health since he’s been dealing with shoulder and elbow woes since high school.
SP Hector Santos, 26, B:S, T:R (17-8, 3.07 ERA | 43-36, 3.63 ERA) – reached 200 K for the first time in 2014; his stuff is elite and paired with great control, as he walked only 29 batters in 202 innings, for a mildly obscene K/BB ratio of almost seven. His issue is the long ball – whenever someone manages to hit his hammers, they usually hit it real hard. He led the league in home runs allowed in 2013 (30!), and still gave up 20 last season.
SP Bill Conway, 29, B:R, T:R (11-7, 2.95 ERA | 46-52, 3.88 ERA, 2 SV) – Conway was a bit of a surprise story in 2014, leading the CL in ERA before collapsing in September; when he’s not overachieving on a ridiculous level, he’s a bit more of a mundane right-hander; also an extraordinarily poor hitter.
SP Daniel Dickerson, 37, B:R, T:R (8-8, 4.43 ERA | 154-133, 3.40 ERA, 1 SV) – the signing of this grizzled veteran with the unfortunate injury history was a gamble in the first place, and while Dickerson managed 128 more innings in 2014 than in 2013, when he literally dropped in his second start of the season, the results were still wildly disappointing; he’s been relegated to the back of the rotation because nobody wanted a piece of his ludicrous $3.2M contract.

MR Tom Constantino, 29, B:R, T:R (5-7, 4.24 ERA | 13-21, 4.96 ERA, 1 SV) – ordinary right-hander, capable of long relief, but he was bruised badly when he made four starts in place of Dickerson early in 2014, which did most of the damage to his ERA.
MR Marcos Bruno *, 39, B:R, T:R (2-0, 1.98 ERA | 57-54, 2.95 ERA, 94 SV) – still armed with a venomous slider, Bruno rejoins the Raccoons with high hopes of a productive seventh-inning assignment for the veteran, mindful that none of the other late second tours of duty for right-handed relievers among long-time Coons have ever brought much joy (Martinez, Lagarde, Huerta…).
MR Chris Mathis, 28, B:R, T:R (3-1, 2.63 ERA, 1 SV | 7-2, 3.41 ERA, 2 SV) – some only get good enough at age 27, as Mathis excelled after a mid-season callup and never went away again with a K/9 over nine and a K/BB over eight. His 2014 ERA was three runs higher, but we sure hope he has actually turned a corner.
MR Manobu Sugano, 30, B:L, T:L (2-4, 1.91 ERA | 11-7, 2.36 ERA, 6 SV) – was almost perfect in being used almost exclusively against nasty left-handed batters in 2014, while also leading the majors in appearances with 80, pitching 61.1 innings. Since coming over from Japan, Sugano has struck out 70+ in all of his three seasons, but has also walked 30+ in each year, which is his main problem; he generates exceptionally poor contact usually.
SU Zack Entwistle, 29, B:R, T:R (3-2, 2.48 ERA, 4 SV | 27-34, 3.39 ERA, 54 SV) – acquired mid-season from the Aces along Ron Richards, Entwistle slides into the setup slot for the 2015 season after Ron Sakellaris has been dealt away. Entwistle had a 1.57 ERA with the Raccoons and struck out 74 batters in 76 innings in 2014.
SU Ron Thrasher, 27, B:L, T:L (4-3, 2.69 ERA, 4 SV | 15-13, 2.41 ERA, 9 SV) – blessed with an executioner’s stuff, but saddled with a drunkard’s control, Thrasher – like Sugano – has struck out 70+ in every full season, while missing 30 walks only once (in 2011). He drives hitters of all handednesses crazy, however, making him a great choice for setup duties or a closing assignment against mean left-handers, which will be a secondary job for him in 2015 with Angel Casas not knowing whether to go drunk or broke.
CL Angel Casas, 32, B:S, T:R (1-2, 2.76 ERA, 42 SV | 18-21, 1.77 ERA, 410 SV) – after missing almost all of 2013 with an injury, Angel had a horrendous first six weeks in 2014, and while he recovered well in the second half of the year, there are doubts over his ability going forward. He knows it, too, and he actually makes only 50% of his 2014 salary after signing another 1-year deal, as these 1-year deals get increasingly cheap...

C Dylan Alexander, 30, B:L, T:R (.259, 17 HR, 61 RBI | .271, 84 HR, 315 RBI) – not a bad defensive catcher, not a bad offensive catcher, but we would sure wish he could come through more often.
C Danny Margolis, 24, B:R, T:R (.262, 1 HR, 7 RBI | .262, 1 HR, 7 RBI) – made his major league debut after Raúl Hernandez had been traded and has yet to do anything to greatly annoy management; very strong arm, even for a catcher.

1B Stanley Murphy, 35, B:R, T:R (.258, 21 HR, 78 RBI | .291, 243 HR, 995 RBI) – Murphy was not any more effective than his predecessor Adrian Quebell in driving in runners, and batted a very sub-par .700 OPS after the mid-season trade with the Pacifics. In addition to that, his defense isn’t much, he’s older, more expensive, and will depart via free agency after the season.
1B/LF/2B/CF/RF/SS Sandy Sambrano, 27, B:S, T:R (.265, 0 HR, 59 RBI | .274, 7 HR, 205 RBI) – Sandy combines versatility with a steady singles bat and great speed; he has amassed 144 stolen bases already. Since the outfield has seen the addition of Ron Richards, he gets moved in to play the majority of the games at second base, but he might see frequent use elsewhere to give people days off.
SS/2B/3B Ronnie McKnight *, 24, B:L, T:R (.412, 0 HR, 2 RBI | .432, 0 HR, 7 RBI) – since we couldn’t get an elite offensive shortstop, we took steps to acquire an elite defensive shortstop, Concie Guerin-style. McKnight has only 44 major league at-bats, but the scouting report looks good enough.
3B Matt Nunley, 24, B:L, T:R (.285, 8 HR, 53 RBI | .271, 8 HR, 57 RBI) – Rookie of the Year Matt Nunley enters his sophomore season unchallenged at the hot corner, where he played strong defense before coming apart in September for no discernible reason.
2B Jason Bergquist, 25, B:R, T:R (.249, 3 HR, 29 RBI | .243, 3 HR, 32 RBI) – nobody quite expected Bergquist to replace Yoshi Nomura in production, but after a strong April (in which he won ROTM honors), he quickly degraded to basically replacement level and in the end saw little playing time, which is something that will continue this season.
3B/SS Walt Canning, 29, B:R, T:R (.230, 1 HR, 17 RBI | .253, 7 HR, 72 RBI) – not much of a batter or shortstop, Walt Canning wins a roster spot mainly by merit of batting right-handed, which had him stay on the roster at the expense of Palmer Taylor.

RF/LF Ron Richards, 29, B:L, T:L (.276, 26 HR, 90 RBI | .252, 59 HR, 233 RBI) – one of many mid-season acquisitions to spark the offense, Richards was the only one that didn’t significantly reduce his output upon arrival, batting roughly at the same rate as he had in Las Vegas. He is a considerable home run threat but lacks speed and will sometimes not get a basic double because of his slow pace. His defensive range is also limited and he is a prime candidate for late-inning defensive substitution.
LF/CF/RF Ricardo Carmona, 23, B:L, T:R (.345, 6 HR, 60 RBI | .326, 9 HR, 136 RBI) – the Jose Morales bonanza a few years ago has already worked out when you look at this young Panamanian pony, racing along the beach and gnawing through opposing pitchers. Cookie won the CL stolen base title for the second time in as many full seasons in the Bigs and also made a charge for the batting title, ultimately falling short against Martin Ortíz. Only 23 years old, he has already stolen 111 bases. The only thing is that his defense in center is not what Neil Reece offered in his prime, but we are totally happy with the package as-is.
RF/LF Mike Bednarski, 28, B:R, T:R (.292, 23 HR, 88 RBI | .279, 92 HR, 395 RBI) – Bednarski put up his best single-season OPS in 2014 with a .837 mark, but still was the source of constant disappointment, one of the forerunners of team-wide RISP futility. Luis Reya is breathing down his neck.
LF/RF Luis Reya *, 35, B:L, T:L (.303, 9 HR, 82 RBI | .291, 106 HR, 751 RBI) – acquired from the Pacifics princely from Ron Sakellaris, Reya gives the Raccoons overall a very experienced and potent bat off the bench, and Mike Bednarski in particular somebody to watch and push him.
LF/RF/CF Jason Seeley, 28, B:L, T:R (.263, 5 HR, 38 RBI | .238, 17 HR, 105 RBI) – if nothing else, the mildly talented Seeley is persevering, and now that he has run out of options might be able to stick to the roster for more than two weeks at a time. Yet, his track record with the bat doesn’t hit at future success. A free swinger that hits few home runs and strikes out a lot, Seeley leaves much to be desired.

On disabled list: No major league players, but A SP Roger Kincheloe (our 2014 top pick) and A MR Enrique Morales will be on the minor league DL until at least late June with elbow woes.

Otherwise unavailable: Nobody.

Other roster movement:
MR George Youngblood, 29, B:L, T:L (1-0, 2.89 ERA | 6-1, 3.90 ERA, 2 SV) – waived and DFA’ed; while all our left-handed relievers have their control issues, Youngblood’s walks and strikeouts are almost even and he just can’t be relied on.
MR Josh Gibson, 29, B:R, T:R (1-0, 4.32 ERA | 14-9, 3.76 ERA) – waived and DFA’ed; was useful as middle reliever for a year or two, but has not shown the ability to get people out either in Portland or St. Pete in 2014.
C Tom McNeela, 26, B:L, T:R (.167, 1 HR, 1 RBI | .243, 1 HR, 13 RBI) – waived and DFA’ed; middling defensively, not a real game changer offensively, and waived on Opening Day for the third year in a row. Over the last three years, he’s had 91 AB and 1 RBI.
RF/LF/1B Jimmy Fucito, 26, B:R, T:R (.295, 2 HR, 5 RBI | .268, 4 HR, 16 RBI) – waived and DFA’ed; not much of a defender, and certainly not much of a batter.
2B/SS/3B/1B/RF Palmer Taylor, 31, B:L, T:R (.255, 1 HR, 19 RBI | .245, 4 HR, 45 RBI) – optioned to Alley Cats; if a 31-year old utility player still has options, it’s probably a first indicator of lackluster skill. Showed a rather poor bat in 2014, and we sacrifice our second super utility player for a more balanced bench, giving Walt Canning (who would not have options) the nod to stay on the roster.

Opening day lineup:
(Vs. RHP: CF Carmona – 2B Sambrano – LF Richards – 1B Murphy – 3B Nunley – RF Bednarski – C Alexander – SS McKnight – P Brown)
Vs. LHP: CF Carmona – 2B Sambrano – 1B Murphy – LF Richards – RF Bednarski – 3B Nunley – C Margolis – SS Canning – P Brown

Looks like we open the season against a left-hander in Chester Graham. Whether Danny Margolis actually gets the Opening Day assignment is still not decided on the management level, since I know my boys and this might turn into an issue of hurt feelings before the Crusaders can build a 12-game lead.

OFF SEASON CHANGES:

There weren’t that many, really. Most of the changes in personnel had already occurred in the middle of the 2014 season and just stuck through the winter. Jon Merritt and Ron Sakellaris are the primary Critters to leave the team, and when your primary departures are a backup infielder (as veteran as he might be) and a reliever, then it was a calm winter. The uninspired offseason saw the Raccoons add 1.1 WAR eventually, mediocre enough for 10th of all teams.

Top 5: Crusaders (+8.3), Canadiens (+7.8), Knights (+5.5), Pacifics (+4.2), Capitals (+4.0)
Bottom 5: Miners (-4.0), Loggers (-5.5), Bayhawks (-5.5), Wolves (-6.0), Falcons (-6.1)

PREDICTION TIME:

Last year I guessed that the Raccoons would be irrelevant – which ultimately was true – but I didn’t quite imagine how irrelevant you can be while you win 97 games. It was the first time ever we won 90+ games and finished more than five games out of the division winner. Also, the Loggers, Indians, and Titans were completely meaningless for the overall proceedings, just as anticipated.

This year, there’s still no hope for the Loggers. The Indians and Titans have a few interesting young players, but it’s not enough by far. The Elks are improved, but not dramatically, and the Raccoons are mostly just a year older. Even if they could replicate the 97-65 finish, with the way the Crusaders kept adding to the roster, the Raccoons would still finish far out. Realistically, there are enough question marks to aging and/or ailing pitchers and the overall offensive production – which was embarrassing again in 2014 – that the Raccoons should be expected to drop back a bit. I see them more in the 90-72 area, and again 15 games out or more.

PLAYER DEVELOPMENT:

The Raccoons system has been ravaged by promotions to the big league roster just as well as through trades, which ultimately proved futile. Last year, we ranked 16th among the 24 teams, with ten prospects ranked in the top 200. 12 months later, the Coons are down to 22nd place with their farm, with lots of players having dropped off the ranks for one reason or another. The following players were ranked for the Raccoons last year but no longer are: #19 Graham Wasserman (traded), #46 Vic Mercado (traded), #56 Tony Viera (traded), #100 Edgar Hernandez (traded), #116 Jason Bergquist (service time), #150 Ernesto Lozano (traded), #188 Gary Dupes (inept), and #199 Danny Margolis (service time);

47th (new) – A SP Ricky Martinez, 20 – 2011 international free agent signed by Raccoons
91st (+23) – AAA SP Jeff Magnotta, 21 – 2012 first round pick by the Raccoons
149th (new) – A SP David Tucci, 23 – 2012 ninth round pick by the Condors, signed as minor-league free agent
163rd (new) – INT OF Ricky Cruz, 19 – international discovery by the Raccoons (Juan Calderón)
168th (new) – AAA MR Francisquo Bocanegra, 25 – international discovery by the Wolves, signed as minor-league free agent
192nd (new) – AA CF Alex Duarte, 21 – 2011 eighth round pick by the Raccoons

No, I can’t draft. Stop asking.

The top 5 overall prospects this year are DEN SP Tommy Weintraub, NAS 1B John Muller, NYC 2B Tony Casillas, TIJ SP Andrew Gudeman, and SAL OF Justin Quinn (last year’s #1).

Next: first pitch.