[Westheim]

2016 PORTLAND RACCOONS – Opening Day Roster (first set shows 2015 numbers, second set overall; players with an * are off season acquisitions):

SP Jonathan Toner, 25, B:R, T:R (18-5, 2.16 ERA | 41-16, 2.43 ERA) – Jonny’s Pitcher of the Year campaign in 2015 saw him miss the triple crown by a single measly win, while leading the league not only in strikeouts (254; breaking Nick Brown’s franchise mark for a single season), but also WHIP (0.81!). He throws pure filth, and walked only 41 batters – a real ace if there ever was one.
SP Nick Brown, 38, B:L, T:L (17-9, 2.94 ERA | 200-117, 2.85 ERA) – the flash is gone with Nick Brown, who in 2014 came back from injury with much less velocity, stuff, and most notably strikeouts. But despite all that he has lost (which includes a number of franchise records now owned by Toner), he still ranks in the top 10 of the ERA leaderboard, undoing base path trouble with groundballs instead of strikeouts. His home runs allowed have also gone down considerably since 2014. Enters the season with exactly 1,000 walks against 2,968 strikeouts and needs to pitch 160 innings to trigger a $1.8M vesting option for 2017. His hamstrings are an issue, leaving him to abandon three starts in ’15.
SP Hector Santos, 27, B:S, T:R (9-11, 2.96 ERA | 52-47, 3.47 ERA) – while setting new career bests in ERA and strikeouts, Hector was the main victim of the Raccoons’ lackluster offense in 2015, which left him with a losing record despite a sub-3 ERA. His slider is the bane of batting, but unfortunately he tends to leave things hanging over the middle from time to time to get clonkered. He’s allowed 86 homers in 907 innings, with a career-high of 30 dingers in 2013, which then led the league.
SP Tadasu Abe *, 24, B:R, T:R (rookie) – signed as international free agent, Abe has a multitude of decent-to-strong pitches that lets him fool the hitters endlessly, while also generating a lot of groundballs with his cutter; might be undervalued as a fourth starter.
SP A.J. Bartels *, 30, B:R, T:R (9-12, 4.52 ERA | 63-69, 4.48 ERA) – signed as free agent and picked out mostly for the important fifth starter qualities, which include MT/9 – Manager’s Tears per nine innings. Decent curveball/forkball combo in addition to his decent fastball, but occasionally will get taken over the fence. Won two rings with the Crusaders.

MU John Korb *, 30, B:R, T:R (0-0, 1.93 ERA | 17-14, 6.03 ERA, 2 SV) – a throw-in in the deal that brought in Adam Young, Korb would have been removed from the roster if the Raccoons could have signed right-hander Lou Cannon in time for the start of the season. Not suited for more than mopping up in blowouts.
MU Chris Munroe *, 23, B:R, T:R (rookie) – picked from the Aces in the rule 5 draft, Munroe might not be major league ready at all, but we do know that he dominated AA batting in 2015 and might have done well enough against AAA hitters as well. Throws a nasty knuckle curve that sometimes is left hanging, which is exactly the point when he starts giving up runs.
MR Seung-mo Chun *, 27, B:S, T:R (rookie) – the second international free agent that the Coons signed over the winter is from Korea and works with a fastball/slider combo that produces grounders to feed to our middle infielders.
MR Manobu Sugano, 31, B:L, T:L (1-2, 2.74 ERA, 1 SV| 12-9, 2.44 ERA, 7 SV) – his ever more ridiculous splits should see Sugano avoid right-handed batting as much as possible as a real situational lefty. Has appeared in 74 or more games in all of his four major league seasons, including 78 games in ’15 while then pitching a career-low 49.1 innings.
MR Chris Mathis, 29, B:R, T:R (3-2, 2.38 ERA, 1 SV | 10-4, 2.87 ERA, 3 SV) – a rare case of a player breaking out in his late 20s, Mathis appeared in 70 games in his age 28 season, more than in his previous big league assignments combined, and did a really good job fooling hitters with that curve.
MR Kevin Beaver *, 32, B:L, T:L (6-2, 4.81 ERA | 41-47, 3.84 ERA, 51 SV) – this general-purpose left-hander was signed as free agent to get through innings in which the opposition will alternate left- and right-handed hitters, since he has much more balanced splits than Sugano.
CL Ron Thrasher, 28, B:L, T:L (5-2, 3.64 ERA, 5 SV | 20-15, 2.66 ERA, 14 SV) – blessed with an executioner’s stuff, but saddled with a drunkard’s control, Thrasher has struck out 70+ in every full season, while missing 30 walks only once (in 2011). Will try to replace the departed Angel Casas, who was never somebody to walk the bases full in the ninth inning.

C Alonso Baca *, 35, B:L, T:R (.298, 3 HR, 7 RBI | .260, 114 HR, 454 RBI) – this free agent addition has not been the primary catcher for any team since 2011, and also does not exactly excel defensively; him and Margolis might split time fairly evenly unless one of them slumps.
C Danny Margolis, 25, B:R, T:R (.238, 4 HR, 21 RBI | .243, 5 HR, 28 RBI) – hardly managed to hit a ball in the second half of 2015, seeing him drop in favor after his good-enough debut late in 2014. Would actually be the better defensive catcher compared to Baca, with a really good throwing arm.

1B Adam Young *, 27, B:L, T:L (.328, 27 HR, 117 RBI | .310, 86 HR, 374 RBI) – acquired in trade with the Bayhawks, this defensively solid left-hander is a pure slugger that inflicts hurt to the tune of 25 homers and 110+ RBI annually on opposing pitching. The Raccoons really need someone like that.
2B/3B/1B Howard Jones *, 30, B:R, T:R (.255, 11 HR, 68 RBI | .264, 32 HR, 377 RBI) – this versatile infielder was brought in after trading with the Cyclones and will be the new second base starter. Just last year he increased his power, but bought that with about 30 points of average, and we’re not sure whether that’s a good thing. He spent most of his career with the Aces.
SS/2B/3B Ronnie McKnight, 25, B:L, T:R (.278, 20 HR, 91 RBI | .290, 20 HR, 98 RBI) – when acquiring McKnight from the Cyclones last winter we expected to get strong defense (and he won the Gold Glove), but didn’t quite see him also claim the Platinum Stick at short *and* Rookie of the Year honors. He’s just raw fun to have in the lineup!
3B Matt Nunley, 25, B:L, T:R (.324, 12 HR, 66 RBI | .298, 20 HR, 123 RBI) – 2014 ROTY Nunley had a great season in his sophomore year, which also saw him hit 31 doubles and for a .837 OPS. He makes a legit case for batting third in the order.
1B/LF/2B/CF/RF/SS Sandy Sambrano, 28, B:S, T:R (.245, 3 HR, 36 RBI | .268, 10 HR, 241 RBI) – Sandy combines versatility with a steady singles bat and great speed; he has amassed 157 stolen bases so far. Unfortunately we added new players on all of his preferred positions, so he’s kind of the odd one out right now after logging 530+ PA in each of his last three seasons.
2B Jason Bergquist, 26, B:R, T:R (.219, 5 HR, 27 RBI | .233, 8 HR, 59 RBI) – despite not doing anything worth getting excited about, Bergquist somehow retained his spot on the team. Good defensive second baseman, but his stick instills sadness in our home crowd.

LF/RF R.J. DeWeese *, 29, B:L, T:L (.233, 35 HR, 109 RBI | .249, 193 HR, 621 RBI) – handed the biggest contract the Raccoons ever shelled out at $23.1M, DeWeese represents a long-term bet on the franchise’s success for the next seven years. He goes after pitches like a mad man, which has resulted in two home run trophies over in the FL as well as two thorny strikeout crowns.
LF/CF/RF Ricardo Carmona, 24, B:L, T:R (.332, 0 HR, 47 RBI | .328, 9 HR, 183 RBI) – the Jose Morales bonanza a few years ago has already worked out when you look at this young Panamanian pony, racing along the beach and gnawing through opposing pitchers. He missed out on the SB title after winning it in 2013 and 2014, and also finished runner-up in the batting race for the second year in a row. His defense isn’t quite what got Neil Reece into the Hall of Fame, but he’s not killing anybody out there in center. If he could just stay healthy… he has yet to start 140 games in a season.
RF/LF Ron Richards, 30, B:L, T:L (.270, 22 HR, 73 RBI | .256, 81 HR, 306 RBI) – the only one of the diabolically pathetic assumed slugging quartet to make it into the new season with the Raccoons, Ron Richards certainly did not hurt the team with his .805 OPS, although it was a noticeable step down from 2014. We’ll see whether his 5-yr, $8.5M extension will kill us after all. His defense is also an issue and he will be subbed out frequently late in games if the Coons are just barely ahead.
RF/LF/CF Juan Medina *, 32, B:S, T:R (.317, 2 HR, 67 RBI | .293, 2 HR, 92 RBI) – acquired from the Elks after a breakout season at age 31, which in fact saw him collect more at-bats than in his previous career combined, Medina will play primarily as a defensive backup, but also figures to collect a number of starts against left-handed pitching.
RF/LF/1B Danny Ochoa, 27, B:L, T:L (.252, 4 HR, 22 RBI | .252, 4 HR, 22 RBI) – was impressive early after a midseason callup in 2015, but faded in the last two months. Not much of a defender. Since he’s the only natural left-handed bat off the bench on most days that doesn’t need to be held back to sub for Richards defensively (which figures to be Medina’s job), he might mostly hit for the pitcher in low-key spots or when the team is already losing. Probably replaceable.

On disabled list:
MR George Youngblood, 30, B:L, T:L (0-1, 11.25 ERA | 6-2, 4.24 ERA, 2 SV) – will labor on a torn flexor tendon for another three months, but had not been on the 40-man roster at the time of injury.

Otherwise unavailable: Nobody.

Other roster movement:
C Tom McNeela, 27, B:L, T:R (.133, 0 HR, 0 RBI | .235, 1 HR, 13 RBI) – waived and DFA’ed; every year same old, same old: McNeela is being DFA’ed on Opening Day for the fourth straight year. Middling defensively, and with 1 RBI in the last four years combined in 106 AB.
3B/SS Walt Canning, 30, B:R, T:R (.263, 1 HR, 11 RBI | .254, 8 HR, 83 RBI) – waived and DFA’ed; not much of a batter or shortstop, Canning chipped a few singles here and there at times, but never made even a slight impact since debuting in 2010.

Opening day lineup:
Vs. RHP: CF Carmona – SS McKnight – 3B Nunley – 1B Young – LF DeWeese – RF Richards – 2B Jones – C Baca – P Toner
(Vs. LHP: CF Carmona – RF Medina – 3B Nunley – 1B Young – SS Jones – LF DeWeese – 2B Bergquist – C Margolis – P Toner)

The lineup vs. lefties looks just bad, but you try to come up with something when you have seven left-handers in your primary lineup. Jones batting ahead of DeWeese is just wrong, and batting Medina second is also a folly at best, but the required personnel to build a more balanced lineup is just not there…

OFF SEASON CHANGES:

After a calm offseason before the 2014 campaign, the Raccoons start the 2015 season with a whopping 11 new players on the roster. Some additions can be labeled big, like Young and DeWeese, some small, like Medina, and some you don’t really know what you’ll get, like Abe, Chun, Korb, and Munroe. While the lineup should – goddamnit! – finally be improved to contend for a spot in the upper third in runs scored, and the rotation looks still solid at the back end, the bullpen will be a constant source of tears this season. At least BNN liked our offseason wheelings and dealings, ranking ups tops in WAR gains, which of course does not assign any value to Abe and Chun, f.e.;

Top 5: Raccoons (+8.4), Gold Sox (+8.2), Condors (+5.7), Cyclones (+5.6), Stars (+4.0)
Bottom 5: Buffaloes (-4.5), Bayhawks (-4.9), Loggers (-5.2), Blue Sox (-9.0), Aces (-9.5)

PREDICTION TIME:

Last year I saw the Raccoons somewhere around 90-72 and 15 games behind the Crusaders, but they actually took their second-biggest plunge in terms of wins from one year to the next ever, dropping 19 games to 78-84 and finished fifth in the North, 22 behind the Crusaders, and also behind the Loggers, which always hurts.

This 2016 roster could constitute an always desirable rebuild in sixth gear. The Raccoons were lucky enough to get rid of enough huge, useless contracts either through free agency (Murphy, Reya, Bednarski, Entwistle, Casas), or trade (Alexander), or the player’s spiritual death (Dickerson) that they could pursue any player they wanted in free agency, and they even got all of their key men, and at times more than they could have hoped for (Young!). And the best thing is: only the DeWeese signing actually cost a draft pick, and it was only a second-round pick. There are still compensation-eligible free agents out there, but the situation on Opening Day is such that the Raccoons would have the #9, #30, #45, #50, and #51 picks in the June draft, which would produce a rich load for normal teams, and another funny story of failure for the Critters, but we have to get there first…

What can this team do? First, the Crusaders have not lost that much outside of Stanton Martin and Pancho Trevino (the one who’s breathing down Brownie’s neck in the career strikeout table), and they added ****ing Curtis Tobitt and Winston Jones. They could just as well win 100 games yet again, and I don’t think the Raccoons can even remotely stink up to that.

True, the offense is much improved (now that’s an old record…), and if everybody keeps hitting the way they hit in 2014 and previous years, the Coons should challenge for five runs per game and a top 3 value in runs scored. However, our lineup is horrendously lop-sided, we will have no production from the catcher’s spot, and then there’s the pitching. First, we kind of know what to expect from Toner and Santos (greatness!) as well as Bartels (low-4 ERA, if things go well), but we have two wild cards in the rotation in the Japanese free agent Abe and in Brownie, who is definitely getting older and certainly not getting better. And then there’s the bullpen, which currently has no qualified setup man, a closer that will walk the bases loaded with no warning, and two or three mop-up guys. Even if Abe clicks and Brownie cheats the Death of Pitchers another year, this bullpen will cost the Coons wins frequently and they can not expect to compete this way. The Raccoons will finish 90-72 (and this time I mean it) and safely behind the Crusaders, perhaps battling the Elks for second place.

PLAYER DEVELOPMENT:

The Coons’ ravaged farm system that almost bottomed out in 22nd place last year, had a mild renaissance in the newest prospect rankings, but it’s probably for the wrong reasons. First, last year we had only six top 200 prospects. That number is up to ten now, but only two of those are in the top 100, and only one of those is actually a prospect. See below…

Ranked last year but not anymore are #91 Jeff Magnotta (inept) and #168 Francisquo Bocanegra (too old).

26th (+137) – A OF Ricky Cruz, 20 – international discovery by the Raccoons (Juan Calderón)
51st (new) – ML SP Tadasu Abe, 24 – 2015 international free agent signed by Raccoons
103rd (-56) – AA SP Ricky Martinez, 21 – 2011 international free agent signed by Raccoons
148th (new) – A 1B/2B Tony Velasquez, 20 – international discovery by the Raccoons (Juan Calderón)
163rd (new) – A SS/2B Sam Armetta, 19 – 2014 third round pick by the Raccoons
169th (new) – A SP Danny Arguello, 19 – 2013 international free agent signed by Raccoons
174th (-25) – AAA SP David Tucci, 24 – 2012 ninth round pick by the Condors, signed as minor-league free agent
197th (new) – AA OF Andy Bareford, 21 – 2013 supplemental round pick by the Raccoons
199th (new) – INT SS/2B Ismael Pastor, 16 – 2015 international free agent signed by Raccoons
200th (-8) – AAA CF Alex Duarte, 22 – 2011 eighth round pick by the Raccoons

No, I still can’t draft. Stop asking.

The top 5 overall prospects this year are SAL OF/1B/2B Quinn Jewell, DEN SP Tommy Weintraub (#1 last year), DEN SP Warren Polito, TIJ SP Andrew Gudeman (also #4 last year), and NAS INF John Muller (#2 last year).

Next: first pitch.